Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Open accessAbstract
Significance: The question whether sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can be self-sufficient in cereals by 2050 is of global relevance. Currently, SSA is amongst the (sub)continents with the largest gap between cereal consumption and production, whereas its projected tripling demand between 2010 and 2050 is much greater than in other continents. We show that nearly complete closure of the gap between current farm yields and yield potential is needed to maintain the current level of cereal self-sufficiency (approximately 80%) by 2050. For all countries, such yield gap closure requires a large, abrupt acceleration in rate of yield increase. If this acceleration is not achieved, massive cropland expansion with attendant biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions or vast import dependency are to be expected.
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Maize-based farming systems are spread across Africa and provide food to some six to seven hundred million people.
“For instance, maize-based farming systems are spread across Africa and provide food to some six to seven hundred million people (Dixon et al 2001, Van Ittersum et al 2016).”
From The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Africa: a data-driven assessment (2021) · cites this paper as Van Ittersum et al 2016
The Results and Discussion describe rainfed maize as the dominant crop in sub-Saharan Africa, supporting the broad point that maize farming is widespread there. The paper does not say that maize-based farming systems provide food to 600–700 million people; its population and food-demand figures concern five cereals jointly, not maize-based systems. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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- Authors
- van Ittersum, M. K., van Bussel, L. G. J., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., Claessens, L., de Groot, H., Wiebe, K., Mason-D’Croz, D., Yang, H., Boogaard, H., van Oort, P. A. J., van Loon, M. P., Saito, K., Adimo, O., Adjei-Nsiah, S., Agali, A., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Kaizzi, K., Kouressy, M., Makoi, J. H. J. R., Ouattara, K., Tesfaye, K., & Cassman, K. G.
- Affiliations
- Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands;
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US)
- Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915;
- International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (KE)
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands;
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Africa Rice Center, Sustainable Productivity Enhancement Program, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin;
- Africa Rice Center (CI)
- Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (KE)
- International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Tamale, Ghana;
- AGRHYMET Regional Centre, BP 11011 Niamey, Niger;
- Federal University of Technology Minna (NG)
- Crop Science Department, University of Zimbabwe, MP167 Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe;
- National Agricultural Research Laboratories, Kampala Nabweru 7065, Uganda;
- Institut d'Économie Rurale (ML)
- Ministry of Water and Irrigation (TZ)
- Institut de l'Environnement et Recherches Agricoles (BF)
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (ET)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2016-12-12
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- 52
- Pages
- 14964-14969
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5206509
- OpenAlex
- W2560991236
- Cited by
- 899
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 93 · 2025: 82 · 2024: 86 · 2023: 102 · 2022: 106 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 111 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 75 · 2017: 40 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 63.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Open Access Repository of ICRISAT (International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics) (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion)
- Lincoln (University of Nebraska) (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1082050, OPPGD1418)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- food security, sub-Saharan Africa, cereal demand, yield gap, crop intensification, cropping intensity, irrigated agriculture, cropland expansion, grain imports, population growth, food demand projections, spatial upscaling
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Algorithms, Edible Grain, Conservation of Natural Resources, Food Supply, Humans, Regression Analysis, Africa South of the Sahara, Crops, Agricultural, Biodiversity, Nutritional Sciences
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