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Cited by 19Electric Vehicles and InfrastructureClimate Change Policy and EconomicsInnovation Diffusion and Forecasting

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Coordination dynamics between fuel cell and battery technologies in the transition to clean cars

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Dugoua, Eugenie, Dumas, Marion·2024·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2318605121PMC PMC11228490
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Abstract

Significant progress reconciling economic activities with a stable climate requires radical and rapid technological change in multiple sectors. Here, we study the case of the automotive industry’s transition to electric vehicles, which involved choosing between two different technologies: fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We know very little about the role that such technological uncertainty plays in shaping the strategies of firms, the efficacy of technological and climate policies, and the speed of technological transitions. Here, we explain that the choice between these two technologies posed a global and multisectoral coordination game, due to technological complementarities and the global organization of the industry’s markets and supply chains. We use data on patents, supply-chain relationships, and national policies to document historical trends and industry dynamics for these two technologies. While the industry initially focused on FCEVs, around 2008, the technological paradigm shifted to BEVs. National-level policies had a limited ability to coordinate global players around a type of clean car technology. Instead, exogenous innovation spillovers from outside the automotive sector played a critical role in solving this coordination game in favor of BEVs. Our results suggest that global and cross-sectoral technology policies may be needed to accelerate low-carbon technological change in other sectors, such as shipping or aviation. This enriches the existing theoretical paradigm, which ignores the scale of interdependencies between technologies and firms.

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Fig. 1. Clean car development as a global coordination game. Panel (A) illustrates that road transport systems based on FCEVs and BEVs require very different sets of complements. Panel (B) shows the global tier-1 supplier network for the ten largest carmakers. Green nodes are carmakers; white nodes are suppliers; their size is proportional to the number of links to carmakers. Panel (C) makes predictions about the scale of coordination needed to enable investments in a radically new technology based on the extent of two critical factors: technological complementarities and the degree of market integration.
Fig. 1. Clean car development as a global coordination game. Panel (A) illustrates that road transport systems based on FCEVs and BEVs require very different sets of complements. Panel (B) shows the global tier-1 supplier network for the ten largest carmakers. Green nodes are carmakers; white nodes are suppliers; their size is proportional to the number of links to carmakers. Panel (C) makes predictions about the scale of coordination needed to enable investments in a radically new technology based on the extent of two critical factors: technological complementarities and the degree of market integration.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 2. Carmakers’ patenting trends: the decline of fuel cells in favor of batteries. Panel (A) plots the number of patent families, filed by at least one carmaker, related to battery or fuel cell technology over time. Panel (B) plots, for each carmaker, the difference between battery and fuel cell patent shares within carmakers’ clean car patent portfolio. The carmakers with the most substantial clean car patent output are highlighted, alongside newcomers Tesla and Chery.
Fig. 2. Carmakers’ patenting trends: the decline of fuel cells in favor of batteries. Panel (A) plots the number of patent families, filed by at least one carmaker, related to battery or fuel cell technology over time. Panel (B) plots, for each carmaker, the difference between battery and fuel cell patent shares within carmakers’ clean car patent portfolio. The carmakers with the most substantial clean car patent output are highlighted, alongside newcomers Tesla and Chery.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 3. Policy support for fuel cells vs. battery. Panels (A) and (B) display the history of strategic orientations and public RD&D funding related to clean vehicles by country over time. The gaps in A represent periods without explicit policies on alternative vehicle technology. For instance, during the Trump administration years in the United States, we did not identify any such policies. The Left panel on B shows public RD&D funding for fuel cells and hydrogen, while the Right panel shows data for electric energy storage. Panel (C) displays trends in patenting and policy exposure for the average carmaker.
Fig. 3. Policy support for fuel cells vs. battery. Panels (A) and (B) display the history of strategic orientations and public RD&D funding related to clean vehicles by country over time. The gaps in A represent periods without explicit policies on alternative vehicle technology. For instance, during the Trump administration years in the United States, we did not identify any such policies. The Left panel on B shows public RD&D funding for fuel cells and hydrogen, while the Right panel shows data for electric energy storage. Panel (C) displays trends in patenting and policy exposure for the average carmaker.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 4. Cross-sectoral spillovers and greening of the supply chain. The figures illustrate the role and importance of cross-sectoral spillovers for innovation on fuel cells and battery technologies. Panel (A) overlays patenting trends outside the car industry and information on the evolution of fuel cells and battery costs over time. We classify patents according to the industry of the filing firm. Panel (B) examines patenting trends for “active” suppliers–those with a documented supply relationship with a carmaker in year t. Panel (C), on the other hand, shows the average stock of battery and fuel cell patents for preexisting suppliers and new suppliers, i.e., suppliers that form a link to a carmaker which was not observed before.
Fig. 4. Cross-sectoral spillovers and greening of the supply chain. The figures illustrate the role and importance of cross-sectoral spillovers for innovation on fuel cells and battery technologies. Panel (A) overlays patenting trends outside the car industry and information on the evolution of fuel cells and battery costs over time. We classify patents according to the industry of the filing firm. Panel (B) examines patenting trends for “active” suppliers–those with a documented supply relationship with a carmaker in year t. Panel (C), on the other hand, shows the average stock of battery and fuel cell patents for preexisting suppliers and new suppliers, i.e., suppliers that form a link to a carmaker which was not observed before.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

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References 68 · Cited by 19

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Metadata

Authors
Dugoua, E., & Dumas, M.
Affiliations
  • Ifo Institute for Economic Research (DE)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
Corresponding author
  • Dugoua, Eugenie
  • Dumas, Marion
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2024-06-24
Volume
121
Issue
27
Pages
e2318605121-e2318605121
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2318605121
PMC
PMC11228490
OpenAlex
W4399985355
Cited by
19
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4
FWCI
1.89
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • UKRI | Economic and Social Research Council (ES/R009708/1)
  • Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (G-2019-12323.)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
Keywords
fuel cell vehicles, battery electric vehicles, electric vehicle transition, coordination games, technology complementarity, technological uncertainty, innovation spillovers, automotive industry, supply chain, patents, climate policy

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Coordination dynamics between fuel cell and battery technologies in the transition to clean cars. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1073/pnas.2318605121
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Dugoua, E., & Dumas, M. (2024). Coordination dynamics between fuel cell and battery technologies in the transition to clean cars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318605121