Risk of BA.5 Infection among Persons Exposed to Previous SARS-CoV-2 Variants
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Abstract
Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.5 subvariant is progressively displacing earlier subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2, in many countries. One possible explanation is the ability of BA.5 to evade immune responses elicited by prior BA.1 and BA.2 infections. The impact of BA.1 infection on the risk of reinfection with BA.5 is a critical issue because adapted vaccines under current clinical development are based on BA.1. We used the national Portuguese COVID-19 registry to analyze the risk of BA.5 infection in individuals without a documented infection or previously infected during periods of distinct variants’ predominance (Wuhan-Hu-1, alpha, delta, BA.1/BA.2). National predominance periods were established according to the national SARS-CoV-2 genetic surveillance data (when one variant represented >90% of the sample isolates). We found that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection reduced the risk for BA.5 infection. The protection effectiveness, related to the uninfected group, for a first infection with Wuhan-Hu-1 was 52.9% (95% CI, 51.9 – 53.9%), for Alpha 54.9% (51.2 – 58.3%), for Delta 62.3% (61.4 – 63.3%), and for BA.1/BA.2 80.0% (79.7 – 80.2%). The results ought to be interpreted in the context of breakthrough infections within a population with a very high vaccine coverage (>98% of the study population completed the primary vaccination series). In conclusion, infection with BA.1/BA.2 reduces the risk for breakthrough infections with BA.5 in a highly vaccinated population. This finding is critical to appraise the current epidemiological situation and the development of adapted vaccines.
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Under a sensitivity analysis assuming naturally acquired immunity decayed to 75% in 100 days, population immunity by 31 July 2022 was 36% (31-41%).
“Sensitivity analyses assuming exponentially decaying immunity from natural infection yielded population immunity of 48% (42–54%) or 36% (31–41%) if such naturally acquired immunity decayed to 85% in 365 days15 or to 75% in 100 days16,17, respectively”
From Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron BA.2 variant in a SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive population (2023) · cites this paper as [16]
The paper’s main text discusses protection against BA.5 after previous infection and mentions immune waning as a possible limitation. Searches for the 75%-in-100-days assumption and the 31 July population-immunity estimate found no sensitivity analysis or 36% (31–41%) estimate in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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- Authors
- Malato, J., Ribeiro, R. M., Leite, P. P., Casaca, P., Fernandes, E., Antunes, C., Fonseca, V. R., Gomes, M. C., & Graca, L.
- Affiliations
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes (PT)
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (US)
- Direcção-Geral da Saúde (PT)
- University of Lisbon (PT)
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Lisbon, Portugal
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2022-09-08
- Volume
- 387
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 953-954
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC9454644
- OpenAlex
- W4293843140
- Cited by
- 81
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 31
- FWCI
- 9.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (081_596653860, PTDC/MAT-APL/31602/2017)
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (ERA project No 952377 – iSTARS)
- National Institutes of Health (R01-AI116868)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, reinfection, breakthrough infection, COVID-19 risk
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Risk
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