Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution
Abstract
The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
AI involves establishing heavy energy dependency due to intensive use of innovative technologies, increasing environmental impacts, extending car traveling distance, and causing urban sprawl.
“AI involves establishing heavy energy dependency due to the intensive use of innovative technologies, increasing environmental impacts [[280], [281]], extending car traveling distance, and causing urban sprawl [249].”
From Smarter eco-cities and their leading-edge artificial intelligence of things solutions for environmental sustainability: A comprehensive systematic review (2024) · cites this paper as [249]
Cites
Transportation Research Record
Olesen, A. V., Kjems, E., Reinau, K. H., & Jensen, O. B. (2016) · Cited by 11,522 · see citing works
Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem
Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261737 · Cited by 3,194 · see citing works
UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Planning
Waddell, P. A. (2002) · Journal of the American Planning Association · doi:10.1080/01944360208976274 · Cited by 1,215 · see citing works
Spieser, K., Treleaven, K., Zhang, R., Frazzoli, E., Morton, D., & Pavone, M. (2014) · Lecture notes in mobility · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_20 · Cited by 442 · see citing works
Autonomous vehicles: The next jump in accessibilities?
Meyer, J., Becker, H., Bösch, P. M., & Axhausen, K. W. (2017) · Research in Transportation Economics · doi:10.1016/j.retrec.2017.03.005 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Current operational urban land‐use–transport modelling frameworks: A review
HUNT, J. D., Kriger, D., & Miller, E. J. (2005) · Transport Reviews · doi:10.1080/0144164052000336470 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
Integrated Land Use and Transport Modelling
de la Barra, T. (1989) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511552359 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
A Dynamic Model of Growth in a Central Place System
Allen, P. M., & Sanglier, M. (1979) · Geographical Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.1979.tb00693.x · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Land use–transport interaction modeling: A review of the literature and future research directions
Acheampong, R. A., & Silva, E. A. (2015) · Journal of Transport and Land Use · doi:10.5198/jtlu.2015.806 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Anas, A., & Liu, Y. (2007) · Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00515.x · Cited by 192 · see citing works
The MEPLAN models of Bilbao, Leeds and Dortmund
Echeñique, M., Flowerdew, A. D. J., Hunt, J. D., et al. (1990) · Transport Reviews · doi:10.1080/01441649008716764 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
The Bid—Choice Land-Use Model: An Integrated Economic Framework
Martínez, F. (1992) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a240871 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
The Design of the Delta Land-Use Modelling Package
Simmonds, D. (1999) · Environment and Planning B Planning and Design · doi:10.1068/b260665 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
A spatial model of urban stock and activity
Echeñique, M., Crowther, D., & Lindsay, W. (1969) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/09595236900185291 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Modeling Urban Decline: A Multilevel Economic-Demographic Model for the Dortmund Region
Wegener, M. (1982) · International Regional Science Review · doi:10.1177/016001768200700207 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Dynamic models of urban growth
Allen, P. D., & Sanglier, M. (1978) · Journal of Social and Biological Systems · doi:10.1016/0140-1750(78)90026-x · Cited by 88 · see citing works
RAMBLAS: A Regional Planning Model Based on the Microsimulation of Daily Activity Travel Patterns
Veldhuisen, J., Timmermans, H. J. P., & Kapoen, L. (2000) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a325 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Batty, M., Longley, P., & Elden, S. (2012) · Sage eBooks · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Burnett, P., & Hanson, S. (1982) · Transportation Research Part A General · doi:10.1016/0191-2607(82)90001-2 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Yamins, D. L. K., Rasmussen, S., & Fogel, D. (2003) · Networks and Spatial Economics · doi:10.1023/a:1022001117715 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Blijie, H. P. (2010) · Advances in spatial science · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12788-5 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Transportation and spatial development: An overview and a future direction
Kii, M., Nakanishi, H., Nakamura, K., & Doi, K. (2016) · Transport Policy · doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.04.015 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Preliminary results from an integrated transportation and land use models package
Putman, S. H. (1974) · Transportation · doi:10.1007/bf00165487 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Moekel, R., Spiekermann, K., Schürmann, C., et al. (2003) · International Journal of Urban Sciences · doi:10.1080/12265934.2003.9693520 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Towards an Agent-based, Integrated Land-use Transport Modeling System
Ziemke, D., Nagel, K., & Moeckel, R. (2016) · Procedia Computer Science · doi:10.1016/j.procs.2016.04.192 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
The Corner-Shop to Supermarket Transition in Retailing: The Beginnings of Empirical Evidence
Wilson, A. G., & Oulton, M. J. (1983) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a150265 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Integrated land use — transport models
Mackett, R. L. (1985) · Transport Reviews · doi:10.1080/01441648508716610 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
SIMULACRA: Fast Land-Use—Transportation Models for the Rapid Assessment of Urban Futures
Batty, M., Vargas, C., Smith, D., et al. (2013) · Environment and Planning B Planning and Design · doi:10.1068/b4006mb · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Recent perspectives on the impact of autonomous vehicles
Hörl, S., Ciari, F., & Axhausen, K. W. (2016) · doi:10.13140/rg.2.2.26690.17609 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Mathematical models for the study of HIV spread and control amongst men who have sex with men
Punyacharoensin, N., Edmunds, W. J., Angelis, D. D., & White, R. G. (2011) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-011-9614-1 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
An international study on land‐use and transport interaction
Webster, F., & Paulley, N. (1990) · Transport Reviews · doi:10.1080/01441649008716763 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Socioeconomic networks with long-range interactions
Carvalho, R., & Iori, G. (2008) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.78.016110 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory
Iacono, M., Levinson, D. M., & El-Geneidy, A. (2008) · Journal of Planning Literature · doi:10.1177/0885412207314010 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
New roles for urban models: planning for the long term
Wilson, A. G. (2015) · Regional Studies Regional Science · doi:10.1080/21681376.2015.1109474 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Parvaneh, Z., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. J. P. (2014) · Transportation research procedia · doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2014.10.087 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., & Rosqvist, L. S. (2008) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.001 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A quasi-equilibrium approach for market clearing in land use microsimulations
Hurtubia, R., Martínez, F., & Bierlaire, M. (2017) · Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science · doi:10.1177/2399808317719071 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Moeckel, R. (2015) · mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Cost-based analysis of autonomous vehicle services
Becker, H. (2017) · ETH Zürich Research Collection · doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000130582 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review
Narayanan, S., Chaniotakis, E., & Antoniou, C. (2020) · Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/j.trc.2019.12.008 · Cited by 691 · see citing works
Bibri, S. E., Krogstie, J., Kaboli, A., & Alahi, A. (2024) · Environmental Science and Ecotechnology · doi:10.1016/j.ese.2023.100330 · Cited by 536 · see citing works
Yigitcanlar, T., & Cugurullo, F. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12208548 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
Urban artificial intelligence: from automation to autonomy in the smart city
Cugurullo, F. (2020) · Frontiers in Sustainable Cities · doi:10.3389/frsc.2020.00038 · Cited by 290 · see citing works
The Politics of Uncertainty: Challenges of Transformation
Scoones, I., & Stirling, A. (2020) · doi:10.4324/9781003023845 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
The transition to autonomous cars, the redesign of cities and the future of urban sustainability
Cugurullo, F., Acheampong, R. A., Gueriau, M., & Dusparic, I. (2021) · Urban Geography · doi:10.1080/02723638.2020.1746096 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
A global horizon scan of the future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on urban ecosystems
Goddard, M. A., Davies, Z. G., Guenat, S., Ferguson, M. J., Fisher, J. C., Akanni, A., Ahjokoski, T., Anderson, P. M. L., Angeoletto, F., Antoniou, C., et al. (2021) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-020-01358-z · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Mapping Two Decades of Autonomous Vehicle Research: A Systematic Scientometric Analysis
Faisal, A., Yigitcanlar, T., Kamruzzaman, M., & Paz, A. (2021) · Journal of Urban Technology · doi:10.1080/10630732.2020.1780868 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Yu, J. (2025) · Transport Policy · doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.030 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hawkins, J., & Nurul Habib, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Corresponding author
- Hawkins, Jason
- Venue
- Transport Reviews
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-03-12
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 66-83
- ISSN
- 0144-1647 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-5327
- OpenAlex
- W2793921172
- Cited by
- 106
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 6.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Transport Reviews (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Ontario Graduate Scholarship
- NSERC Discover Grant
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Keywords
- autonomous vehicles, land use and transportation integration, parking demand, urban sprawl, agglomeration economies, spatial economics, complexity theory, travel time sensitivity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
