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Cited by 360Grief, Bereavement, and Mental HealthCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States

Open access
Verdery, Ashton M., Smith-Greenaway, Emily, Margolis, Rachel, Daw, Jonathan·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2007476117PMC PMC7395491
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Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.

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  • Children who lose caregivers to the pandemic may face intensified trauma and may have an immediate need for kinship or foster care at a time when pandemic restrictions may limit access to protective services.

    “Children who lose caregivers to the pandemic may face intensified trauma and may have an immediate need for kinship or foster care at a time when pandemic restrictions may limit access to protective services.12–15”

    From COVID-19–Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States (2021) · cites this paper as [12]

    The Discussion (page not provided) says COVID-19 kin loss may be unusually traumatizing, and the paper links parental or grandparental loss among youth to adverse outcomes and reduced caregiver attention. It does not address an immediate need for kinship or foster care, or restrictions limiting access to protective services. (LLM, conf=0.87)

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  • During an unprecedented pandemic, many children are at risk for such loss because 23% of American children live in single-headed households.

    “During an unprecedented pandemic, many children are at risk for such loss because 23% of American children live in single-headed households.11,12”

    From COVID-19–Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States (2021) · cites this paper as [12]

    The Abstract (page not available) says younger people may lose parents or grandparents to COVID-19, supporting the claim that children face a risk of kin loss. Neither the supplied passages nor searches of our copy for the 23% figure and single-headed households support the statistic or the proposed reason for that risk. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • For every loss due to COVID-19, approximately nine family members will be affected and in mourning.

    “According to recent studies, for every loss due to COVID-19, approximately nine family members will be affected and in mourning (Verdery, Smith-Greenaway, Margolis, & Daw, 2020).”

    From Prolonged grief disorder treatment: An approach to COVID-19 grief (2023) · cites this paper as Verdery et al., 2020

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. 10.1007/s13524-012-0162-4 · DOI
  2. N. Balbo, F. Billari, A. Melegaro, The strength of family ties and COVID-19. Contexts (2020).

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Authors
Verdery, A. M., Smith-Greenaway, E., Margolis, R., & Daw, J.
Affiliations
  • Pennsylvania State University (US)
  • Department of Sociology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089;
  • Western University (CA)
Corresponding author
Verdery, Ashton M.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2020-07-10
Volume
117
Issue
30
Pages
17695-17701
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2007476117
PMC
PMC7395491
OpenAlex
W3041145343
Cited by
360
References
64
Citations by year
2026: 26 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 93 · 2022: 69 · 2021: 88 · 2020: 12
FWCI
26.17
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • HHS | NIH | National Institute on Aging (1R01AG060949)
  • HHS | NIH | Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2C-HD041025)
  • University of Southern California Center for the Changing Family (0000)
  • Gouvernement du Canada | Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MYB-150262)
  • Gouvernement du Canada | Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (435-2017-0618, 890-2016-9000)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Grief, Bereavement, and Mental Health
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, bereavement, family networks, COVID-19 mortality, racial disparities, family grief, United States
MeSH terms
Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Bereavement, Child, Child, Preschool, Ethnicity, Family, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Viral, Prospective Studies, United States, Models, Statistical, Survival Rate, Coronavirus Infections, Spouses, Siblings, Young Adult, Pandemics

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