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Cited by 67Obesity, Physical Activity, DietRegulation of Appetite and ObesityPhysical Activity and Health

Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure

Open access
Speakman, John R., de Jong, Jasper M. A., Sinha, Srishti, Westerterp, Klaas R., Yamada, Yosuke, Sagayama, Hiroyuki, Ainslie, Philip N., Anderson, Liam J. +72 more·2023·Nature Metabolism
DOI 10.1038/s42255-023-00782-2PMC PMC10445668
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Abstract

Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance1,2. Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated3,4. Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor. Using a database of doubly labelled water energy expenditure measurements spanning more than 30 years, Speakman and colleagues show that total energy expenditure in humans has declined over time, while adjusted physical activity energy expenditure has increased over time.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s42255-023-00782-2

Cites

48 of 48 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 10 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    In males, unadjusted total energy expenditure was not significantly related to the date of measurement.

    “In males there was no significant relationship between TEE and the date of measurement (date coded as months since Jan 1982) (r2 = 0.0015, p = 0.14 (ns): Fig S2a)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In males, adjusted basal energy expenditure declined significantly over time, by about 14.7% over 30 years.

    “The adjusted BEE showed a highly significant decline over time (Fig 2b: r2 = 0.064, p < 10−9) with the gradient of 2.67 kJ/month (95%CI = ±0.82 kJ/month) being equivalent to an average fall in BEE of 0.96 MJ/day (14.7%) over 30 years (95%CI = ±0.15 MJ/day).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.
  • Findingown data

    In females, adjusted total energy expenditure declined significantly over time, by about 5.6% over 30 years.

    “In females as well, there was a significant decline in the adjusted TEE over time (Fig 3a: r2 = 0.006, p < .00002). The gradient of the effect 1.42 kJ/month was equivalent to a reduction in TEE over 30 years of 0.51 MJ (95%CI = ±0.22 MJ/day) or 5.6%.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.
  • Findingown data

    In males, unadjusted basal energy expenditure declined significantly over time.

    “Contrasting the lack of significant change in TEE, there was a significant decline in BEE over time (Fig S2b) (r2 = 0.029, p = 0.000018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In females, adjusted activity energy expenditure increased significantly over time, by about 0.42 MJ/day over 30 years.

    “In contrast, and again similarly to the males, adjusted AEE significantly increased over time (Fig 3c: r2 = 0.0063, p = 0.026). The gradient of increase in AEE of 1.16 kJ/month was equivalent to an increase in AEE of 0.42 MJ/day over 30 years (95% CI = ± 0.37 MJ/day).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 8
  • May combine two claims. 8

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    Body weight increased over the measurement period in both males and females.

    “In both males and females body weight increased over time (Figure S1) reflecting the secular trend in body weight over the same interval.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In both sexes, total, basal, and activity energy expenditure were dependent on body mass and BMI.

    “All the energy expenditure variables (TEE, BEE and AEE) in both sexes were dependent on body mass (BM) and BMI (illustrated for BMI in supplementary Fig 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In mice, higher intake of saturated fatty acids was associated with higher energy expenditure, while MUFA and PUFA intake were not significantly associated.

    “Only intake of saturated fatty acids was significant (SAT: F = 11.05, p = 0.002 (Fig 4B); MUFA: F = 1.38, p = 0.245; PUFA: F = 0.17, p = 0.686) with higher levels of SAT linked to higher energy expenditure (Fig 4B).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In males, unadjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time but the change was not statistically significant.

    “the absence of a change in TEE and declining BEE was reflected by an increase in AEE over time, but this did not reach significance (Fig S2c) (r2 = 0.003, p = 0.16).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In females, unadjusted total, basal, and activity energy expenditure did not change significantly over time.

    “In females, unadjusted levels of TEE, BEE and AEE did not change significantly over time (supplementary Fig S3, Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In females, adjusted basal energy expenditure declined by about 2% over 30 years but the change was not statistically significant.

    “This decline was paralleled by a reduction in adjusted BEE of 2.0% but this did not reach significance (Fig 3b: r2 = 0.0015, p > .05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The doubly-labelled water method is a validated isotope-based technique for measuring free-living energy demands.

    “The doubly-labelled water (DLW) method is a validated isotope based methodology for the measurement of free-living energy demands13.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [13] Speakman, J. R. Doubly-Labelled Water: Theory and Practice (Springer New York, 1997).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Obesity results from a prolonged state of positive energy balance.

    “Obesity is caused by prolonged positive energy balance1,2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [1] Hall, K. D. et al. Energy balance and body weight regulation: a useful concept for understanding the obesity epidemic. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 95, 989–994 (2012). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [2] Hill, J. O., Wyatt, H. R. & Peters, J. C. Energy balance and obesity. Circulation 126, 126–132 (2012). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The mouse work was conducted only in males of one strain and a single age, so it may not be broadly applicable.

    “The mouse work we performed showing potential links of diet to metabolism was only conducted in males of one strain and a single age and may not be more broadly applicable.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The data are cross-sectional, which limits causal inferences from the associations.

    “The data are cross-sectional which limits the inferences that can be made regarding causality in the associations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The study's large sample of individuals from the US and Europe measured with doubly-labelled water allowed detection of a small but biologically meaningful signal.

    “A strength of this study is the large sample of individuals over a restricted geographical area (US and Europe) measured using a complex methodology. This has allowed us to detect a small but nevertheless biologically meaningful signal.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The studies in the analysis were not designed for the current analysis, so unadjusted factors may explain the trends.

    “However, it is important to be aware that the studies were not designed with the current analysis in mind. Hence while we have adjusted for differences in age and body composition there may be other factors that differed over time that we did not adjust for and that could explain the trends we found.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Overall, the data show a significant reduction in adjusted total energy expenditure over the last three decades, traced to a decline in basal energy expenditure rather than any reduction in activity energy expenditure linked to declining physical activity.

    “Overall our data show that there has been a significant reduction in adjusted TEE over the last three decades, which can be traced to a decline in BEE rather than any reduction in AEE linked to declining physical activity levels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Alterations in the intake of saturated relative to unsaturated fat over the last 100 years may have contributed to the decline in basal energy expenditure.

    “This suggests that alterations in the intake of saturated relative to unsaturated fat over the last 100 years may have contributed to the decline in BEE reported here, although clearly we should be cautious about extrapolations from males of a single inbred mouse strain and further studies in humans are required.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time in both sexes, which is counterintuitive given reported declines in work-time physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior.

    “The observation that adjusted AEE (and PAL in males) has significantly increased over time is counter intuitive given the patterns established in worktime physical activity and the suggested progressive increase in sedentary behavior4,6–8.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [4] Church, T. S. et al. Trends over 5 decades in US occupation-related physical activity and their associations with obesity. PLoS ONE 6, e19657 (2011). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [6] Thorp, A. A., Owen, N., Neuhaus, M. & Dunstan, D. W. Sedentary behaviours and subsequent health outcomes in adults. A systematic review of longitudinal studies, 1996–2011. Am. J. Prev. Med. 41, 207–215 (2011). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [7] Gordon-Larsen, P., Nelson, M. C. & Popkin, B. M. Longitudinal physical activity and sedentary behavior trends—adolescence to adulthood. Am. J. Prev. Med. 27, 277–283 (2004). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [8] Pietilainen, K. H. et al. Physical inactivity and obesity: a vicious circle. Obesity 16, 409–414 (2008). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.
    • Rests on an assumption: The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.
15 of 15

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The observed decline in basal metabolic rate or basal energy expenditure over time is not an artifact of methodological changes in measurement.

    “It is also possible that the long-term reduction in BMR represents methodological artefacts.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The trends over time are not explained by unmeasured factors that differed over time.

    “there may be other factors that differed over time that we did not adjust for and that could explain the trends we found.”
2 of 2

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Two different counts are given for participants with BEE measurements

    Minor

    The methods overview says BEE was available for 1429 individuals, whereas the abstract reports 1432. The later sex-specific counts also total 1432.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Speakman, J. R. Doubly-Labelled Water: Theory and Practice (Springer New York, 1997).
  2. Speakman, J. R. & Pontzer, H. Quantifying physical activity energy expenditure based on doubly-labelled water and basal metabolism calorimetry: what are we actually measuring? Curr. Opin. Clin. Nutr. Metab. Care (in the press).

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Authors
Speakman, J. R., de Jong, J. M. A., Sinha, S., Westerterp, K. R., Yamada, Y., Sagayama, H., Ainslie, P. N., Anderson, L. J., Arab, L., Bedu-Addo, K., Blanc, S., Bonomi, A. G., Bovet, P., Brage, S., Buchowski, M. S., Butte, N. F., Camps, S. G. J. A., Cooper, J. A., Cooper, R., Das, S. K., Davies, P. S. W., Dugas, L. R., Ekelund, U., Entringer, S., Forrester, T., Fudge, B. W., Gillingham, M., Ghosh, S., Goris, A. H., Gurven, M., Halsey, L. G., Hambly, C., Haisma, H. H., Hoffman, D., Hu, S., Joosen, A. M., Kaplan, J. L., Katzmarzyk, P., Kraus, W. E., Kushner, R. F., Leonard, W. R., Löf, M., Martin, C. K., Matsiko, E., Medin, A. C., Meijer, E. P., Neuhouser, M. L., Nicklas, T. A., Ojiambo, R. M., Pietiläinen, K. H., Plange-Rhule, J., Plasqui, G., Prentice, R. L., Racette, S. B., Raichlen, D. A., Ravussin, E., Redman, L. M., Roberts, S. B., Rudolph, M. C., Sardinha, L. B., Schuit, A. J., Silva, A. M., Stice, E., Urlacher, S. S., Valenti, G., Van Etten, L. M., Van Mil, E. A., Wood, B. M., Yanovski, J. A., Yoshida, T., Zhang, X., Murphy-Alford, A. J., Loechl, C. U., Kurpad, A., Luke, A. H., Pontzer, H., Rodeheffer, M. S., Rood, J., Schoeller, D. A., & Wong, W. W.
Affiliations
  • University of Aberdeen (GB)
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (AT)
  • Maastricht University (NL)
  • National Institute of Health and Nutrition (JP)
  • University of Tsukuba (JP)
  • Liverpool John Moores University (GB)
  • University of Birmingham (GB)
  • University of California, Los Angeles (US)
  • Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (GH)
  • Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CH)
  • Vanderbilt University (US)
  • Baylor College of Medicine (US)
  • University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
  • Loyola University Chicago (US)
  • Tufts University (US)
  • The University of Queensland (AU)
  • University of Cape Town (ZA)
  • Norwegian School of Sport Sciences (NO)
  • University of California, Irvine (US)
  • University of the West Indies (JM)
  • University of Glasgow (GB)
  • Oregon Health & Science University (US)
  • St.John's Medical College Hospital (IN)
  • OnePlanet Research Center (NL)
  • University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
  • University of Roehampton (GB)
  • University of Groningen (NL)
  • Beijing Technology and Business University (CN)
  • Yale University (US)
  • Pennington Biomedical Research Center (US)
  • Duke University (US)
  • Northwestern University (US)
  • Linköping University (SE)
  • University of Rwanda (RW)
  • University of Oslo (NO)
  • University of Washington (US)
  • Moi University (KE)
  • Helsinki University Hospital (FI)
  • Washington University in St. Louis (US)
  • University of Southern California (US)
  • OU Health (US)
  • Tilburg University (NL)
  • University of Lisbon (PT)
  • Stanford University (US)
  • Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CA)
  • National Institutes of Health (US)
Corresponding author
  • Speakman, John R.
  • Westerterp, Klaas R.
  • Yamada, Yosuke
  • Sagayama, Hiroyuki
  • Kurpad, Anura
  • Luke, Amy H.
  • Pontzer, Herman
  • Rodeheffer, Matthew S.
  • Rood, Jennifer
  • Schoeller, Dale A.
  • Wong, William W.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Metabolism
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2023-04-26
Volume
5
Issue
4
Pages
579-588
ISSN
2522-5812 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s42255-023-00782-2
PMC
PMC10445668
OpenAlex
W4367048865
Cited by
67
References
48
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 9
FWCI
16.90
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Metabolism (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Research portal (Tilburg University) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • Digital Commons-TMC (Texas Medical Center) (submittedVersion)
  • Civil War Book Review (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
  • Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
  • Research Publications (Maastricht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
  • IRIS (submittedVersion)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • CAS | Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Neuropsychiatric Modulation (CAS 153E11KYSB20190045)
  • Forskningsrådet om Hälsa, Arbetsliv och Välfärd (VR 2018-06735)
  • Wellcome Trust (IA/CRC/19/1/610006)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Regulation of Appetite and Obesity
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Physical Activity and Health
Keywords
total energy expenditure, basal energy expenditure, basal metabolic rate, physical activity energy expenditure, secular trends, obesity, energy balance, doubly labeled water, body composition, sex differences
MeSH terms
Basal Metabolism, Energy Metabolism, Health Expenditures, Female, Humans, Male, Obesity, United States, Exercise

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