Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World
Abstract
Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.
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Warming oceans contain less O2 and are expected to exhibit increased stratification and reduced ventilation rates, leading to further ocean dissolved oxygen reductions beyond the 2% decline measured over the last half century.
“Warming oceans contain less O 2 and are expected to exhibit increased stratification and reduced ventilation rates, leading to further ocean dissolved oxygen (DO) reductions (Keeling et al., 2010;Shepherd et al., 2017) beyond the 2% decline measured over the last half century (Schmidtko et al., 2017).”
From Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (<i>Argopecten irradians irradians</i>) amid a fishery collapse (2023) · cites this paper as Keeling et al., 2010
Even today many regions of Earth's oceans are poised on the brink of anoxic conditions.
“Indeed, even today many regions of Earth's oceans are poised on the brink of anoxic conditions (Keeling et al. 2010), and such regions are often critically important for the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of many linked major and trace element species.”
From The History of Ocean Oxygenation (2022) · cites this paper as Keeling et al. 2010
Next generation GCMs predict a decline in dissolved oxygen with high certainty as a result of enhanced stratification and reduced ventilation.
“As a result of enhanced stratification and reduced ventilation, next generation GCMs predict a decline in dissolved oxygen with high certainty [37,52,53]”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [53]
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Physical‐biological interactions in North Pacific oxygen variability
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Decadal water mass variations along 20°W in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean
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Self-citationDecadal changes in Pacific carbon
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Representation of the carbon cycle in box models and GCMs, 2, Organic pump
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Self-citationOcean metabolism observed with oxygen sensors on profiling floats in the South Pacific
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Interdecadal water mass changes in the Southern Ocean between 30°E and 160°E
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Decadal Changes in the South Indian Ocean Thermocline
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How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?
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Self-citationCarbon dioxide and oxygen fluxes in the Southern Ocean: Mechanisms of interannual variability
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Noise-Induced Transitions in a Simplified Model of the Thermohaline Circulation
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Oxygen tongues and zonal currents in the equatorial Atlantic
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Warming and circulation change in the eastern South Pacific Ocean
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Temporal changes in dissolved oxygen of the intermediate water in the subarctic North Pacific
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Decadal increases of anthropogenic CO2 in the South Pacific subtropical ocean along 32°S
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Self-citationBrennan, C. E., Matear, R. J., & Keller, K. M. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jc004113 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
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McHugh, M. (2004) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017
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Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters
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Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems
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The geological cycle of plastics and their use as a stratigraphic indicator of the Anthropocene
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Deep, diverse and definitely different: Unique attributes of the world’s largest ecosystem
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Man and the Last Great Wilderness: Human Impact on the Deep Sea
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The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal and Open-Ocean Biogeochemistry
Doney, S. C. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1185198 · Cited by 840 · see citing works
Human Health and Ocean Pollution
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Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms: Insights and perspective
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Beyond the Calvin Cycle: Autotrophic Carbon Fixation in the Ocean
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Can Seaweed Farming Play a Role in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation?
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Microbial Nitrogen Cycling Processes in Oxygen Minimum Zones
Lam, P., & Kuypers, M. M. M. (2010) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120709-142814 · Cited by 660 · see citing works
Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts
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Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health
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Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century
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Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production
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Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change
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Self-citationDrivers and mechanisms of ocean deoxygenation.
Oschlies, A., Brandt, P., Stramma, L., & Schmidtko, S. (2018) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0152-2 · Cited by 565 · see citing works
Expansion of oxygen minimum zones may reduce available habitat for tropical pelagic fishes
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Self-citationMarine Primary Production in Relation to Climate Variability and Change
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Future ocean acidification will be amplified by hypoxia in coastal habitats
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Self-citationMicrobial ecology of expanding oxygen minimum zones
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Global Nitrogen Cycle: Critical Enzymes, Organisms, and Processes for Nitrogen Budgets and Dynamics
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Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems
Bakun, A., Black, B. A., Bograd, S. J., García-Reyes, M., Miller, A. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., & Sydeman, W. J. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Microbial oceanography of anoxic oxygen minimum zones
Ulloa, O., Canfield, D. E., DeLong, E. F., Letelier, R. M., & Stewart, F. J. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1205009109 · Cited by 460 · see citing works
Major impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems
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The Global Distribution and Dynamics of Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter
Nelson, N. B., & Siegel, D. A. (2011) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100751 · Cited by 431 · see citing works
Rapid Progression of Ocean Acidification in the California Current System
Gruber, N., Hauri, C., Lachkar, Z., Loher, D., Frölicher, T. L., & Plattner, G. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1216773 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Self-citationEffects of UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with other environmental factors
Häder, D., Williamson, C. E., Wängberg, S., Rautio, M., Rose, K. C., Gao, K., Helbling, E. W., Sinha, R. P., & Worrest, R. C. (2014) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/c4pp90035a · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Observing the Global Ocean with Biogeochemical-Argo
Claustre, H., Johnson, K. S., & Takeshita, Y. (2019) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010956 · Cited by 405 · see citing works
Global declines in oceanic nitrification rates as a consequence of ocean acidification
Beman, J. M., Chow, C. T., King, A. L., Feng, Y., Fuhrman, J. A., Andersson, A. J., Bates, N. R., Popp, B. N., & Hutchins, D. A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1011053108 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Marine viruses and global climate change
Danovaro, R., Corinaldesi, C., Dell’Anno, A., Fuhrman, J. A., Middelburg, J. J., Noble, R. T., & Suttle, C. A. (2010) · FEMS Microbiology Reviews · doi:10.1111/j.1574-6976.2010.00258.x · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Doney, S. C., Long, M. C., & Misumi, K. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00566.1 · Cited by 389 · see citing works
Eutrophication-Driven Deoxygenation in the Coastal Ocean
Rabalais, N. N., Cai, W., Carstensen, J., Conley, D. J., Fry, B., Hu, X., Quiñones‐Rivera, Z. J., Rosenberg, R., Slomp, C. P., Turner, E., et al. (2014) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.21 · Cited by 389 · see citing works
The deep ocean under climate change
Levin, L. A., & Bris, N. L. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad0126 · Cited by 375 · see citing works
Climate-Forced Variability of Ocean Hypoxia
Deutsch, C. A., Brix, H., Ito, T., Frenzel, H., & Thompson, L. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1202422 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
Centers of organic carbon burial and oxidation at the land-ocean interface
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Oceanographic and Biological Effects of Shoaling of the Oxygen Minimum Zone
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Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean
Helm, K. P., Bindoff, N. L., & Church, J. A. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl049513 · Cited by 357 · see citing works
Hypoxia and acidification in ocean ecosystems: coupled dynamics and effects on marine life
Gobler, C. J., & Baumann, H. (2016) · Biology Letters · doi:10.1098/rsbl.2015.0976 · Cited by 354 · see citing works
Critical oxygen levels and metabolic suppression in oceanic oxygen minimum zones
Seibel, B. A. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Biology · doi:10.1242/jeb.049171 · Cited by 354 · see citing works
Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models
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Nitrogen cycling driven by organic matter export in the South Pacific oxygen minimum zone
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Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean
Gruber, N., Boyd, P. W., Frölicher, T. L., & Vogt, M. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03981-7 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
Self-citationEvidence That Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts
Micheli, F., Sáenz‐Arroyo, A., Greenley, A. P., Vázquez, L., Montes, J. A. E., Rossetto, M., & Leo, G. A. D. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040832 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Global Observing Needs in the Deep Ocean
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Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change
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Self-citationBennett, N. J., Blythe, J. L., Tyler, S., & Ban, N. C. (2015) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0839-5 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Oxygen Sensitivity of Anammox and Coupled N-Cycle Processes in Oxygen Minimum Zones
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Evidence for greater oxygen decline rates in the coastal ocean than in the open ocean
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Climate change and the oceans – What does the future hold?
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Self-citationImpacts of hypoxic events surpass those of future ocean warming and acidification
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- Authors
- Keeling, R. F., Körtzinger, A., & Gruber, N.
- Affiliations
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Venue
- Annual Review of Marine Science
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2010-01-01
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 199-229
- ISSN
- 1941-0611 (ISSN-L)
- 1941-1405
- OpenAlex
- W2131829457
- Cited by
- 1,712
- References
- 150
- Citations by year
- 2026: 112 · 2025: 123 · 2024: 157 · 2023: 187 · 2022: 128 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 89 · 2016: 84 · 2015: 92 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 71 · 2012: 77
- FWCI
- 5.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Marine Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Keywords
- ocean deoxygenation, ocean warming, ocean stratification, dissolved oxygen, oxygen minimum zone, ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycle, marine habitats, North Pacific, tropical oceans, ocean observing systems
- MeSH terms
- Environmental Monitoring, Oceans and Seas, Oxygen, Seawater, Ecosystem, Global Warming
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