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A systematic comparison of deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome

Open access
Hänggli, Aline, Levy, Samuel A, Armenteras, Dolors, Bovolo, C Isabella, Brandão, Joyce, Rueda, Ximena, Garrett, Rachael D·2023·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acd408
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Abstract

The Amazon biome, spanning nine countries, has one of the highest rates of deforestation worldwide. This deforestation contributes to biodiversity loss, climate change, the spread of infectious diseases, and damage to rural and indigenous livelihoods. Hundreds of articles have been published on the topic of deforestation across Amazonia, yet there has been no recent synthesis of deforestation drivers and deforestation-control policy effectiveness in the region. Here we undertook the first systematic review of papers published between 2000 and 2021 that have causally linked proximate and underlying drivers and policies to deforestation outcomes in Amazonia. In the 155 articles that met our inclusion criteria, we find that causal research is concentrated in Brazil, and to a lesser degree Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia. There has been little study of the Guianas, Venezuela or Colombia. Large- and small-scale agriculture linked to improved market access and high agricultural prices are frequently researched underlying drivers of deforestation across the heavily researched regions. In the Guianas research focuses on mining with little focus on underlying causes. Research on infrastructure expansion, mining, and oil extraction and on technological, sociocultural, and institutional factors remains sparse. Many public and private policies have been found to be effective in controlling deforestation across the biome, with protected areas and public policies standing out as particularly successful in slowing deforestation vis-à-vis supply chain approaches. Frontier age, land tenure, and policy interactions are key moderating factors affecting the outcomes of different underlying causes and policies. Our findings indicate a greater need for research on (i) additional deforestation drivers beyond agriculture and economic factors, (ii) the complex interactions between different drivers and deforestation control policies, (iii) causes underlying deforestation in low or new deforestation areas, and (iv) the dynamics between Amazonian subregions and countries. Understanding the extent and diversity of deforestation drivers and effectiveness of existing deforestation mitigation policies across Amazonia is a necessary first step toward designing policies to further reduce deforestation in the biome.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This systematic review synthesizes causal research published 2000–2021 on deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome, drawing on 155 articles (abstract; methods reports 150) and 426 cases. It finds research concentrated in Brazil and agriculture-dominated, with protected areas among the most effective policies and major gaps in mining, infrastructure, and low-deforestation regions.

Key findings

  • Causal research is concentrated in Brazil, and to a lesser degree Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia; there is little study of the Guianas, Venezuela, or Colombia. Of the cases, 65% focused on deforestation in Brazil, 31% of which analyzed agriculture as a proximate cause.
  • Agricultural expansion was the main proximate cause in all countries except the Guianas; large-scale agriculture (cattle ranching and commodity crops) had a larger impact than other agriculture, and pasture expansion was primary in the Bolivian, Ecuadorian, Colombian, and Brazilian Amazon. Small-scale gold mining was the main increasing cause in Guyana and Suriname and had intermediate impact in French Guiana and Peruvian Amazonia.
  • Many policies were effective: protected areas stood out, PPCDAm blacklisting reduced forest loss by up to 60%, the Soy Moratorium reduced soy-related deforestation by 35–55%, and the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program lowered mining deforestation in Guyana by 35% between 2010 and 2015. Twelve REDD+ projects across the Brazilian Amazon did not provide additionality in 2008–2018, and G4/TAC cattle agreements had an overall zero effect due to leakage.
  • Research gaps include sparse work on infrastructure, mining, oil extraction, and technological, sociocultural, and institutional factors; economic factors were the most studied underlying drivers (75 cases), followed by technological (37), institutional (25), environmental (17), demographic (13), and cultural (9). There was no literature on large-scale gold mining despite its presence in the Guiana Shield.

Methods

  • Systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published 2000–2021, searched in Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO in English, Spanish, and French; the March 2021 search identified 7,401 articles from Scopus and Web of Science combined, of which 5,229 were unique.
  • Inclusion required study area within the Amazon biome, analysis at national level or below, and rigorous causal analysis of at least one driver or policy on actual past deforestation; policy analyses additionally required a counterfactual method such as matching, difference-in-difference, or fixed effects.
  • Evidence was coded using a framework based on Geist and Lambin’s proximate and underlying drivers and policy categories; individual cases referred to specific study areas, yielding 426 cases from 150 articles (methods) or 155 articles (abstract), and findings were qualitatively compared between local case studies and Amazon-wide studies.

Limitations

  • The paper states it did not include grey literature or Google Scholar, did not conduct a separate Portuguese search, and identified no French articles meeting selection criteria; it also notes the qualitative approach does not consider effect sizes.
  • The paper states that all titles and abstracts were screened by the first author, and after initial independent coding by three authors, only the first author coded the articles.
  • The text makes evident an inconsistency in the number of included articles: the abstract reports 155 articles meeting inclusion criteria, while the methods section reports 150 articles identified in the literature search.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1088/1748-9326/acd408

Cites

165 of 165 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

24 of 46 cited sources checked · 5 supported · 2 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingcitation

    One Brazilian Amazon study did not find any effect of land titling on deforestation.

    “While one Brazilian 485 Amazon study did not find any effect [133]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [133] Müller, 2012, Proximate causes of deforestation in the Bolivian lowlands: an analysis of spatial dynamics, Reg. Environ. Change source

      The Study area and historical land use section identifies the study area as the Bolivian lowlands. The Variables on land policies and Dynamics of land use change sections discuss protected areas, forest concessions, and indigenous territories, but do not report whether land titling affected deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Searches for land titling, tenure, and the claimed Brazilian finding found no passage addressing it; page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingcitation

    Two more recent studies found that indigenous areas faced more deforestation pressure and thus provided greater additionality compared to remotely located protected areas and less stringent sustainable use areas.

    “But two more recent studies found that indigenous areas faced more deforestation pressure and thus 476 provided greater additionality compared to remotely located protected areas and less stringent 477 sustainable use areas [130,131].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [130] Jusys, 2018, Changing patterns in deforestation avoidance by different protection types in the Brazilian Amazon, PLoS One source

      The Introduction says strictly protected areas are generally in lower-pressure locations, and the Results (Avoided deforestation) report that indigenous lands avoided the most deforestation in 2001–2008. But the Results also report that strictly protected areas outperformed indigenous lands in 2009–2014. The paper therefore does not support an unqualified claim that indigenous areas provided greater additionality than both other protection types, or establish higher pressure on indigenous lands as the reason. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [131] Kere, 2017, Addressing contextual and location biases in the assessment of protected areas effectiveness on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia, Ecol. Econ. source

      Section 3.2.1 reports more avoided deforestation in indigenous lands than in sustainable-use and integral-protection areas. The Concluding remarks link high deforestation pressure to *recent* protected areas, not specifically to indigenous lands; Section 3.2.2 says that analysis excludes indigenous lands. The paper therefore does not establish the claimed pressure-based explanation for indigenous areas’ greater additionality over remote protected areas. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingcitation

    Studies in Brazil and Peru found reductions in deforestation after receiving property titles.

    “studies in Brazil [134] and Peru [135] found reductions in 486 deforestation after receiving property titles.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [134] BenYishay, 2017, Indigenous land rights and deforestation: evidence from the Brazilian Amazon, J. Environ. Econ. Manage. source
    • cites [135] Baragwanath, 2020, Collective property rights reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. source
  • Findingcitation

    Forest loss was concentrated along the border between Guyana and Suriname.

    “as forest loss was concentrated along the 501 border [136].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [136] Blackman, 2017, Titling indigenous communities protects forests in the Peruvian Amazon, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA source

      The Significance section discusses forest clearing in the Peruvian Amazon, not forest loss along the Guyana–Suriname border. A search for Guyana, Suriname, and forest loss concentrated along a border found no passage in our copy addressing that claim; the border mentioned in the Empirical Approach concerns a dispute with Ecuador and the location of titling campaigns. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingcitation

    In Brazil, twelve REDD+ projects across the entire Brazilian Amazon focused on agriculturally-driven deforestation did not provide additionality in 2008-2018.

    “In Brazil, twelve REDD+ projects across the entire Brazilian Amazon focused on 502 agriculturally-driven deforestation did not provide additionality (outcomes beyond business as usual) 503 in 2008-2018 [137].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [137] Roopsind, 2019, Evidence that a national REDD+ program reduces tree cover loss and carbon emissions in a high forest cover, low deforestation country, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims. 41
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 3
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 21

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingcitation

    As protected areas technically do not allow for any deforestation and received more regulatory attention, they were deemed most effective, followed by indigenous areas and sustainable use areas.

    “they were deemed most effective, followed by indigenous areas and sustainable use areas [126-129].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [126] Nepstad, 2006, Inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire by parks and indigenous lands, Conserv. Biol. source
    • cites [127] Nolte, 2013, Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. source

      The Results report that strictly protected areas avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas across levels of deforestation pressure. They do not support the claimed overall ranking: indigenous lands were at least as effective as strictly protected areas under moderate pressure and more effective than any other type under high pressure. The paper also describes strict protection as discouraging resource use, rather than allowing no deforestation at all. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [128] Pfaff, 2015, Protected area types, strategies and impacts in Brazil’s Amazon: public protected area strategies do not yield a consistent ranking of protected area types by impact, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B source

      The Introduction says Integral protection officially prohibits deforestation, but it does not establish the claimed effectiveness ranking. The paper’s summary states that impacts vary by region and time and that PA strategies do not yield a consistent ranking of types by impact. Its finding that Integral areas outperform sustainable-use areas in one high-pressure setting does not establish the asserted overall order. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [129] Soares-Filho, 2010, Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. source

      The Results and Discussion explicitly identify indigenous lands as the most effective category at inhibiting deforestation, contrary to the claimed ranking of strictly protected areas first. The paper does not support the stated order. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Gold mining has been increasing since 1984, especially in Madre do Dios, Peru.

    “Gold mining has been increasing since 1984, especially in Madre do Dios, Peru [122-124].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [122] Futemma, 2003, Land reform and land-use changes in the lower Amazon: implications for agricultural intensification, Hum. Ecol. source
    • cites [123] Aguirre, 2021, Dinámica de la pérdida de bosques en el sureste de la Amazonia peruana: un estudio de caso en Madre de Dios, Ecosistemas source

      The passage labelled Financiación (page unavailable) reports increases in gold-mining extraction areas in the Madre de Dios study area across periods from 1999 to 2018. It does not establish that the increase began in 1984; the Discusión (page unavailable) instead describes a mining upturn beginning in 2004–2009. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [124] Asner, 2013, Elevated rates of gold mining in the Amazon revealed through high-resolution monitoring, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA source

      The paper reports rapid expansion of gold mining in Madre de Dios, Peru, and a 400% increase in its geographic extent from 1999 to 2012 (opening section; page not supplied). It does not establish an increase dating from 1984; its discussion also describes mining mapped from 1999 to 2012. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation

    Fire is not necessarily referred to as a proximate cause of deforestation.

    “Similarly, fire is not necessarily referred to as a proximate cause of deforestation [50].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [50] Tyukavina, 2017, Types and rates of forest disturbance in Brazilian Legal Amazon, 2000–2013, Sci. Adv. source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Military operations against mining in French Guiana and Madre de Dios (e.g. Operation Mercury) were effective but have displaced the cause to other areas.

    “So far, military 646 operations against mining in French Guiana and Madre de Dios (e.g. Operation Mercury) were effective 647 but have displaced the cause to other areas [55,162].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [55] Dezécache, 2017, Gold-rush in a forested El Dorado: deforestation leakages and the need for regional cooperation, Environ. Res. Lett. source

      Section 3.3 (page not provided) reports that military repression was associated with less gold-mining deforestation in French Guiana and more in Suriname, supporting the effectiveness-and-displacement claim for that case. The paper does not address military operations in Madre de Dios or Operation Mercury, so it does not support that part of the sentence. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [162] Giljum, 2022, A pantropical assessment of deforestation caused by industrial mining, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. source

      The paper’s Results assess deforestation associated with industrial mining, and its Discussion addresses environmental policy, but neither reports the effectiveness of military operations in French Guiana or Madre de Dios or says they displaced mining elsewhere. Searches for Operation Mercury, both locations, military enforcement, and displacement found no passage addressing the claim. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    As a global review by Börner et al. showed, policy analyses of forest conservation are generally lacking in the Guianas and Venezuela while Brazil has the highest number of studies worldwide.

    “As a global review by Börner et al. [20] showed, policy analyses of forest conservation are generally 680 lacking in the Guianas and Venezuela while Brazil has the highest number of studies worldwide.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Börner, 2020, The effectiveness of forest conservation policies and programs, Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ. source

      The evidence gap map’s Summary of Key Findings says Brazil is well represented, supporting that part of the claim. It does not identify a lack of studies in the Guianas or Venezuela, and its Overview (all tiers aggregated; page unavailable) places India first rather than Brazil for number of studies. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    As Alvarez-Berríos and Aide confirm, deforestation due to gold mining is also connected to global markets and rising gold prices.

    “As Alvarez-Berríos and Aide [25] confirm, 648 deforestation due to gold mining is also connected global markets and rising gold prices.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [25] Alvarez-Berríos, 2015, Global demand for gold is another threat for tropical forests, Environ. Res. Lett. source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The Norway-Guyana REDD+ program resulted in lowered deforestation due to mining in Guyana by 35% between 2010 and 2015, counteracting the influence of rising gold prices.

    “The Norway-Guyana REDD+ program resulted in lowered deforestation due to mining in Guyana 498 by 35% between 2010 and 2015, counteracting the influence of rising gold prices [136].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [136] Blackman, 2017, Titling indigenous communities protects forests in the Peruvian Amazon, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA source

      The paper’s opening section reports effects of indigenous land titling on forest clearing and disturbance in the Peruvian Amazon, not effects of the Norway–Guyana REDD+ program. Searches for Guyana, mining, the 35% figure, and gold prices found no passage addressing the claimed 2010–2015 result. (LLM, conf=0.77)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The meta-analysis by Börner et al., which also considered effect sizes, found that indigenous territories avoid more deforestation than protected areas or any other policy studied, on average.

    “The meta-analysis by Börner et al. [20], which also considered effect sizes, found that indigenous 684 territories avoid more deforestation than protected areas or any other policy studied, on average.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Börner, 2020, The effectiveness of forest conservation policies and programs, Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ. source

      The indexed copy’s Results section describes an evidence gap map of 50 experimental and quasi-experimental cases, but does not report the claimed comparison of average avoided deforestation. Searches for indigenous territories, effect sizes, and comparisons with protected areas found no passage establishing that indigenous territories outperformed every other policy. The indexed text is headed “Effectiveness of Forest Conservation Interventions: An Evidence Gap Map,” rather than the cited paper’s title, so it cannot settle what the cited paper says. (LLM, conf=0.77)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Remote areas tend to have high degrees of endemism: for example there are over 40% endemic plant species in the Kaieteur Falls National Park in Guyana.

    “In addition, remote areas tend to have high degrees of 676 endemism: for example there are over 40% endemic plant species in the Kaieteur Falls National Park 677 in Guyana [165].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [165] Ter Steege, 2013, Hyperdominance in the Amazonian tree flora, Science source

      The ‘A Rank-Abundance Distribution for Amazonian Trees’ section says that thousands of rare tree species may be Amazonian endemics, but it does not connect endemism to remoteness. Searches for Kaieteur Falls, the claimed 40% figure, and remote-area endemism found no passage addressing those claims. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Deforestation rates were still rising during the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program and increased rapidly once it had ended.

    “Yet, 499 deforestation rates were still rising during the program and increased rapidly once it had ended.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [136] Blackman, 2017, Titling indigenous communities protects forests in the Peruvian Amazon, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA source

      The paper’s Significance section (page unavailable) examines land titling and forest-cover change in the Peruvian Amazon, not the Norway–Guyana REDD+ program. Searches for Norway–Guyana and for deforestation trends during and after a program found no passage addressing the claimed timeline. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Conservation areas appear to have effectively stopped commodity agriculture expansion, but pasture and small-scale agriculture was found within such areas.

    “Conservation areas appear to have effectively stopped 483 commodity agriculture expansion, but pasture and small-scale agriculture was found within such areas.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The additionality of conservation areas varied depending on the deforestation risk, which in turn was a function of the location of the area.

    “The additionality of conservation areas also varied depending on the deforestation risk, which in turn 481 was a function of the location of the area.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Once secured, land tenure has been shown to have decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    “Once secured, land tenure has been shown to have decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Our review methodology identified 150 articles in the literature search, from which we identified 426 cases.

    “Our review methodology identified 150 articles in the literature search.From these articles we 273 identified 426 cases”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Research on sociocultural, behavioral, institutional, and technological factors as underlying causes is scarce, and concentrated in either Brazil or certain research hotspots.

    “Research on sociocultural, behavioral, institutional, and technological factors as underlying causes 742 is scarce, and concentrated in either Brazil or certain research hotspots.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Coca research is largely absent in Amazonia but is more prevalent outside of the Amazon where coca production is also more common.

    “Coca research is largely absent in 575 Amazonia but is more prevalent outside of the Amazon where coca production is also more common.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Technological aspects were covered in 37 cases, mainly in Ecuador (8 cases) and Brazil (27 cases).

    “Technological aspects were covered in 37 cases, mainly in the Ecuador (8 cases) and Brazil (27 582 cases).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Only one study examined the broader political context as a driver of deforestation, finding that corruption and campaign funding in municipal re-election cycles increased deforestation in Brazil.

    “Only one study examined the broader political context as a driver of deforestation.It found 417 that corruption and campaign funding in municipal re-election cycles increased deforestation in Brazil418[117].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [117] Marchand, 2012, The relationship between technical efficiency in agriculture and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Ecol. Econ. source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    A study on the Forest Stewardship Council certification found it was not effective at reducing deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon, due to low stringency of the certification criteria and low enforcement of compliance to these criteria within certified operations.

    “A study on the Forest Stewardship 552 Council certification, a third-party standard, found it was not effective at reducing deforestation in the 553 Peruvian Amazon, due to low stringency of the certification criteria and low enforcement of compliance 554 to these criteria within certified operations [156].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [156] Alix-Garcia, 2017, Forest conservation effects of Brazil’s zero deforestation cattle agreements undermined by leakage, Glob. Environ. Change source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Agriculture (including cattle ranching) was the most researched proximate cause, with 146 cases covering the entire period of 1970-2019.

    “As shown in Figure 4, agriculture (including cattle ranching), was the most researched proximate 567 cause, with 146 cases covering the entire period of 1970-2019.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The research hotspots for deforestation from large-scale (soy) agriculture are Santa Cruz in Bolivia (5 cases) and the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil (36 cases).

    “The research hotspots for deforestation from large-scale (soy) agriculture are Santa Cruz in Bolivia 572 (5 cases) and the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil (36 cases).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Gold mining still shows up as a relatively minor overall cause of deforestation and is largely obscured as a subset of commodity-driven deforestation.

    “Yet it still shows up as relatively minor 638 overall cause of deforestation [] and is largely obscured as a subset of commodity-driven 639 deforestation”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingcitation

    G4 and TAC cattle ranching agreements did not provide additionality in preventing deforestation.

    “548 ranching agreements did not provide additionality in preventing deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [155] Jung, 2018, Partnerships to prevent deforestation in the Amazon, J. Environ. Econ. Manage. source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Economic factors were analyzed in all countries especially in Brazil (44 cases), but not in Colombia and Venezuela.

    “Economic factors were analyzed in all countries especially in Brazil (44 580 cases), but not in Colombia and Venezuela.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Most studies on technological drivers refer to the context of agricultural production, but usually just link technology to overall deforestation instead of a specific proximate deforestation cause.

    “Most studies on these drivers refer to the context of agricultural production, but usually just link 583 technology to overall deforestation instead of a specific proximate deforestation cause.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Economic factors (mostly market access) and technological ones (relating to the remaining forest area) were the next two largest clusters of moderating factors.

    “Economic factors (mostly market access) and technological ones (relating to 594 the remaining forest area) were the next two largest clusters of moderating factors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Kalamandeen et al. found that small-scale clearing has significantly increased in 2008-2014 in all Amazonian countries and has spread with lower density into isolated areas.

    “Kalamandeen et al. [159] found that small-scale clearing has 627 significantly increased in 2008-2014 in all Amazonian countries and has spread with lower density into 628 isolated areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [159] Sayre, 2015, Scales and polities source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    All papers were published between 2000 and 2021, but the studies have analyzed deforestation and land use data as early as 1970.

    “All papers were published between 2000 and 2021, but the studies have analyzed deforestation 277 and land use data as early as 1970.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    In the remaining countries, at least one case study researched the entire Amazon region of the respective country.

    “In the remaining 664 countries, at least one case study researched the entire Amazon region of the respective country.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Environmental factors were discussed in 17 cases, mostly in Brazil and Bolivia.

    “Environmental factors were discussed in 17 cases, mostly in Brazil and 587 Bolivia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Mining activity in official concessions can be small-or large-scale but illegal mining is rife and difficult to police due to accessibility issues and lack of resources by relevant countries.

    “Mining activity in official concessions can be small-or large-scale but illegal mining is rife and 645 difficult to police due to accessibility issues and lack of resources by relevant countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Gold mining has been confirmed as a major cause of deforestation in the Guianas and in Madre de Dios, Peru and comprised 12% of the cases in these two regions.

    “Gold mining has been confirmed as a major cause of deforestation in the Guianas and in Madre de 637 Dios, Peru and comprised 12% of the cases in these two regions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    There is no causal research of drivers or policies on Venezuela, southern Ecuador and parts of the Bolivian Amazon, and very little in the Guianas or the central Amazon region.

    “There is no causal research of drivers or policies on Venezuela, southern 730 Ecuador and parts of the Bolivian Amazon, and very little in the Guianas or the central Amazon region.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Brazil has the largest Amazonian territory and overall highest levels of deforestation, corresponding to the largest cattle herd and soy production areas.

    “Brazil has the largest Amazonian territory and overall highest levels of deforestation, 603 corresponding to the largest cattle herd and soy production areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Demographic factors were discussed in 13 cases, limited to the Ecuadorian and Brazilian Amazon.

    “Demographic factors were discussed in 13 cases, limited to the Ecuadorian and Brazilian 588 Amazon.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    A majority of the studies focused on the period after 2000.

    “A majority of the studies focused on the period after 2000.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Ecuador has a particularly high density of cases while Brazil has the largest amount of forest loss per area and cases.

    “Ecuador has a particularly high density of cases while Brazil has the 653 largest amount of forest loss per area and cases (Figure 3b, 4) [2,163].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [2] 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [163] 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Most institutional cases (21) were in Brazil where land conflict and tenure were commonly analyzed factors.

    “Most of these cases (21) were in Brazil where land conflict and tenure were 586 commonly analyzed factors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The Peruvian National Forest Conservation Program PES+ICDP decreased deforestation in other areas, but not within enrolled zones in the same community, as forests with low threats were chosen for enrollment.

    “The Peruvian National Forest Conservation Program PES+ICDP decreased deforestation in other 508 areas, but not within enrolled zones in the same community, as forests with low threats were chosen for 509 enrollment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [139] Correa, 2020, Evaluating REDD+ at subnational level: amazon fund impacts in Alta Floresta, Brazil, For. Policy Econ. source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Existing literature on deforestation drivers and policies follows these broad trends, with 65% of the cases focused on deforestation in Brazil, 31% of which were focused on analyzing agriculture as a proximate cause of deforestation.

    “Accordingly, existing literature on 604 deforestation drivers and policies follows these broad trends, with 65% of the cases focused on 605 deforestation in Brazil, 31% of which were focused on analyzing agriculture as a proximate cause of 606 deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Subsistence agriculture has received considerably less research (30 cases) and this is mostly in the form of very local case studies.

    “Subsistence agriculture has received considerably less research (30 574 cases) and this is mostly in the form of very local case studies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Brazil, both forest loss and number of local and regional cases were particularly high in the Pará, Mato Grosso, Rondônia (136 cases collectively).

    “In Brazil, both forest loss and number of local and regional cases were particularly 657 high in the Pará, Mato Grosso, Rondônia (136 cases collectively).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The first legal conservation area in the Amazon basin was established in 1929 in Guyana, but the largest number of legal conservation areas were declared over the last twenty years.

    “The first legal conservation area in the Amazon basin was established in 470 1929 in Guyana, but the largest number of legal conservation areas were declared over the last twenty 471 years.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Several interventions (indigenous areas, mixed use areas, and ZDCs) had cases of negative spillovers, while only protected areas and ICDPs included only positive spillovers.

    “Several interventions (indigenous areas, 692 mixed use areas, and ZDCs had cases of negative spillovers, while only protected areas and ICDPs 693 included only positive spillovers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Culture was rarely analyzed (9 cases) and this was predominantly in Beni, Bolivia and various provinces in Ecuador.

    “Culture was rarely analyzed (9 cases) and this was predominantly in Beni, Bolivia and various 589 provinces in Ecuador.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given

    Causal case study research obscures important findings from biome-wide studies on how political narratives about modernization and economic development influence clearing in the Amazon.

    “Nevertheless, causal case study research obscures 613 important findings from biome-wide studies on how political narratives about modernization and 614 economic development influence clearing in the Amazon”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This reduces the understanding of how drivers and policies affect each other and how their interactions affect deforestation.

    “This reduces the understanding 744 of how drivers and policies affect each other and how their interactions affect deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    These regions are still at risk of increased forest loss, especially as new drivers like mining and infrastructure emerge without suitable control policies.

    “However, these 739 regions are still at risk of increased forest loss, especially as new drivers like mining and infrastructure 740 emerge without suitable control policies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It demonstrates the geographic (and temporal) heterogeneity and complexity of deforestation drivers and governance issues and concludes that not all drivers are equally at play across the region.

    “It demonstrates the geographic (and temporal) heterogeneity and complexity of deforestation 722 drivers and governance issues and concludes that not all drivers are equally at play across the region.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    As the biome is integrated in many ways, effects of a local policy or driver on forests may carry across borders to other countries and biomes.

    “As the biome is 749 integrated in many ways, effects of a local policy or driver on forests may carry across borders to other 750 countries and biomes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Global synthesis reports link commodity expansion to growth in global and regional consumption of these products.

    “Global synthesis reports link this commodity expansion to growth in global and regional 609 consumption of these products [1].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    This corresponds closely to a shift in tropical deforestation agents described by Rudel.

    “This corresponds closely to a shift in tropical 612 deforestation agents described by Rudel [31].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Rudel, 2007, Changing agents of deforestation: from state-initiated to enterprise driven processes, 1970–2000, Land Use Policy source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    Global reviews indicate that PES schemes have been moderately effective in reducing forest loss in Latin America but have struggled to be impactful in terms of coverage area, in the absence of deforestation risks, and when confronted with insecure land tenure and weak governance.

    “Global reviews indicate that PES schemes have been moderately effective in reducing forest loss in 695 Latin America but have struggled to be impactful in terms of coverage area, in the absence of 696 deforestation risks, and when confronted with insecure land tenure and weak governance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The review therefore shows the importance of understanding local context and regional differences to better devise appropriate governance options.

    “The review therefore shows the 724 importance of understanding local context and regional differences to better devise appropriate 725 governance options.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Today, about 50% of Amazonian lands are under protection.

    “Today, about 50% of Amazonian lands are under protection [125].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [125] 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

55 of 55

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Full property rights are costly to attain and do not protect against encroachment.

    “Full property rights are costly to attain and do not protect against encroachment.”
1 of 1

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Large-scale gold mining is both studied and absent from the literature

    Minor

    The review reports a finding about deforestation caused by large-scale gold mining in Peru, then states that there was no literature on large-scale gold mining.

  • Two different counts of included articles

    Minor

    The paper says 155 articles met its inclusion criteria, but later says the review identified 150 articles.

  • Demographic-driver research in Colombia is omitted from the stated coverage

    Minor

    The paper identifies population size and growth as underlying drivers studied in Colombia, but later says cases discussing demographic factors were limited to Ecuador and Brazil.

3 of 3

Cites

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Related

Authors
Hänggli, A., Levy, S. A., Armenteras, D., Bovolo, C. I., Brandão, J., Rueda, X., & Garrett, R. D.
Affiliations
  • ETH Zurich (CH)
  • New York University (US)
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
  • Durham University (GB)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
  • Universidad de Los Andes (CO)
Corresponding author
Garrett, Rachael D
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2023-06-16
Volume
18
Issue
7
Pages
073001
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/acd408
OpenAlex
W4382487915
Semantic Scholar
f2a2621c880d68c2f2ceee5277b7ee60351a8bd2
Cited by
73
References
162
Citations by year
2026: 18 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 13
FWCI
8.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ETH Zürich Research Collection
Funders
H2020 European Research Council (949932)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Oil Palm Production and Sustainability
Keywords
deforestation drivers, Amazon biome, agricultural expansion, mining, infrastructure expansion, oil extraction, protected areas, land tenure, policy effectiveness

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-03.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-03.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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