The change in oceanic O 2 inventory associated with recent global warming
Open accessAbstract
Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O 2 inventory and an associated O 2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O 2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol of O 2 per joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O 2 solubility, indicating that most of the O 2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O 2 inventory through the 1990s is estimated to be 0.3 ± 0.4 × 10 14 mol of O 2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O 2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O 2 /N 2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.
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Next generation GCMs predict a decline in dissolved oxygen with high certainty as a result of enhanced stratification and reduced ventilation.
“As a result of enhanced stratification and reduced ventilation, next generation GCMs predict a decline in dissolved oxygen with high certainty [37,52,53]”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [52]
The paper’s opening section says ocean general circulation models predict a global decline in dissolved O₂, mostly attributed to enhanced stratification; it also explains that stratification limits oxygen transport into the ocean interior. It does not identify the models as “next generation” or characterize the prediction as highly certain. The Discussion says direct observations are needed for a reliable assessment. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Cites
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- Authors
- Keeling, R. F., & Garcia, H. E.
- Affiliations
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- ORCID
- Keeling, Ralph F.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2002-06-04
- Volume
- 99
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 7848-7853
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC122983
- OpenAlex
- W2160458206
- Cited by
- 292
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 23 · 2012: 17
- FWCI
- 8.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NASA Technical Reports Server (NASA) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- global warming, ocean stratification, ocean biogeochemistry, ocean warming, ocean carbon budget, dissolved inorganic carbon, decadal variability
- MeSH terms
- Oxygen, Seawater, Temperature, Greenhouse Effect
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