Cited by 104Agricultural Science and FertilizationAgricultural Innovations and PracticesAgricultural economics and policies

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Fertilizer and grain prices constrain food production in sub-Saharan Africa

Bonilla-Cedrez, Camila, Chamberlin, Jordan, Hijmans, Robert J.·2021·Nature Food

DOI 10.1038/s43016-021-00370-1

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Abstract

Crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa are much lower than what is attainable given the environmental conditions and available technologies. Closing this 'ecological yield gap' is considered an important food security and rural welfare goal. It is not clear, however, whether it is economically sensible for farmers to substantially increase crop yields. Here we estimate the local yield response of maize to fertilizer across sub-Saharan Africa with an empirical machine-learning model based on 12,081 trial observations and with a mechanistic model. We show that the average 'economic yield gap'-the difference between current yield and profit-maximizing yield-is about one-quarter of the ecological yield gap. Furthermore, although maize yields could be profitably doubled, the economic incentives to do so may be weak. Our findings suggest that agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa could be supported by complementary agronomic approaches to improve soil fertility, lowering the fertilizer cost, and by spatial targeting of fertilizer recommendations.

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Authors: Bonilla-Cedrez, C., Chamberlin, J., & Hijmans, R. J.
Affiliations: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE)
University of California, Davis (US)
ORCID: Bonilla-Cedrez, Camila
Chamberlin, Jordan
Hijmans, Robert J.
Venue: Nature Food
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2021-10-07
Volume: 2
Issue: 10
Pages: 766-772
ISSN: 2662-1355 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00370-1
OpenAlex: W3203527942
Cited by: 104
References: 71
Citations by year: 2026: 22 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 2
FWCI: 9.20
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/text-and-data-mining (tdm)
www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/text-and-data-mining (vor)
Locations: Nature Food (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-008260)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Agricultural Science and Fertilization
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Innovations and Practices
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords: fertilizer prices, grain prices, agricultural intensification, soil fertility, food security, sub-Saharan Africa

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Fertilizer and grain prices constrain food production in sub-Saharan Africa

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