The DOI matches its Crossref record; 37 of the 38 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands
Open accessAbstract
In the US Corn Belt, a recent doubling in commodity prices has created incentives for landowners to convert grassland to corn and soybean cropping. Here, we use land cover data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer to assess grassland conversion from 2006 to 2011 in the Western Corn Belt (WCB): five states including North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. Our analysis identifies areas with elevated rates of grass-to-corn/soy conversion (1.0–5.4% annually). Across the WCB, we found a net decline in grass-dominated land cover totaling nearly 530,000 ha. With respect to agronomic attributes of lands undergoing grassland conversion, corn/soy production is expanding onto marginal lands characterized by high erosion risk and vulnerability to drought. Grassland conversion is also concentrated in close proximity to wetlands, posing a threat to waterfowl breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region. Longer-term land cover trends from North Dakota and Iowa indicate that recent grassland conversion represents a persistent shift in land use rather than short-term variability in crop rotation patterns. Our results show that the WCB is rapidly moving down a pathway of increased corn and soybean cultivation. As a result, the window of opportunity for realizing the benefits of a biofuel industry based on perennial bioenergy crops, rather than corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, may be closing in the WCB.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated
Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B., & Rubel, F. (2006) · Meteorologische Zeitschrift · doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130 · Cited by 11,456
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152747 · Cited by 3,902
Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels
Hill, J., Nelson, E., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Tiffany, D. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0604600103 · Cited by 2,871
Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992
Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (1999) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/1999gb900046 · Cited by 2,074
Confronting a biome crisis: global disparities of habitat loss and protection
Hoekstra, J. M., Boucher, T. M., Ricketts, T. H., & Roberts, C. S. (2004) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00686.x · Cited by 1,905
Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s
Gibbs, H. K., Ruesch, A. S., Achard, F., Clayton, M. K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0910275107 · Cited by 1,876
Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass
Tilman, D., Hill, J., & Lehman, C. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1133306 · Cited by 1,813
Applied Spatial Statistics for Public Health Data
Waller, L. A., & Gotway, C. A. (2004) · Wiley series in probability and statistics · doi:10.1002/0471662682 · Cited by 1,611
Beneficial biofuels—the food, energy, and environment trilemma
Tilman, D., Socolow, R., Foley, J. A., Hill, J., Larson, E., Lynd, L., Pacala, S., Reilly, J., Searchinger, T., Somerville, C., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1177970 · Cited by 1,596
Vogelmann, J. E., Howard, S. M., Yang, L., Larson, C. R., Wylie, B. K., & Driel, J. N. V. (2001) · Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing · Cited by 1,120
Research works printed but not linked: 9
- R Claassen, F Carriazo, JC Cooper, D Hellerstein, K Ueda Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the Northern Plains: The Role of Crop Insurance, Commodity, and Disaster Programs. Economic Research Report No. ERR-120 (US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 2011).
- S Wallander, R Claassen, C Nickerson The Ethanol Decade: An Expansion of U.S. Corn Production, 2000–2009. EIB-79 (US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 2011).
- BG Peterjohn, JR Sauer, Population status of North American grassland birds. Stud Avian Biol 19, 27–44 (1999).
- DM Johnson, R Mueller, The 2009 cropland data layer. Photogramm Eng Remote Sensing 76, 1201–1205 (2010).
- C Boryan, Z Yang, R Mueller, M Craig, Monitoring US agriculture: The USDA, National Agricultural Statistics, Cropland Data Layer Program. Geocarto Int 84, 111–123 (2011).
- ; US Government Accountability Office Agricultural Conservation: Farm Program Payments Are an Important Factor in Landowner’s Decisions to Convert Grassland to Cropland. Report to Congressional Requesters, GAO-07-1054 (US Government Accountability Office, Washington, DC, 2007).
- VL McKusick Final Report of the Special Master with Certificate of Adoption of Republican River Compact Administration Groundwater Model (Supreme Court of the United States, Washington, DC, 2003).
- TE Dahl Wetland Losses in the United States: 1780s to 1980s (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, 1990).
- SK Skagen, PB Sharpe, RG Waltermire, MB Dillon Biogeographical Profiles of Shorebird Migration in Midcontinental North America. US Geological Survey Biological Science Report 2000–2003 (US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 1999).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Landscapes that work for biodiversity and people
Kremen, C., & Merenlender, A. M. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aau6020 · Cited by 1,125
Mapping the world's degraded lands
Gibbs, H. K., & Salmon, J. M. (2015) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.11.024 · Cited by 753
Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of land-use change in China during 2010–2015
Jia, N., Liu, J., Kuang, W., Xu, X., Zhang, S., Yan, C., Li, R., Wu, S., Hu, Y., Du, G., et al. (2018) · Journal of Geographical Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1490-0 · Cited by 727
Renewable energy and biodiversity: Implications for transitioning to a Green Economy
Gasparatos, A., Doll, C. N. H., Esteban, M., Ahmed, A., & Olang, T. A. (2016) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2016.08.030 · Cited by 618
Where Tree Planting and Forest Expansion are Bad for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Veldman, J. W., Overbeck, G. E., Negreiros, D., Mahy, G., Le Stradic, S., Fernandes, G. W., Durigan, G., Buisson, E., Putz, F. E., & Bond, W. J. (2015) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biv118 · Cited by 531
Metadata
- Authors
- Wright, C. K., & Wimberly, M. C.
- Affiliations
- South Dakota State University (US)
- ORCID
- Wimberly, Michael C.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2013-02-19
- Volume
- 110
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 4134-4139
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3593829
- OpenAlex
- W2040998916
- Cited by
- 860
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 66 · 2019: 76 · 2018: 85 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 90 · 2015: 87 · 2014: 78 · 2013: 25
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Socioeconomics of Resources and Conservation
- Keywords
- grassland conversion, land use change, Western Corn Belt, wetland loss, Prairie Pothole Region, waterfowl breeding habitat, marginal land, soil erosion, drought vulnerability, energy crops, perennial energy crops, commodity prices
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Conservation of Natural Resources, Zea mays, Poaceae, Glycine max, Midwestern United States, Ecosystem, Wetlands
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review