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Fertilizer and grain prices constrain food production in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
Crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa are much lower than what is attainable given the environmental conditions and available technologies. Closing this 'ecological yield gap' is considered an important food security and rural welfare goal. It is not clear, however, whether it is economically sensible for farmers to substantially increase crop yields. Here we estimate the local yield response of maize to fertilizer across sub-Saharan Africa with an empirical machine-learning model based on 12,081 trial observations and with a mechanistic model. We show that the average 'economic yield gap'-the difference between current yield and profit-maximizing yield-is about one-quarter of the ecological yield gap. Furthermore, although maize yields could be profitably doubled, the economic incentives to do so may be weak. Our findings suggest that agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa could be supported by complementary agronomic approaches to improve soil fertility, lowering the fertilizer cost, and by spatial targeting of fertilizer recommendations.
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“Together with recent analyses of nutrient management and input gaps in SSA (Bonilla-Cedrez et al 2021, Aramburu-Merlos et al 2024), this suggests that adaptation strategies should jointly manage productivity gains and climate risk, rather than treating them separately.”
Rong, L., Jia, Q., Gong, K., Duan, F., Li, X., Li, C., Liu, P., Lu, D., Zhao, G., Yao, N., et al. (2026) · Journal of Integrative Agriculture · doi:10.1016/j.jia.2026.02.005 · Cited by 1
Wang, Y., Chen, C., & Wen, Z. (2026) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127584 · Cited by 1
The impact of climate change on food security: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Samka, F. K., Huang, L., & Ren, Y. (2026) · International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability · doi:10.1080/14735903.2026.2680626 · Cited by 1
Diverse trajectories of global fertilizer use in the post-Green Revolution period
Ray, D. K., Sapkota, T. B., & Dobermann, A. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae9493 · Cited by 1
Plot size misperceptions and soil health: A New research agenda
Murphy, D. M. A., Simons, A. M., Pypers, P., et al. (2023) · Soil Security · doi:10.1016/j.soisec.2023.100117 · Cited by 1
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Leonardo, W., Silva, . V., Nagarajan, L., & Singh, U. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5922699/v1 · Cited by 1
Falconnier, G. N., Leroux, L., Beillouin, D., et al. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4171515
Self-citationIdentifying Drivers for Maize Response to Fertilizer in GhanaPreprint
Bindraban, P. S., Kouame, A. K. K., Kissiedu, I. N., et al. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4093525
Kaste, J. A. M., Ji, R., Sydow, P. W., Sawers, R. J. H., & Matthews, M. L. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.01.28.635303
Sherpa, S., Nayak, H. S., Rossiter, D. G., Craufurd, P., Kritee, K., Kumar, V., Paudel, G. P., Peramaiyan, P., Pathak, H. K., Poonia, S. P., et al. (2025) · Environmental Research Food Systems · doi:10.1088/2976-601x/ae1839
Beyond yields: Smallholders’ realities matter for biodiversity
Baudron, F. (2026) · Outlook on Agriculture · doi:10.1177/00307270261423947
“Increasing yield is not the primary objective of many farmers Many farming systems in SSA and elsewhere – and particularly those in biodiversity-rich areas, which tend to be sparsely populated – are limited by labour more than by land (Baudron et al., 2012; Binswanger and McIntire, 1987).”
InfluentialNkhoma, S., Mambosasa, M., Limbe, V., Dunga, S. H., Mahuka, J., & Mwalughali, L. (2026) · World · doi:10.3390/world7030033
Predictive mapping of wholesale crop prices for rural areas in Tanzania
Madaga, L., Chamberlin, J., Gebrekidan, B. H., Mkondiwa, M., Kuboja, N. M., & Silva, . V. (2026) · Q Open · doi:10.1093/qopen/qoag013
Self-citationCost-competitiveness of irrigation and nutrient management strategies for closing global yield gaps
Ren, C., & Rosa, L. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae6710
“For example, studies have quantified irrigation benefits in the U.S. (Partridge et al 2023) and sub-Saharan Africa agriculture (Falchetta et al 2023) and fertilizer price constraints sub-Saharan Africa (Bonilla-Cedrez et al 2021).”
InfluentialWolde, G., Davis, J. G., Nahusenay, G., et al. (2026) · Environmental Research Food Systems · doi:10.1088/2976-601x/ae6c2a
“Moreover, some suggest that inorganic fertilizers alone often provide only limited profitability for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, due to high costs and subpar crop response to fertilizer, especially when SOM levels are low (Bonilla-Cedrez et al 2021, Chivenge et al 2022).”
Leonardo, W., Silva, . V., Nagarajan, L., & Singh, U. (2026) · Experimental Agriculture · doi:10.1017/s0014479726100301
“Climate variability, particularly erratic rainfall, further exacerbate the risks of rainfed maize production (Cairns et al ., 2021; Silva et al ., 2025), often compromising the return on investment in fertilizer use (Bonilla-Cedrez et al ., 2021).”
Kaste, J. A. M., Ji, R., Sydow, P. W., Sawers, R. J. H., & Matthews, M. L. (2026) · PLANT PHYSIOLOGY · doi:10.1093/plphys/kiag327
“Our results show that in both the USA and SSA, the potential profitability of a nitrogen-fixing maize crop is greater than that typically observed with regular nitrogen fertilizer additions, with a VCR of 44.3 vs 3.4 for the USA and a VCR of 10.7 vs 2.3 for SSA, respectively.”
InfluentialLiu, S., Zhang, M., Tong, S., et al. (2026) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115098
Bertone, E., Daraei, H., Moallemi, E. A., & Wolf, J. (2026) · Current Research in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.crsust.2026.100364
Narmandakh, D., Marenya, P., Sileshi, G. W., Drabo, I., Nas, T. M. S., Peter, B. G., Sonder, K., & Snapp, S. (2026) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-026-01705-1
Metadata
- Authors
- Bonilla-Cedrez, C., Chamberlin, J., & Hijmans, R. J.
- Affiliations
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Venue
- Nature Food
- Published
- 2021-10-07
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 766-772
- ISSN
- 2662-1355 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3203527942
- Cited by
- 104
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 2
- FWCI
- 9.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Food (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-008260)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Agricultural Science and Fertilization
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Innovations and Practices
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
- Keywords
- fertilizer prices, grain prices, agricultural intensification, soil fertility, food security, sub-Saharan Africa
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