Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
Open accessAbstract
Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.
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Although agricultural intensification can harm climate, biodiversity, and human health, yields can often be increased without these costs.
“Although agricultural intensification can have detrimental effects on climate, biodiversity and human health 2,[35][36][37][38][39] , yields can often be increased without incurring these costs 37 .”
From Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration (2020) · cites this paper as [39]
The Discussion (page not available) says increased yields can save land and potentially increase carbon storage. It also says those benefits may be offset by agricultural emissions and that the study cannot establish the sustainability of its scenarios. It therefore does not support the claim that yields can often be increased without climate, biodiversity, or human-health costs. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Erb, K.-H., Lauk, C., Kastner, T., Mayer, A., Theurl, M. C., & Haberl, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Klagenfurt (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Erb, Karl-Heinz
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2016-04-19
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 11382-11382
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4838894
- OpenAlex
- W2339350354
- Cited by
- 352
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 17 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 39.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Organic Eprints (International Centre for Research in Organic Food Systems, and Research Institute of Organic Agriculture) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- European Commission (283093)
- Austrian Science Fund (263522, P21012 G11, P 21012)
- FP7 Ideas: European Research Council (263522)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Keywords
- zero deforestation, global food supply, crop yield, grazing intensity, animal feed, human diet, food self-sufficiency, food trade, land use, 2050 scenarios
- MeSH terms
- Crop Production, Animal Husbandry, Conservation of Natural Resources, Food Supply, Forecasting, Humans, Models, Statistical, Biomass, Forests
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