Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties

Hessl, Amy E.

doi:10.1177/0309133311407654

Cited by 100Fire effects on ecosystemsPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsRangeland and Wildlife Management

Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties

Hessl, Amy E.·2011·Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

DOI 10.1177/0309133311407654

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Abstract

Fire is a global process affecting both the biosphere and the atmosphere. As a result, measuring rates of change in wildland fire and understanding the mechanisms responsible for such changes are important research goals. A large body of modeling studies projects increases in wildfire activity in future decades, but few empirical studies have documented change in modern fire regimes. Identifying generalizable pathways through which climate change may alter fire regimes is a critical next step for understanding, measuring, and modeling fire under a changing climate. In this progress report, I review recent model-, empirical-, and fire history-based studies of fire and climate change and propose three pathways along which fire regimes might respond to climate change: changes in fuel condition, fuel volume, and ignitions. Model- and empirical-based studies have largely focused on changes in fuel condition with some models projecting up to 50% increases in area burned under a 2 x CO 2 climate. Fire history data derived from tree-rings, sediment charcoal, and soil charcoal have helped identify past trajectories of change in fire regimes and can point to possible future conditions. However, most fire history research has focused on changes in area burned and fire frequency. Changes in fire severity may be equally important for the earth system and require further attention. Critical research needs include next generation dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) that consider changes in vegetation alongside changes in human activities and long fire history records from a variety of vegetation types suitable for validating these DGVMs.

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From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [55]

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Authors: Hessl, A. E.
Affiliations: West Virginia University (US)
Corresponding author: Hessl, Amy E.
ORCID: Hessl, Amy E.
Venue: Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2011-06
Volume: 35
Issue: 3
Pages: 393-407
ISSN: 0309-1333 (ISSN-L)
1477-0296
DOI: 10.1177/0309133311407654
OpenAlex: W1978300551
Cited by: 100
References: 128
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 11
FWCI: 10.62
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
Keywords: climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, fuel conditions, ignition, fire history, tree-ring records, soil charcoal, dynamic global vegetation models, fire severity, burned area, fire frequency

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Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties

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