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The Uncertain Geographic Context Problem
Abstract
Any study that examines the effects of area-based attributes on individual behaviors or outcomes faces another fundamental methodological problem besides the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). It is the problem that results about these effects can be affected by how contextual units or neighborhoods are geographically delineated and the extent to which these areal units deviate from the true geographic context. The problem arises because of the spatial uncertainty in the actual areas that exert the contextual influences under study and the temporal uncertainty in the timing and duration in which individuals experienced these contextual influences. Using neighborhood effects and environmental health research as a point of departure, this article clarifies the nature and sources of this problem, which is referred to as the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). It highlights some of the inferential errors that the UGCoP might cause and discusses some means for mitigating the problem. It reviews recent studies to show that both contextual variables and research findings are sensitive to different delineations of contextual units. The article argues that the UGCoP is a problem as fundamental as the MAUP but is a different kind of problem. Future research needs to pay explicit attention to its potential confounding effects on research results and to methods for mitigating the problem.
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“Another limitation is that the segregation analysis was conducted at the statistical sector level, which introduces uncertainties due to variations in geography and scale (Kwan 1998(Kwan , 2012)).”
From Visitation patterns across mobility groups: wandering, commuting, and exploring (2026) · cites this paper as Kwan 2012
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kwan, M.-P.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kwan, Mei-Po
- ORCID
- Kwan, Mei-Po
- Venue
- Annals of the Association of American Geographers
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 958-968
- ISSN
- 0004-5608 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-8306
- OpenAlex
- W1987264627
- Cited by
- 1,413
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 182 · 2025: 138 · 2024: 119 · 2023: 113 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 116 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 123 · 2018: 91 · 2017: 66 · 2016: 64 · 2015: 60 · 2014: 59 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 116.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annals of the Association of American Geographers (publishedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Keywords
- modifiable areal unit problem, neighborhood effects, spatial uncertainty, temporal uncertainty, environmental health, confounding
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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