Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Despite high vaccine coverage and effectiveness, the incidence of symptomatic infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been increasing in Israel. Whether the increasing incidence of infection is due to waning immunity after the receipt of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a 6-month longitudinal prospective study involving vaccinated health care workers who were tested monthly for the presence of anti-spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies. Linear mixed models were used to assess the dynamics of antibody levels and to determine predictors of antibody levels at 6 months. RESULTS: The study included 4868 participants, with 3808 being included in the linear mixed-model analyses. The level of IgG antibodies decreased at a consistent rate, whereas the neutralizing antibody level decreased rapidly for the first 3 months with a relatively slow decrease thereafter. Although IgG antibody levels were highly correlated with neutralizing antibody titers (Spearman's rank correlation between 0.68 and 0.75), the regression relationship between the IgG and neutralizing antibody levels depended on the time since receipt of the second vaccine dose. Six months after receipt of the second dose, neutralizing antibody titers were substantially lower among men than among women (ratio of means, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.75), lower among persons 65 years of age or older than among those 18 to less than 45 years of age (ratio of means, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.70), and lower among participants with immunosuppression than among those without immunosuppression (ratio of means, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Six months after receipt of the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, humoral response was substantially decreased, especially among men, among persons 65 years of age or older, and among persons with immunosuppression.
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- Findingown data
For neutralizing antibodies, the correlation between peak levels and rates of decline was strongly negative (−0.63; 95% CI, −0.70 to −0.55).
“However, for neutralizing antibody, the correlation was strongly negative (−0.63; 95% CI, −0.70 to −0.55).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
At 6 months after the second dose, men had lower neutralizing antibody titers than women, with a ratio of means of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.75).
“Six months after receipt of the second dose, neutralizing antibody titers were substantially lower among men than among women (ratio of means, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.75)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was an age-by-sex interaction: the reduction in titers for men aged 45 or older versus younger men was larger than the corresponding difference among women.
“An age-by-sex interaction was found; the difference by which the titers in men 45 years of age or older were lower than the titers in men younger than 45 years of age was larger than the difference between the corresponding female groups.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Obese participants (BMI ≥30) had 31% higher neutralizing antibody concentrations than nonobese participants.
“Obese participants (those with a BMI of ≥30) had a 31% increase in neutralizing antibody concentrations as compared with nonobese participants (Table 1).”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“Obese persons (BMI, ≥30) had a significantly higher neutralizing antibody titer during long-term follow-up than nonobese participants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
- Findingown data
At end of study, men aged 65 or older had 37% lower IgG and 46% lower neutralizing antibody concentrations than women of the same age group.
“and of 37% and 46%, respectively, among men 65 years of age or older as compared with women in the same age group (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
Peak antibody titers after the second dose were observed from day 4 through day 30.
“The highest titers after the receipt of the second vaccine dose (peak) were observed during days 4 through 30, so this was defined as the peak period.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After the second BNT162b2 dose, anti-spike IgG levels declined at a steady rate over the 6-month follow-up.
“The level of IgG antibodies decreased at a consistent rate”
- Also stated in: § SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Kinetics after Receipt of Second Vaccine Dose · plain
“A substantial reduction in the IgG level each month, which culminated in a decrease by a factor of 18.3 after 6 months, was observed.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“We observed a continuous decrease in anti-S IgG titers at a relative stable rate within 6 months.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Kinetics after Receipt of Second Vaccine Dose · plain
- Findingown data
By end of study, participants aged 65 or older had 38% lower IgG and 42% lower neutralizing antibody concentrations than those aged 18 to less than 45 years.
“At the end of study, the mixed-model analysis showed decreases in IgG and neutralizing antibody concentrations of 38% and 42%, respectively, among persons 65 years of age or older as compared with participants 18 to less than 45 years of age”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated geometric mean IgG titer at peak was 29.3 sample-to-cutoff ratio units (95% CI, 28.7 to 29.8).
“The expected geometric mean titer (GMT) for IgG for the peak period, expressed as a sample-to-cutoff ratio, was 29.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 28.7 to 29.8).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
At 6 months after the second dose, immunosuppressed participants had lower neutralizing antibody titers than non-immunosuppressed participants, with a ratio of means of 0.30 (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46).
“lower among participants with immunosuppression than among those without immunosuppression (ratio of means, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across age and sex subgroups, IgG levels declined at a constant rate over the 6-month period.
“The rate of IgG decay in all subgroups defined according to age and sex was constant throughout the 6-month period, whereas neutralization was substantially reduced up to period 3, followed by a slower decrease thereafter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The regression association between IgG and neutralizing antibody levels varied with time elapsed since the second vaccine dose.
“the regression relationship between the IgG and neutralizing antibody levels depended on the time since receipt of the second vaccine dose.”
- Also stated in: § Correlation between IgG and Neutralizing Antibody Levels · plain
“the regression relationship between the IgG and neutralizing antibody levels depended on the time since the second dose of vaccine”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“the regression relationship between IgG and neutralizing antibody was dependent on time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Correlation between IgG and Neutralizing Antibody Levels · plain
- Findingown data
Immunosuppressed participants were more likely than healthy participants to have a below-average neutralizing antibody titer.
“Participants with immunosuppression were more likely than healthy participants to have a below-average neutralizing antibody titer (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
At 6 months after the second dose, participants aged 65 years or older had lower neutralizing antibody titers than those aged 18 to less than 45 years, with a ratio of means of 0.58 (95% CI, 0.48 to 0.70).
“lower among persons 65 years of age or older than among those 18 to less than 45 years of age (ratio of means, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.70)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Overall, obese participants had a lower predicted risk of low neutralizing antibody titers than nonobese participants.
“Overall (regardless of sex and age group), obese participants were at lower risk for having lower neutralizing antibody titers than nonobese participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
By 6 months after the second dose, IgG levels had fallen by a factor of 18.3 from peak.
“A substantial reduction in the IgG level each month, which culminated in a decrease by a factor of 18.3 after 6 months, was observed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
IgG and neutralizing antibody titers showed a strong correlation across the 6 months, with Spearman coefficients between 0.68 and 0.75.
“Although IgG antibody levels were highly correlated with neutralizing antibody titers (Spearman’s rank correlation between 0.68 and 0.75)”
- Also stated in: § Correlation between IgG and Neutralizing Antibody Levels · boosted
“Although a strong correlation between IgG and neutralizing antibody titers was maintained throughout the 6 months after receipt of the second dose of vaccine (Spearman’s rank correlation between 0.68 and 0.75)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Correlation between IgG and Neutralizing Antibody Levels · boosted
- Premisecitation
In previously reported work, breakthrough infection among BNT162b2-vaccinated people was correlated with neutralizing antibody titers.
“We recently reported that breakthrough infection in BNT162b2-vaccinated persons was correlated with neutralizing antibody titers.6”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Bergwerk M, Gonen T, Lustig Y, et al. Covid-19 breakthrough infections in vaccinated health care workers. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2109072. PMC8362591 34320281 source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
The time-dependent relationship between IgG and neutralizing antibody levels is probably explained by their different kinetics.
“a finding that was probably due to the different kinetics between IgG and neutralizing antibody levels (Figure 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Neutralizing antibodies have been shown to correlate with protection against SARS-CoV-2.
“Neutralizing antibodies have been shown to correlate with protection.6,15”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [6] Bergwerk M, Gonen T, Lustig Y, et al. Covid-19 breakthrough infections in vaccinated health care workers. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2109072. PMC8362591 34320281 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [15] Khoury DS, Cromer D, Reynaldi A, et al. Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat Med 2021; 27: 1205- 1211. 34002089 source
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- Premisecitation
Among 197 vaccinated people, anti-spike antibody levels fell by half between the peak at 21 to 40 days and 84 days after the second BNT162b2 dose.
“A decrease in anti-spike (S) antibody levels by a factor of two was observed from the peak (at 21 to 40 days) to 84 days after receipt of the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine among 197 vaccinated persons.9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] Shrotri M, Navaratnam AMD, Nguyen V, et al. Spike-antibody waning after second dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Lancet 2021; 398: 385- 387. 34274038 PMC8285117 source
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- Premisecitation
Neutralizing antibodies can serve as a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.
“A correlation between neutralizing antibody titers and infectivity was recently reported6 and suggested that although the specific threshold titer that can predict breakthrough infection is still undefined, neutralizing antibodies may be used as a correlate of protection.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Bergwerk M, Gonen T, Lustig Y, et al. Covid-19 breakthrough infections in vaccinated health care workers. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2109072. PMC8362591 34320281 source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductreasoning
Because the cohort consisted mainly of healthy health care workers, it may not be representative of the general population.
“Our study was conducted in a cohort of health care workers, who were mostly healthy persons and therefore may not represent the general population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In people recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, several studies found only modest declines in IgG and neutralizing antibody levels at 8 to 10 months after infection.
“Several studies on the durability of humoral response in persons who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that both IgG and neutralizing antibody levels decrease only modestly at 8 to 10 months after the infection.22,23”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [22] Dan JM, Mateus J, Kato Y, et al. Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection. Science 2021; 371(6529): eabf4063- eabf4063. 33408181 PMC7919858 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [23] Vanshylla K, Di Cristanziano V, Kleipass F, et al. Kinetics and correlates of the neutralizing antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans. Cell Host Microbe 2021; 29(6): 917- 929.e4. 33984285 PMC8090990 source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
Participants with IgG and neutralizing antibody titers below the test cutoff were less likely to return for follow-up visits.
“Participants whose IgG and neutralizing antibody titers decreased to below the test cutoff level tended not to return for follow-up visits.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The different antibody kinetics between recovered and vaccinated people may explain the lower incidence of breakthrough infection among previously infected people than among vaccinated people.
“This striking difference in antibody kinetics between convalescent persons and vaccinated persons may be the reason for the substantially lower incidence of breakthrough infection among previously infected persons than among vaccinated persons.24,25”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [24] Anderson M, Stec M, Rewane A, Landay A, Cloherty G, Moy J. SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses in infection-naïve or previously infected individuals after 1 and 2 doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. JAMA Netw Open 2021; 4(8): e2119741- e2119741. 34357399 PMC8346938 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] Hall VJ, Foulkes S, Charlett A, et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN). Lancet 2021; 397: 1459- 1469. 33844963 PMC8040523 source
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 20
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 7
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataImmunosuppressed participants had 65% lower IgG and 70% lower neutralizing antibody concentrations than non-immunosuppressed participants.
“Participants with immunosuppression had decreases in the IgG and neutralizing antibody concentrations of 65% and 70%, respectively, as compared with participants without immunosuppression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAfter adjustment, higher initial neutralizing antibody levels were associated with faster decline up to about 70 days after the second dose; after that, decay was modest and similar across participants.
“After adjustment for other factors, participants with a higher initial level tended to have a decrease that was faster up to approximately 70 days after receipt of the second dose. Beyond that time, rates of decay were modest and did not vary much among participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor IgG, the correlation between individual peak levels and rates of decline was weak and positive (0.17; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.24), indicating decay rates were not strongly related to initial levels.
“For IgG levels, the correlation between individual participants’ peak levels and their slopes of the decrease was positive but weak (0.17; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.24); the rates of decay were not strongly related to initial levels.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataNeutralizing antibody titers fell sharply during the first roughly 3 months after the second dose and then declined more slowly.
“the neutralizing antibody level decreased rapidly for the first 3 months with a relatively slow decrease thereafter.”
- Also stated in: § SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Kinetics after Receipt of Second Vaccine Dose · plain
“Neutralizing antibody titers also decreased significantly, with a decrease by a factor of 3.9 from the peak to the end of study period 2, but the decrease from the start of period 3 onward was much slower, with an overall decrease by a factor of 1.2 during periods 3 through 6.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“The decrease in neutralizing antibody titers was brisk initially, in the period of up to 70 to 80 days, but slowed thereafter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Kinetics after Receipt of Second Vaccine Dose · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataNeutralizing antibody titers were significantly lower with older age, male sex, and immunosuppression, and significantly higher with obesity (BMI ≥30) in both peak and end-of-study periods.
“Significantly lower neutralizing antibody titers were associated with older age, male sex, and the presence of immunosuppression in both periods, and significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers were associated with a BMI of 30 or higher (obesity) as compared with a BMI of less than 30 in both study periods.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn both peak and 6-month periods, antibody levels were higher in women than men and declined with older age.
“We found that antibody levels in both periods were higher in women than in men and decreased with age, as has been previously shown for the first month after receipt of the second dose.7,16”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [7] Lustig Y, Sapir E, Regev-Yochay G, et al. BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine and correlates of humoral immune responses and dynamics: a prospective, single-centre, longitudinal cohort study in health-care workers. Lancet Respir Med 2021; 9: 999- 1009. 34224675 PMC8253545 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [16] Bates TA, Leier HC, Lyski ZL, et al. Age-dependent neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 and P.1 variant by vaccine immune serum samples. JAMA 2021 July 21 (Epub ahead of print). 34287620 PMC8295896 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor healthy women aged 18 to <45, 45 to <65, and ≥65 years, the predicted probability of a neutralizing antibody titer below 256 at 175 days was 0.68, 0.79, and 0.81; for men, it was 0.75, 0.89, and 0.92.
“Among healthy women and men in the three age groups (18 to <45 years, 45 to <65 years, and ≥65 years of age), the probability of having a neutralizing antibody titer of less than 256 at 175 days after receipt of the second dose were as follows: 0.68, 0.79, and 0.81, respectively, among women and 0.75, 0.89, and 0.92, respectively, among men.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAt both peak and end of study, IgG titers were significantly lower with older age, male sex, two or more specified coexisting conditions, autoimmune disease, and immunosuppression.
“In the peak and end-of-study periods, significantly lower IgG titers were associated with older age, male sex, the presence of two or more coexisting conditions (i.e., hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, or heart, lung, kidney, or liver disease), the presence of autoimmune disease, and the presence of immunosuppression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataCompared with participants aged 18 to less than 45 years, those aged 65 or older had lower peak IgG and neutralizing antibody levels and a larger decline in neutralizing antibody titers through about 3 months.
“Participants 65 years of age or older had lower IgG and neutralizing antibody levels than persons 18 to less than 45 years of age during the peak period and also had a greater decrease, up to approximately 3 months (end of period 2), in the neutralizing antibody titer”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataDuring peak, participants with two or more specified coexisting conditions had lower IgG and neutralizing antibody titers than those with none, but at end of study neutralizing antibody differences were not significant.
“Our results show that although the IgG and neutralizing antibody titers were significantly lower in participants with two or more specific coexisting conditions than in those with no specific coexisting condition during the peak period, no significant differences in neutralizing antibody titers were observed at the end of study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor healthy women aged 18 to <45, 45 to <65, and ≥65 years, the predicted probability of a neutralizing antibody titer below 16 at 175 days was 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06; for men, it was 0.04, 0.11, and 0.15.
“The probability of having a neutralizing antibody titer of less than 16 in these three age groups (18 to <45 years, 45 to <65 years, and ≥65 years of age) were as follows: 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively, among women and 0.04, 0.11, and 0.15, respectively, among men.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationParticipants with immunosuppression had consistently lower antibody responses, with neutralizing antibody titers five times lower than those without immunosuppression.
“Similar to the findings in other reports,17-19 a significantly lower antibody response was found consistently through the observation period among participants with immunosuppression, who had neutralizing antibody titers that were lower by a factor of 5 than those among participants without immunosuppression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [17] Boyarsky BJ, Werbel WA, Avery RK, et al. Antibody response to 2-dose SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine series in solid organ transplant recipients. JAMA 2021; 325: 2204- 2206. 33950155 PMC8100911 source
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- cites [18] Marion O, Del Bello A, Abravanel F, et al. Safety and immunogenicity of anti-SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA vaccines in recipients of solid organ transplants. Ann Intern Med 2021; 174: 1336- 1338. 34029487 PMC8252830 source
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- cites [19] Goshen-Lago T, Waldhorn I, Holland R, et al. Serologic status and toxic effects of the SARS-CoV-2 BNT162b2 vaccine in patients undergoing treatment for cancer. JAMA Oncol 2021 July 8 (Epub ahead of print). 34236381 PMC8267843 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataNeutralizing antibody titers fell 3.9-fold from peak to the end of period 2, then declined only 1.2-fold across periods 3 through 6.
“Neutralizing antibody titers also decreased significantly, with a decrease by a factor of 3.9 from the peak to the end of study period 2, but the decrease from the start of period 3 onward was much slower, with an overall decrease by a factor of 1.2 during periods 3 through 6.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe geometric mean 50% neutralization titer was 557.1 (95% CI, 510.8 to 607.7) at peak and 119.4 (95% CI, 112.0 to 127.3) in period 6.
“The GMT of neutralizing antibody, expressed as a 50% neutralization titer, was 557.1 (95% CI, 510.8 to 607.7) in the peak period and decreased to 119.4 (95% CI, 112.0 to 127.3) in period 6.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAutoimmune disease was associated with significantly lower IgG titers but not neutralizing antibody titers at both peak and end of study.
“In addition, participants with autoimmune disease had a significantly lower IgG titer but not neutralizing antibody titer during both the peak and end-of-study periods than did those without autoimmune disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe BNT162b2 vaccine has shown 94 to 95% efficacy and real-world effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 from 7 days after the second dose.
“A randomized, controlled trial and real-world studies have shown vaccine efficacy of 94 to 95% with the BNT162b2 vaccine (Pfizer–BioNTech) and vaccine effectiveness in preventing symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) 7 days or more after receipt of the second dose of vaccine.1,3-5”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [1] Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, et al. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383: 2603- 2615. 33301246 PMC7745181 source
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- cites [3] Dagan N, Barda N, Kepten E, et al. BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in a nationwide mass vaccination setting. N Engl J Med 2021; 384: 1412- 1423. 33626250 PMC7944975 source
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- cites [4] Haas EJ, Angulo FJ, McLaughlin JM, et al. Impact and effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths following a nationwide vaccination campaign in Israel: an observational study using national surveillance data. Lancet 2021; 397: 1819- 1829. 33964222 PMC8099315 source
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- cites [5] Chodick G, Tene L, Rotem RS, et al. The effectiveness of the two-dose BNT162b2 vaccine: analysis of real-world data. Clin Infect Dis 2021 May 17 (Epub ahead of print). 33999127 PMC8240867 source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFor vaccines such as measles, mumps, and rubella, published studies have shown neutralizing antibody levels decline by about 5 to 10% per year.
“Published work about many vaccines, such as those against measles, mumps, and rubella, has shown a small decrease each year of 5 to 10% in the neutralizing antibody levels.13,14”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [13] Davidkin I, Jokinen S, Broman M, Leinikki P, Peltola H. Persistence of measles, mumps, and rubella antibodies in an MMR-vaccinated cohort: a 20-year follow-up. J Infect Dis 2008; 197: 950- 956. 18419470 source
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- cites [14] Seagle EE, Bednarczyk RA, Hill T, et al. Measles, mumps, and rubella antibody patterns of persistence and rate of decline following the second dose of the MMR vaccine. Vaccine 2018; 36: 818- 826. 29317117 source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationObesity is associated with severe Covid-19.
“Obesity is associated with severe Covid-19,20”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] Huang Y, Lu Y, Huang Y-M, et al. Obesity in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Metabolism 2020; 113: 154378- 154378. 33002478 PMC7521361 source
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May combine two claims.
PremisecitationOlder age, male sex, and immunosuppression have been associated with lower antibody levels after vaccination.
“Lower antibody levels have been shown to develop in older persons, men, and persons with an immunosuppressed condition, which suggests that antibody titers in these populations may decrease earlier than in other populations.7,8”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [7] Lustig Y, Sapir E, Regev-Yochay G, et al. BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine and correlates of humoral immune responses and dynamics: a prospective, single-centre, longitudinal cohort study in health-care workers. Lancet Respir Med 2021; 9: 999- 1009. 34224675 PMC8253545 source
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- cites [8] Terpos E, Trougakos IP, Apostolakou F, et al. Age-dependent and gender-dependent antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 in health workers and octogenarians after vaccination with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. Am J Hematol 2021; 96(7): E257- E259. 33837984 PMC8250071 source
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May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataHumoral immunity declined substantially by 6 months after the second BNT162b2 dose, with greater declines in men, people aged 65 or older, and immunosuppressed individuals.
“Six months after receipt of the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, humoral response was substantially decreased, especially among men, among persons 65 years of age or older, and among persons with immunosuppression.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“we found a significant waning of humoral responses within 6 months after receipt of the second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in a large cohort of 4868 participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningTo improve representativeness, neutralizing antibody testing was done in a subgroup enriched for older people and those with coexisting conditions, while IgG testing covered the entire study population.
“To overcome this limitation, although IgG tests were performed in the entire study population, neutralizing antibody tests were performed in a subgroup that included higher proportions of older persons or of persons with coexisting conditions in order to better represent the general population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationA recent study found a positive association between SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies and BMI.
“A recent study showed that SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies are positively associated with BMI.21”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] Soffer S, Glicksberg BS, Zimlichman E, et al. The association between obesity and peak antibody titer response in COVID-19 infection. Obesity (Silver Spring) 2021; 29: 1547- 1553. 33945220 PMC8242567 source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAll study participants provided written informed consent.
“Written informed consent was obtained from all study participants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study protocol received approval from the institutional review board at Sheba Medical Center.
“The study protocol was approved by the institutional review board at Sheba Medical Center.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationTaken together, evidence from this study and others indicates that previously infected people have better long-term humoral response and vaccine effectiveness than recipients of two vaccine doses.
“Overall, the accumulating evidence from our study and others22-25 shows that long-term humoral response and vaccine effectiveness in previously infected persons were superior to that in recipients of two doses of vaccine.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [22] Dan JM, Mateus J, Kato Y, et al. Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection. Science 2021; 371(6529): eabf4063- eabf4063. 33408181 PMC7919858 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [23] Vanshylla K, Di Cristanziano V, Kleipass F, et al. Kinetics and correlates of the neutralizing antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans. Cell Host Microbe 2021; 29(6): 917- 929.e4. 33984285 PMC8090990 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [24] Anderson M, Stec M, Rewane A, Landay A, Cloherty G, Moy J. SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses in infection-naïve or previously infected individuals after 1 and 2 doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. JAMA Netw Open 2021; 4(8): e2119741- e2119741. 34357399 PMC8346938 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] Hall VJ, Foulkes S, Charlett A, et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN). Lancet 2021; 397: 1459- 1469. 33844963 PMC8040523 source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningThe linear mixed model used in the analysis accounted for missing outcomes.
“These and other missing outcomes were accommodated through the linear mixed model that was used in the analysis (described below).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
Missing IgG and neutralizing antibody data were missing at random.
“Missing data regarding IgG or neutralizing antibody levels were accommodated within these models under the “missing at random” assumption.”
The paper relies on this without support.
No threshold neutralizing antibody titer for predicting breakthrough infection has been established.
“However, a threshold titer that can predict breakthrough infection has not been defined.”
“although the specific threshold titer that can predict breakthrough infection is still undefined”
The paper relies on this without support.
Evidence on how long vaccine protection lasts is limited.
“As the rollout of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)1,2 is expanding worldwide, data on the durability of protection are limited.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The full duration of immunity after vaccination is not yet known.
“Real-world effectiveness and immunogenicity data describing the antibody kinetics over time after vaccination are beginning to appear, but a complete picture of the duration of immunity is not yet available.”
The paper relies on this without support.
More severe Covid-19 is associated with a higher humoral immune response.
“Obesity is associated with severe Covid-19,20 and disease severity is associated with a higher Covid-19 humoral immune response.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The BNT162b2 vaccine produces high IgG and neutralizing antibody responses 7 to 14 days after the second dose.
“The BNT162b2 vaccine elicits high IgG and neutralizing antibody responses 7 to 14 days after receipt of the second dose.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Neutralizing antibody assays are complex and time-consuming.
“Yet, neutralizing assays are complex and time-consuming.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The decrease in protection against Delta has been mainly attributed to a decay of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies over time rather than an intrinsic capacity of the Delta variant to escape immunity.
“The decrease in protection against Delta has been mainly attributed to a decay of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies over time rather than an intrinsic capacity of the Delta variant to escape immunity [27,28].”
From Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic and severe COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged 50 years and over in France (2023) · cites this paper as [27]
The Results section reports that neutralizing antibody titers declined over six months after BNT162b2 vaccination, and the Discussion notes that neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection. The paper does not establish that waning antibodies, rather than Delta’s capacity to escape immunity, were the main cause of reduced protection against Delta. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNeutralising antibody levels decline substantially 6 months after vaccination.
“However, neutralising antibody levels were found to decline substantially 6 months after vaccination [1].”
The protective effect of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infection peaks after the second dose and then quickly declines, with the humoral immune response sharply decreasing.
“Studies have shown that the protective effect of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infection peaks after the second dose and then quickly declines, with the humoral immune response sharply decreasing.388–391”
From Advances in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine development (2022) · cites this paper as [389]
Neutralizing antibody responses raised by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines decay with a half-life of 69-173 days.
“Several reports have measured the decay of neutralizing antibody responses raised by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines with a half-life of 69-173 days (Doria-Rose et al., 2021; Levin et al., 2021).”
From mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (2022) · cites this paper as Levin et al., 2021
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References 25 · Cited by 1,703
- Authors
- Levin, E. G., Lustig, Y., Cohen, C., Fluss, R., Indenbaum, V., Amit, S., Doolman, R., Asraf, K., Mendelson, E., Ziv, A., Rubin, C., Freedman, L., Kreiss, Y., & Regev-Yochay, G.
- Affiliations
- Sheba Medical Center (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Regev-Yochay, Gili
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2021-12-09
- Volume
- 385
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- e84-e84
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC8522797
- OpenAlex
- W3203611764
- Cited by
- 1,703
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 75 · 2025: 111 · 2024: 200 · 2023: 421 · 2022: 787 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 120.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › Immune responses and vaccinations
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- BNT162b2, COVID-19 vaccines, waning immunity, humoral immune response, neutralizing antibodies, anti-spike IgG, antibody decline, sex differences, age differences, immunosuppression, healthcare workers, SARS-CoV-2 reinfection
- MeSH terms
- Immunogenicity, Vaccine, COVID-19, Vaccine Efficacy, BNT162 Vaccine, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Antibodies, Viral, Female, Health Personnel, Humans, Immunoglobulin G, Immunization, Secondary, Israel, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, Time Factors, Cohort Studies, Body Mass Index, Linear Models, Immunocompromised Host, Antibodies, Neutralizing
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