Frequent but Accurate: A Closer Look at Uncertainty and Opinion Divergence in Climate Change Print News
Open accessAbstract
The prevalence of uncertainty and opinion divergence frames in climate change news reporting has generated concerns about the misrepresentation of scientific consensus. We first develop reliable, valid, and more nuanced measures of often-conflated types of uncertainty and opinion divergence frames. Then we analyse the co-occurrence combinations of those distinct types of opinions, sources, and topics in mainstream climate change news stories between 2005 and 2015. Results indicate that while uncertainty and opinion divergence frames are indeed frequent, once clearly distinguished, they in general accurately reference non-scientist sources (e.g. government officials) and topics that do not have a scientific consensus (e.g. the severity of climate change effects).
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Prior research has identified the four uncertainty types in real-world public science communication.
“prior research has identified these types in real-world public science communication (Antilla, 2005;Rice et al., 2018;Zehr, 2000).”
From A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication (2020) · cites this paper as Rice et al., 2018
Section 5.1.1 identifies deficient and technical uncertainty in sampled climate-change news articles, supporting the claim that uncertainty types were identified in real-world public science communication. But Section 2.1 explicitly distinguishes two types of uncertainty, not four; it separately identifies three types of opinion divergence. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredContent analyses of public-facing science communication show that scientists and journalists frequently qualify their descriptions of scientific findings with portrayals of uncertainty.
“Content analyses of public-facing science communication show that scientists and journalists frequently qualify their descriptions of scientific findings with portrayals of uncertainty (e.g., Rice et al., 2018;Ruhrmann, Guenther, and Kessler, 2015)”
From A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication (2020) · cites this paper as Rice et al., 2018
Section 6.1 (page not provided) says uncertainty portrayals were frequent in mainstream climate-change print journalism. But it says the vast majority involved non-scientist sources and topics without established scientific consensus, so it does not support the broader claim that scientists and journalists frequently qualify descriptions of scientific findings. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe quality and accuracy of caveats in journalism coverage vary relative to the type, source, and subject of uncertainty.
“varying in quality and accuracy relative to the type, source, and subject of uncertainty (Rice, Gustafson, and Hoffman, 2018)”
From A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication (2020) · cites this paper as Rice, Gustafson, and Hoffman, 2018
Communicating uncertainty has been identified by scholars as a type of framing in science communication.
“communicating uncertainty has been identified by scholars as a type of framing in science communication (Gustafson and Rice, 2019;Rice et al., 2018;Ruhrmann et al., 2015;Simis, 2013).”
From A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication (2020) · cites this paper as Rice et al., 2018
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- Authors
- Rice, R. E., Gustafson, A., & Hoffman, Z.
- Affiliations
- Oracle, Santa Monica, CA, USA
- Corresponding author
- Rice, Ronald E.
- Venue
- Environmental Communication
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-02-05
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 301-321
- ISSN
- 1752-4032 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-4040
- OpenAlex
- W2793001549
- Cited by
- 39
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 10.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Environmental Communication (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Communication › Media Studies and Communication
- Social Sciences › Communication › Communication and COVID-19 Impact
- Keywords
- climate change news, uncertainty framing, scientific consensus, news media coverage, government officials, print news
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