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Lack of group-to-individual generalizability is a threat to human subjects research
Open accessAbstract
Significance: The current study quantified the degree to which group data are able to describe individual participants. We utilized intensive repeated-measures data—data that have been collected many times, across many individuals—to compare the distributions of bivariate correlations calculated within subjects vs. those calculated between subjects. Because the vast majority of social and medical science research aggregates across subjects, we aimed to assess how closely such aggregations reflect their constituent individuals. We provide evidence that conclusions drawn from aggregated data may be worryingly imprecise. Specifically, the variance in individuals is up to four times larger than in groups. These data call for a focus on idiography and open science that may substantially alter best-practice guidelines in the medical and behavioral sciences.
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“Given that between-person differences do not necessarily generalize to within-person changes (Fisher et al., 2018), it is important to confirm previous between-person results regarding the structure of aversive reactivity and its associations with symptom change and extend these results to withinperson processes.”
From Within-person changes in aversive reactivity predict session-to-session reductions in anxiety and depression in the unified protocol. (2024) · cites this paper as Fisher et al., 2018
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“In doing this, SCEDs provide evidence of the effectiveness of interventions, drawing on substantially fewer participants than nomothetic approaches (such as RCTs) [51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58].”
From Brief and Telehealth Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) Interventions for Stress in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD): A Series of Single Case Experimental Design (SCED) Studies (2022) · cites this paper as [52]
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“in clinical trials, individual outcomes within tested groups are aggregated but outcomes between individuals are rarely the same (e.g., the variance in individuals can be up to four times greater than in groups [12,13]).”
From Hasty generalizations and generics in medical research: A systematic review (2024) · cites this paper as [13]
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“However, it has been recognised that the inherent clinical heterogeneity associated with mental disorders may necessitate a greater focus on inter-individual differences to ensure generalisability to unseen cases (39, 43, 44).”
From Personalised depression forecasting using mobile sensor data and ecological momentary assessment (2022) · cites this paper as [44]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Fisher, A. J., Medaglia, J. D., & Jeronimus, B. F.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Drexel University (US)
- University of Groningen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Fisher, Aaron J.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-06-18
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 27
- Pages
- E6106-E6115
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC6142277
- OpenAlex
- W2808831456
- Cited by
- 1,099
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 126 · 2025: 159 · 2024: 132 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 139 · 2021: 137 · 2020: 135 · 2019: 106 · 2018: 21
- FWCI
- 82.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- HHS | NIH | National Institute of Mental Health (1-DP5- OD021352)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Reliability and Agreement in Measurement
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Keywords
- within-person variability, interindividual variability, aggregation bias, individual differences
- MeSH terms
- Anxiety Disorders, Bipolar Disorder, Female, Humans, Male, Psychotherapy, Group
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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