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Cited by 549Tree-ring climate responsesPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsFire effects on ecosystems

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States

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Williams, A. Park, Allen, Craig D., Millar, Constance I., Swetnam, Thomas W., Michaelsen, Joel, Still, Christopher J., Leavitt, Steven W.·2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.0914211107PMC PMC3003095
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Abstract

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

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  • Projected increases in drought severity can also increase the incidence and extent of wildfires.

    “The projected increases in drought severity can also increase the incidence and extent of wildfires (73,74).”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [74]

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Authors
Williams, A. P., Allen, C. D., Millar, C. I., Swetnam, T. W., Michaelsen, J., Still, C. J., & Leavitt, S. W.
Affiliations
  • Geography Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060;
  • United States Geological Survey (US)
  • US Forest Service (US)
  • University of Arizona (US)
  • University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2010-12-13
Volume
107
Issue
50
Pages
21289-21294
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0914211107
PMC
PMC3003095
OpenAlex
W2130053413
Cited by
549
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 43 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 43 · 2014: 45 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 26
FWCI
16.77
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture
  • U.S. Geological Survey
  • U.S. Forest Service
  • University of California, Santa Barbara
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Keywords
tree-ring width, tree growth, aridity, drought, global warming, southwestern United States forests, climate change projections, tree mortality, forest fires, bark beetles, insect outbreaks, forest productivity, forest disturbance, adaptive forest management
MeSH terms
Animals, Climate, Computer Simulation, Fires, Insecta, Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Trees, Southwestern United States, Ecosystem, Droughts, Climate Change

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