Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses – implications for REDD
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Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD—reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.
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Forests are a major storage of carbon, so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production.
“Forests are a major storage of carbon [22], so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production [23].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [22]
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Hiltner, U., Huth, A., & Fischer, R. (2022) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-19-1891-2022 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Lu, S., Zhou, Y., Sun, H., Chen, N., & Guan, X. (2021) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105265 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Zhang, Q., Xu, L., Zhang, M., Wang, Z., Gu, Z., Wu, Y., Shi, Y., & Lu, Z. (2020) · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information · doi:10.3390/ijgi9010048 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Sobirin, M., & Khasanah, K. (2023) · Cogent Arts and Humanities · doi:10.1080/23311983.2023.2193023 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Campbell, J. E., Fox, J. F., & Acton, P. M. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045701 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain
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Self-citationBiofuels and sustainable development goals
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The role of agricultural expansion, land cover and land-use change in contributing to climate change
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Mechanisms for Avoiding Deforestation and Forest Degradation
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Self-citationHiltner, U., Huth, A., & Fischer, R. (2020) · doi:10.5194/bg-2020-264 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Recarbonization of the Humid Tropics
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The future of food supply in a constraining environment
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Potential Carbon Sinks in Tropical Forests under the REDD+ Mechanism
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The Biogeochemical Impacts of Forests and the Implications for Climate Change Mitigation
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Increased Agricultural Trade and its Impacts on Food System, Land-use and Greenhouse Gas EmissionsPreprint
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Gumpenberger, M., Vohland, K., Heyder, U., Poulter, B., Macey, K., Rammig, A., Popp, A., & Cramer, W.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Museum für Naturkunde (DE)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2010-01
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 014013
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2007686879
- Cited by
- 51
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 7.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (512464)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Office of Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
- Keywords
- REDD+, climate change impacts on forests, deforestation, land use change, climate change projections, SRES A2 scenario, CO2 fertilization, carbon uptake, tropical Latin America, forest protection
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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