A vast range of opportunities for feeding the world in 2050: trade-off between diet, N contamination and international trade
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Through a detailed analysis of the FAO database, we have constructed a generalized representation of the nitrogen transfers characterizing the current agro-food system (GRAFS) of 12 macro-regions of the world in terms of functional relationships between crop farming, livestock breeding and human nutrition. Based on this model, and maintaining the current cropland areas and the performance of cropping and livestock systems in each region, we have assessed the possibilities of meeting the protein requirements of the estimated world population in 2050, according to various combinations of three critical drivers namely human diet (total amount of protein consumed and share of animal protein in this total), regional livestock production and crop fertilization intensity, in each region. The results show that feeding the projected 2050 world population would generally imply higher levels of inter-regional trade and of environmental nitrogen contamination than the current levels, but that the scenarios with less recourse to inter-regional trade generally produce less N losses to the environment. If an equitable human diet (in terms of protein consumption) is to be established globally (the same in all regions of the world), the fraction of animal protein should not exceed 40% of a total ingestion of 4 kgN capita −1 yr −1 , or 25% of a total consumption of 5 kgN capita −1 yr −1 . Our results show that slightly improving the agronomical performance in the most deficient regions (namely Maghreb, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and India) would make it possible not only to meet the global protein requirements with much less international trade (hence more food sovereignty), but also to reduce N environmental contamination the most efficiently.
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A few studies (8) presented alternative indicators, including protein consumption, people at risk of protein deficiency, and recommended daily intake of macronutrients.
“A few studies (n = 8) present alternative indicators, including protein consumption 25,26 , people at risk of protein deficiency 27 and recommended daily intake of macronutrients 26 .”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [25]
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- Authors
- Billen, G., Lassaletta, L., & Garnier, J.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Milieux environnementaux, transferts et interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les sols (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Billen, Gilles
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2015-01-26
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 025001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2069396979
- Cited by
- 100
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 6
- FWCI
- 12.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- French National Research Agency (EMoSEM project (ANR-12-SEAS- 0005-0)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Keywords
- global food security, nitrogen pollution, international food trade, protein requirements, animal protein intake, animal husbandry, food sovereignty, nitrogen loss
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