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Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude
Open accessAbstract
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.
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“These predictions have been verified in a variety of tropical reptiles, amphibians, and invertebrates (4–8).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [5]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Deutsch et al. (5) predicted that, for insects living at mid-to-high latitudes, rates of increase should grow as climate warms, while in the tropics insects should decline by as much as 20%.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [5]
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“Fourth, our analyses are in keeping with predictions of Deutsch et al. (5) that tropical insects should be especially vulnerable to climate warming, adding to field and laboratory studies over the past several years that have consistently supported the predicted sensitivity (8, 48–53).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [5]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Huey, R. B., Sheldon, K. S., Ghalambor, C. K., Haak, D. C., & Martin, P. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2008-05-06
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 18
- Pages
- 6668-6672
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2373333
- OpenAlex
- W1992244678
- Cited by
- 3,840
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 249 · 2025: 274 · 2024: 260 · 2023: 284 · 2022: 270 · 2021: 284 · 2020: 320 · 2019: 259 · 2018: 228 · 2017: 203 · 2016: 204 · 2015: 187 · 2014: 168 · 2013: 188 · 2012: 146
- FWCI
- 89.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- global warming, heat tolerance, insect fitness, latitudinal gradient, tropical insects, optimal temperature, climate change projections, extinction risk, climate change impacts
- MeSH terms
- Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Insecta, Temperature, Tropical Climate, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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