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Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s
Open accessAbstract
Even before the Great Recession, US employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable employment gains achieved during the 1990s, with a historic contraction in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. We estimate that import competition from China, which surged after 2000, was a major force behind both recent reductions in US manufacturing employment and—through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium channels—weak overall US job growth. Our central estimates suggest job losses from rising Chinese import competition over 1999–2011 in the range of 2.0–2.4 million.
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“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Acemoglu et al. 2016
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“We isolate the component of growth in US imports from China that is driven by export-supply growth in China, rather than US product-demand shocks, following the identification strategy in Autor et al. (2014) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Acemoglu et al. 2016
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“Although new technologies can boost productivity (69), the gains have often fallen below expectations, especially when the focus has been on replacing work instead of augmenting worker capabilities or developing new ones (11, 70).”
From The impact of generative artificial intelligence on socioeconomic inequalities and policy making (2024) · cites this paper as [70]
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 18
- 1991, we calculate that US manufacturing employment was 17.0 million
- Australia Denmark, 1991, which represent all high-income countries for which we can obtain disaggregated bilateral trade data at the HS level back to
- 2014, ð2013
- 2000, ð1Þ does not exclude the role of global production chains. During the 1990s and
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- Quantitatively, 2011, the specification in col. 2 of table 3 implies that had import penetration from China remained unchanged between 1991 and
- 2009, we employ the NBER-CES data, which cover a longer time horizon than the CBP data used in our main estimates. A disadvantage is that the NBER-CES database is currently updated only through
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Metadata
- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Price, B.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Labor Economics
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2016-01
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- S1
- Pages
- S141-S198
- ISSN
- 0734-306X (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5307
- OpenAlex
- W2162670720
- Cited by
- 1,113
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 141 · 2024: 105 · 2023: 102 · 2022: 110 · 2021: 123 · 2020: 98 · 2019: 136 · 2018: 100 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 28
- FWCI
- 198.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.zora.uzh.ch
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Journal of Labor Economics (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Global Trade and Competitiveness
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Keywords
- import competition, Chinese imports, manufacturing employment, job creation, job loss, input-output linkages, general equilibrium effects, US-China trade, Great Recession
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