The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
Open accessAbstract
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The text we found for this paper looks like another document, so the self-check wasn’t run.
Cites
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (2007) · Centre for Environmental Data Analysis Digital Repository (Centre for Environmental Data Analysis) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.7356334 · Cited by 9,138 · see citing works
Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108 · Cited by 7,692 · see citing works
Awais, A. (2015) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.17632/zcvgc6m58h.1 · Cited by 6,790 · see citing works
Deaton, A. (1980) · Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) · Cited by 4,172 · see citing works
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revisionPreprint
Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.288998 · Cited by 3,155 · see citing works
Food consumption trends and drivers
Kearney, J. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0149 · Cited by 1,987 · see citing works
Global food losses and food waste
Gustavsson, J. (2011) · Cited by 1,561 · see citing works
Quantitative development policy analysis
Sadoulet, É., & de Janvry, A. (1994) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,072 · see citing works
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Nelson, G., Valin, H., Sands, R., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222465110 · Cited by 836 · see citing works
Self-citationAnatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices
Headey, D., & Fan, S. (2008) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00345.x · Cited by 725 · see citing works
The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression
Green, R., Cornelsen, L., Dangour, A. D., Turner, R., Shankar, B., Mazzocchi, M., & Smith, R. (2013) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.f3703 · Cited by 412 · see citing works
Kelly, A., Becker, W. G., & Helsing, E. (1991) · PubMed · Cited by 404 · see citing works
The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation
Lewbel, A. (1991) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/2938225 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century
Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Weindl, I., Popp, A., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Self-citationAgriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
Nelson, G. C., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, É., Calvin, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlík, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P. G., Lotze‐Campen, H., et al. (2013) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12091 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Self-citationvon Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12086 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citation(2013) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 254 · see citing works
Muhammad, A., Seale, J. L., Meade, B., & Regmi, A. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2114337 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
An implicitly additive demand system
Rimmer, M. T., & Powell, A. A. (1996) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/000368496327589 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Energy, the Environment and US Economic Growth
Jorgenson, D. W., Goettle, R. J., Ho, M. S., & Wilcoxen, P. J. (2013) · Handbook of computable general equilibrium modeling · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-59568-3.00008-0 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems
Yu, W., Hertel, T. W., Preckel, P. V., & Eales, J. S. (2003) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/s0264-9993(02)00086-x · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Lotze‐Campen, H., von Lampe, M., Kyle, P. G., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., van Meijl, H., Hasegawa, T., Popp, A., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., et al. (2013) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12092 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationCranfield, J., Eales, J. S., Hertel, T. W., et al. (2003) · Empirical Economics · doi:10.1007/s001810200135 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
O’Neill, B. C., Carter, T. M., Ebi, K. L., Edmonds, J., Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Kemp-Benedict, E. J., Kriegler, E., Mearns, L. O., Moss, R., Riahi, K., et al. (2012) · HAL · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Bennett, M. K., & Bennett, M. K. (1941) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.142802 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and SupplyPreprint
Sands, R. D., Jones, C., Marshall, E., et al. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.186137 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationThe effects of changing consumption patterns on the costs of emission restrictions
Lahiri, S., Babiker, M., & Eckaus, R. S. (2000) · Cited by 15 · see citing works
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND FUTURE FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNSPreprint
Valin, H., Havlík, P., Mosnier, A., et al. (2010) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.116392 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationEstimating the Resiliency of Zambian Smallholder Farmers: Evidence from a Three-Wave PanelPreprint
Murray, A. G., Mills, B. F., Murray, A. G., et al. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.170234 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Towards a Normalized Economic Mechanism Based on E-services
Ilyin, A. V., Ilyin, V. D., Ilyin, A. V., et al. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.188734 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
IMPLICIT ADDITIVE PREFERENCES: A FURTHER GENERALIZATION OF THE CESPreprint
Preckel, P. V., Cranfield, J., Hertel, T. W., et al. (2005) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.19373 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339 · see citing works
Grubler, A., Wilson, C., Bento, N., Boza-Kiss, B., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Rao, N. D., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., De Stercke, S., et al. (2018) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6 · Cited by 1,178 · see citing works
Self-citationLand-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002 · Cited by 1,070 · see citing works
Self-citationGreenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector
Herrero, M., Henderson, B., Havlík, P., Thornton, P. K., Conant, R. T., Smith, P., Wirsenius, S., Hristov, A. N., Gerber, P., Gill, M., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2925 · Cited by 1,045 · see citing works
Self-citationImpact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition
Smith, M. R., & Myers, S. S. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3 · Cited by 439 · see citing works
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century
Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Weindl, I., Popp, A., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Self-citationvon Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12086 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citationAgricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
Frank, S., Havlík, P., Stehfest, E., van Meijl, H., Witzke, P., Pérez-Domínguez, I., van Dijk, M., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Koopman, J. F. L., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Self-citationKey determinants of global land-use projections
Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., et al. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Self-citationDecreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat
Xie, W., Xiong, W., Pan, J., Ali, T., Cui, Q., Guan, D., Meng, J., Mueller, N. D., Lin, E., & Davis, S. J. (2018) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0263-1 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Billen, G., Aguilera, E., Einarsson, R., Garnier, J., Gingrich, S., Grizzetti, B., Lassaletta, L., Le Noë, J., & Sanz-Cobena, A. (2021) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.05.008 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Billen, G., Lassaletta, L., & Garnier, J. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/025001 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
Robinson, S., van Meijl, H., Willenbockel, D., Valin, H., Fujimori, S., Masui, T., Sands, R., Wise, M., Calvin, K., Havlik, P., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12087 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationA physically-based model of long-term food demand
Bijl, D. L., Bogaart, P. W., Dekker, S. C., Stehfest, E., de Vries, B. J. M., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.003 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Navigating Sustainability Trade-Offs in Global Beef Production
Castonguay, A. C., Polasky, S., H. Holden, M., Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Godde, C., Chang, J., Gerber, J., Witt, G. B., Game, E. T., et al. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-022-01017-0 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Self-citationInvestment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways
Palazzo, A., Valin, H., Batka, M., & Havlík, P. (2019) · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8744 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“Food security We use the demand for crop and livestock products for food as an indicator of the food security needs of a wealthier, growing population (Valin et al., 2014).”
MethodSelf-citation
- Authors
- Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Mason-D'Croz, D., Paltsev, S., Rolinski, S., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., von Lampe, M., & Willenbockel, D.
- Affiliations
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Economic Research Service (US)
- Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESAD); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Viale delle Terme di Caracalla; Roma 00153 Italy
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (AU)
- Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 77 Massachusetts Ave. Cambridge MA 02139-4307 USA
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Schlossplatz 1 2361 Laxenburg Austria
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Environment and Production Technology Division; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); 2033 K St., NW Washington DC 20006-1002 USA
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI); Wageningen University and Research Centre; 2585 DB The Hague Netherlands
- Trade and Agriculture Directorate (TAD); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 France
- University of Sussex (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Agricultural Economics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-12-10
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 51-67
- ISSN
- 0169-5150 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1993769610
- Cited by
- 561
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 64 · 2022: 62 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 78 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 18.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Agricultural Economics (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (25285076)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- food demand projections, global economic model, AgMIP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, income elasticity, price elasticity, animal product consumption, calorie availability, population growth
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
