Cited by 276Fire effects on ecosystemsEcosystem dynamics and resilienceTheoretical and Computational Physics

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Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance

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Moritz, Max A., Morais, Marco E., Summerell, Lora A., Carlson, J. M., Doyle, John·2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.0508985102PMC PMC1312407

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Abstract

Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex systems theory. Both real and modeled fire-prone landscapes exhibit roughly power law statistics in fire size versus frequency. Here, we examine historical fire catalogs and a detailed fire simulation model; both are in agreement with a highly optimized tolerance model. Highly optimized tolerance suggests robustness tradeoffs underlie resilience in different fire-prone ecosystems. Understanding these mechanisms may provide new insights into the structure of ecological systems and be key in evaluating fire management strategies and sensitivities to climate change.

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Authors: Moritz, M. A., Morais, M. E., Summerell, L. A., Carlson, J. M., & Doyle, J.
Affiliations: California Institute of Technology (US)
ORCID: Moritz, Max A.
Carlson, J. M.
Doyle, John
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2005-12-06
Volume: 102
Issue: 50
Pages: 17912-17917
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0508985102
PMC: PMC1312407
OpenAlex: W2052350246
Cited by: 276
References: 65
Citations by year: 2026: 20 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 13
FWCI: 4.13
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
europepmc.org
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Condensed Matter Physics › Theoretical and Computational Physics
Keywords: forest fires, fire regimes, fire management, ecosystem resilience, power-law statistics, fire simulation model, complex systems, climate change sensitivity, historical fire records
MeSH terms: Computer Simulation, Fires, Models, Theoretical, Ecosystem

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