Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Open accessAbstract
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Landscape-scale changes in vegetation, such as shrubification, affect ecosystems at multiple trophic levels.
“Landscape-scale changes in vegetation (e.g., shrubification), affect ecosystems at multiple trophic levels (Myers-Smith et al. 2011; Mod and Luoto 2016)”
From Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future (2020) · cites this paper as Mod and Luoto 2016
The ‘Variation across landscape’ section reports that shrubification changes predicted plant species richness, turnover, and local extinction risk across the test area. The paper addresses vegetation, but the cited passages do not establish effects at multiple trophic levels. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., & Bairlein, F. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/416389a · Cited by 9,975 · see citing works
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741 · see citing works
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.
Guisan, A., & Thuiller, W. (2005) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x · Cited by 6,844 · see citing works
BEVEN, K. J., & KIRKBY, M. J. (1979) · Hydrological Sciences Bulletin · doi:10.1080/02626667909491834 · Cited by 6,670 · see citing works
Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity
Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2012) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x · Cited by 3,915 · see citing works
Positive interactions in communities
Bertness, M. D., & Callaway, R. M. (1994) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/0169-5347(94)90088-4 · Cited by 3,906 · see citing works
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
ARAUJO, M., & NEW, M. (2007) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010 · Cited by 3,640 · see citing works
Global patterns in biodiversity
Gaston, K. J. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35012228 · Cited by 3,363 · see citing works
The diversity–stability debate
McCann, K. S. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35012234 · Cited by 3,110 · see citing works
Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions (MPB-49)
Peterson, A. T., Soberón, J. M., Pearson, R. G., Anderson, R. P., Martínez‐Meyer, E., Nakamura, M., & Araújo, M. B. (2011) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.23943/princeton/9780691136868.001.0001 · Cited by 1,840 · see citing works
Austin, M. P. (2002) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(02)00205-3 · Cited by 1,810 · see citing works
Facilitation in plant communities: the past, the present, and the future
Brooker, R. W., Maestre, F. T., Callaway, R. M., Lortie, C. J., Cavieres, L. A., Künstler, G., Liancourt, P., Tielbörger, K., Travis, J. M. J., Anthelme, F., et al. (2007) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2007.01295.x · Cited by 1,802 · see citing works
(2010) · Cited by 1,762 · see citing works
Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities
Myers-Smith, I. H., Forbes, B. C., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Lantz, T., Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Macias-Fauria, M., Sass-Klaassen, U., Lévesque, E., et al. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509 · Cited by 1,485 · see citing works
Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35079180 · Cited by 1,349 · see citing works
The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan‐Arctic
Tape, K. D., Sturm, M., & Racine, C. H. (2006) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01128.x · Cited by 1,321 · see citing works
Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome
Walker, M. D., Wahren, C. H., Hollister, R. D., Henry, G. H. R., Ahlquist, L. E., Alatalo, J. M., Bret-Harte, M. S., Calef, M. P., Callaghan, T. V., Carroll, A. B., et al. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0503198103 · Cited by 1,310 · see citing works
Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Futschik, A., Akhalkatsi, M., Barančok, P., Alonso, J. L. B., Coldea, G., Dick, J., Erschbamer, B., Calzado, M. R. F., et al. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1329 · Cited by 1,266 · see citing works
Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change
Post, E., Forchhammer, M. C., Bret-Harte, M. S., Callaghan, T. V., Christensen, T. R., Elberling, B., Fox, A. D., Gilg, O., Hik, D. S., Høye, T. T., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1173113 · Cited by 1,249 · see citing works
Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming
Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L., Lawton, J., Shorrocks, B., & Wood, S. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35842 · Cited by 1,207 · see citing works
Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming
Elmendorf, S. C., Henry, G. H. R., Hollister, R. D., Björk, R. G., Boulanger‐Lapointe, N., Cooper, E. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Day, T. A., Dorrepaal, E., Elumeeva, T. G., et al. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1465 · Cited by 980 · see citing works
Global shifts towards positive species interactions with increasing environmental stress
He, Q., Bertness, M. D., & Altieri, A. H. (2013) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12080 · Cited by 926 · see citing works
Climate Change and the Past, Present, and Future of Biotic Interactions
Blois, J. L., Zarnetske, P. L., Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Finnegan, S. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1237184 · Cited by 856 · see citing works
Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change
Pearson, R., Phillips, S., Loranty, M., Beck, P., Damoulas, T., Knight, S. J., & Goetz, S. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1858 · Cited by 796 · see citing works
Species Interactions Reverse Grassland Responses to Changing Climate
Suttle, K. B., Thomsen, M., & Power, M. E. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1136401 · Cited by 793 · see citing works
Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy
Dormann, C. F., Schymanski, S. J., Cabral, J. S., Chuine, I., Graham, C. H., Hartig, F., Kearney, M., Morin, X., Römermann, C., Schröder, B., et al. (2012) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x · Cited by 750 · see citing works
Novel competitors shape species’ responses to climate change
Alexander, J. M., Diez, J. M., & Levine, J. M. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14952 · Cited by 702 · see citing works
How context dependent are species interactions?
Chamberlain, S., Bronstein, J. L., & Rudgers, J. A. (2014) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12279 · Cited by 674 · see citing works
Michalet, R., Brooker, R. W., Cavieres, L. A., Kikvidze, Z., Lortie, C. J., Pugnaire, F. I., Valiente‐Banuet, A., & Callaway, R. M. (2006) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00935.x · Cited by 638 · see citing works
Plant–plant interactions and environmental change
Brooker, R. W. (2006) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01752.x · Cited by 555 · see citing works
Plant functional types as predictors of transient responses of arctic vegetation to global change
Chapin, F. S., Bret-Harte, M. S., Hobbie, S. E., & Zhong, H. (1996) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.2307/3236278 · Cited by 550 · see citing works
Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions
Dormann, C. F. (2007) · Basic and Applied Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.baae.2006.11.001 · Cited by 487 · see citing works
STRESS TOLERANCE AND COMPETITIVE-RESPONSE ABILITY DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF BIOTIC INTERACTIONS
Liancourt, P., Callaway, R. M., & Michalet, R. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-1398 · Cited by 450 · see citing works
Wookey, P. A., Aerts, R., Bardgett, R. D., Baptist, F., Bråthen, K. A., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Gough, L., Hartley, I. P., HOPKINS, D. W., Lavorel, S., et al. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01801.x · Cited by 434 · see citing works
The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate
Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Hargrove, W. W. (2009) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-009-9584-8 · Cited by 420 · see citing works
van Wijk, M. T., Clemmensen, K. E., Shaver, G. R., Williams, M., Callaghan, T. V., Chapin, F. S., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Gough, L., Hobbie, S. E., Jonasson, S., et al. (2003) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2003.00719.x · Cited by 379 · see citing works
Climate change in the Arctic: using plant functional types in a meta‐analysis of field experiments
Dormann, C. F., & Woodin, S. J. (2002) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.0269-8463.2001.00596.x · Cited by 342 · see citing works
How will biotic interactions influence climate change–induced range shifts?
HilleRisLambers, J., Harsch, M., Ettinger, A., Ford, K. R., & Theobald, E. J. (2013) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.12182 · Cited by 338 · see citing works
Biodiversity, Distributions and Adaptations of Arctic Species in the Context of Environmental Change
Callaghan, T. V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y., Chapin, T., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B. J., Ims, R. A., Johansson, M., Jolly, D., Jonasson, S., et al. (2004) · AMBIO · doi:10.1579/0044-7447-33.7.404 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
What we use is not what we know: environmental predictors in plant distribution models
Mod, H. K., Scherrer, D., Luoto, M., & Guisan, A. (2016) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/jvs.12444 · Cited by 271 · see citing works
Self-citationResponses of a subarctic dwarf shrub heath community to simulated environmental change
Press, M. C., Potter, J. A., Burke, M. J., Callaghan, T. V., & LEE, J. A. (1998) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2745.1998.00261.x · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Klanderud, K., & Totland, Ø. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-1563 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
COMPETITIVE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TREE SPECIES IN NEW ZEALAND'S OLD-GROWTH INDIGENOUS FORESTS
Leathwick, J. R., & Austin, M. P. (2001) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[2560:cibtsi]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 243 · see citing works
Modelled changes in arctic tundra snow, energy and moisture fluxes due to increased shrubs
Liston, G. E., McFadden, J. P., Sturm, M., & Pielke, R. A. (2002) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1354-1013.2001.00416.x · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Dubuis, A., Giovanettina, S., Pellissier, L., Pottier, J., Vittoz, P., & Guisan, A. (2012) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/jvs.12002 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Pomeroy, J. W., Bewley, D., Essery, R., Hedstrom, N., Link, T. E., Granger, R. J., Sicart, J., Ellis, C. R., & Janowicz, J. R. (2006) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.6124 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Weintraub, M. N., & Schimel, J. P. (2005) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0408:ncatso]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate
Bonfils, C., Phillips, T. J., Lawrence, D. M., Cameron-Smith, P. J., Riley, W. J., & Subin, Z. M. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015503 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Arctic alpine vegetation change over 20 years
Wilson, S. D., & Nilsson, C. F. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01896.x · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Zhang, W., Miller, P., Smith, B., Wania, R., Koenigk, T., & Döscher, R. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034023 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Virtanen, R., Luoto, M., Rämä, T., Mikkola, K., Hjort, J., Grytnes, J., & Birks, H. J. B. (2010) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00570.x · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Self-citationLawrence, D. M., & Swenson, S. C. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045504 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Klanderud, K., Vandvik, V., & Goldberg, D. E. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0130205 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Impact of shrub canopies on understorey vegetation in western Eurasian tundra
Pajunen, A., Oksanen, J., & Virtanen, R. (2011) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01285.x · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Dullinger, S., Kleinbauer, I., Pauli, H., GOTTFRIED, M., Brooker, R. W., Nagy, L., Theurillat, J., Holten, J. I., Abdaladze, O., BENITO, J. ‐., et al. (2007) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2007.01288.x · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Virtanen, R., Oksanen, L., Oksanen, T., Cohen, J., Forbes, B. C., Johansen, B. E., Käyhkö, J., Olofsson, J., Pulliainen, J. T., & Tømmervik, H. (2015) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.1837 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Longer growing seasons shift grassland vegetation towards more-productive species
Fridley, J. D., Lynn, J. S., Grime, J. P., & Askew, A. P. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3032 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Harte, J., SALESKA, S. R., & Levy, C. R. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12831 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Zamin, T., & Grogan, P. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034027 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Revealing topoclimatic heterogeneity using meteorological station data
Aalto, J., Riihimäki, H., Meineri, É., Hylander, K., & Luoto, M. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5020 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Self-citationBiotic interactions boost spatial models of species richness
Mod, H. K., le Roux, P. C., Guisan, A., & Luoto, M. (2015) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.01129 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Self-citationInformation on Biotic Interactions Improves Transferability of Distribution Models
Godsoe, W., Murray, R., & Plank, M. J. (2014) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/679440 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Bråthen, K. A., & Lortie, C. J. (2015) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.12458 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Impact of biotic interactions on biodiversity varies across a landscape
Mod, H. K., Heikkinen, R. K., le Roux, P. C., Wisz, M. S., & Luoto, M. (2016) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.12794 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationMod, H. K., Heikkinen, R. K., le Roux, P. C., Väre, H., & Luoto, M. (2015) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-015-1820-y · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Peterson A T et al 2011 Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions (Princeton, USA: Princeton University Press)
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere
Zhang, Y., Piao, S. L., Sun, Y., Rogers, B. M., Li, X., Lian, X., Liu, Z., Chen, A., & Peñuelas, J. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01374-w · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future
Cuyler, C., Rowell, J., Adamczewski, J., Anderson, M., Blake, J., Bretten, T., Brodeur, V., Campbell, M., Checkley, S. L., Cluff, H. D., et al. (2020) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01205-x · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Dwarf Shrubs Impact Tundra Soils: Drier, Colder, and Less Organic Carbon
Kemppinen, J., Niittynen, P., Virkkala, A., Happonen, K., Riihimäki, H., Aalto, J., & Luoto, M. (2021) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-020-00589-2 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, Y., Xue, Y., MacDonald, G. M. S. D., Cox, P. M., & Zhang, Z. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-9-2019 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Different effects of alpine woody plant expansion on domestic and wild ungulates
Espunyes, J., Lurgi, M., Büntgen, U., Bartolomé, J., Calleja, J. A., Gálvez‐Cerón, A., Peñuelas, J., López, B. C., & Serrano, E. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14587 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
The value of hyperspectral UAV imagery in characterizing tundra vegetation
Putkiranta, P., Räsänen, A., Korpelainen, P., Erlandsson, R., Kolari, T. H. M., Pang, Y., Villoslada, M., Wolff, F., Kumpula, T., & Virtanen, T. A. (2024) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2024.114175 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Viitamäki, S., Pessi, I. S., Virkkala, A., Niittynen, P., Kemppinen, J., Eronen‐Rasimus, E., Luoto, M., & Hultman, J. (2022) · FEMS Microbiology Ecology · doi:10.1093/femsec/fiac079 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationBraziunas, K. H., Geres, L. S., Richter, T., Wieland-Glasmann, F., Senf, C., Thom, D., Seibold, S., & Seidl, R. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17121 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Garnello, A., Marchenko, S. S., Nicolsky, D. J., Romanovsky, V. E., Ledman, J., Celis, G., Schädel, C., Luo, Y., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1029/2020jg006218 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Evolutionary history of the Arctic flora
Zhang, J., Li, X., Peng, H., Hai, L., Erst, A. S., Jabbour, F., Ortiz, R. D. C., Xia, F., Soltis, P. S., Soltis, D. E., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39555-6 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Greater topoclimatic control of above‐ versus below‐ground communities
Mod, H. K., Scherrer, D., Cola, V. D., Broennimann, O., Blandenier, Q., Breiner, F. T., Buri, A., Goudet, J., Guex, N., Lara, E., et al. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15330 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationTuomi, M., Utsi, T. A., Yoccoz, N. G., Armstrong, C. W., González, V. T., Hagen, S. B., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Pugnaire, F. I., Shea, K., Wardle, D. A., et al. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01451-2 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Saarela, J. M., Sokoloff, P. C., GILLESPIE, L. J., Bull, R. D., Bennett, B. A., & Ponomarenko, S. (2020) · PhytoKeys · doi:10.3897/phytokeys.141.48810 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Leibovici, D., Bylund, H., Björkman, C., Токаревич, Н. К., Thierfelder, T., Evengård, B., & Quegan, S. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph182010963 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Padalia, H., Datt, I., Pangtey, D., Rana, K., Khuroo, A. A., Nandy, S., Singh, G., Sekar, K. C., Sharma, N., Uniyal, S. K., et al. (2023) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-023-02702-y · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Windirsch, T., Grosse, G., Ulrich, M., Forbes, B. C., Goeckede, M., Wolter, J., Macias‐Fauria, M., Olofsson, J., Zimov, N., & Strauß, J. (2022) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.893478 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
Kruse, S., & Herzschuh, U. (2022) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.75163 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Prewer, E., Vilaça, S. T., Bird, S., Kutz, S. J., Leclerc, L., & Kyle, C. J. (2023) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.10192 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Nagano, K., Hiraiwa, M. K., Ishiwaka, N., Seko, Y., Hashimoto, K., UCHIDA, T., Sánchez‐Bayo, F., & Hayasaka, D. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.230449 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Alpine Shrubification: Juniper Encroachment into Tundra in the Ural Mountains
Grigoriev, A. A., Shalaumova, Y. V., Сергеевич, Б. Д., Erokhina, O. V., Юрисовна, А. С., Moiseev, P., & Camarero, J. J. (2022) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f13122106 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Windirsch, T., Grosse, G., Ulrich, M., Forbes, B. C., Goeckede, M., Wolter, J., Macias‐Fauria, M., Olofsson, J., Zimov, N., & Strauß, J. (2021) · doi:10.5194/bg-2021-227 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Nicholls, E. M., Clark, M. G., & Carey, S. K. (2023) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.14900 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hung, J. K. Y., & Treitz, P. (2020) · Arctic Science · doi:10.1139/as-2019-0029 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Refining predictions of metacommunity dynamics by modeling species non‐independence
Opedal, Ø. H., von Numers, M., Tikhonov, G. N., & Ovaskainen, O. (2020) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.3067 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Luo, D., Liu, J., Chen, F., & Li, S. (2025) · Geoscience Frontiers · doi:10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102122 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Herbivores reduce seedling recruitment in alpine plant communities
Opedal, Ø. H., Nystuen, K. O., Hagen, D., Holien, H., Sørensen, M. V., Lang, S. I., Lindmo, S., Strimbeck, G. R., & GRAAE, B. J. (2021) · Nordic Journal of Botany · doi:10.1111/njb.02989 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Integrated terrain unit mapping on the Beaufort Coastal Plain, North Slope, Alaska, USA
Wells, A. F., Frost, G. V., Macander, M. J., Jorgenson, M. T., Roth, J. E., Davis, W. A., & Pullman, E. R. (2020) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-020-01154-x · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Slentz, A. E., Mckenna, A. M., Kellerman, A. M., Holt, A. D., Burns, A. J., Miller, M., Wagner, S., Tzortziou, M. A., Smith, H., Mannino, A., et al. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1029/2025jg008899 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Grigoriev, A. A., Mikryukov, V. S., Shalaumova, Y. V., Moiseev, P., Vuykhin, S. O., & Camarero, J. J. (2024) · Journal of Forestry Research · doi:10.1007/s11676-024-01745-3 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Invasion alters plant and mycorrhizal communities in an alpine tussock grassland
Moyle, D. M., & Deslippe, J. R. (2024) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-024-05632-w · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Spatio-Temporal Changes in Ecosystem Quality across the Belt and Road Region
Wei, X., Cheng, T., Yang, J. S., Qiao, S., Li, L., Yu, H., Mi, X., Liu, Y., Guo, H. F., Li, J., et al. (2023) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s23187752 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Climates of Tundra and Alpine Biomes
Serreze, M. C. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.12022-6 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Liu, Z., Feng, Y., Cao, X., Peñuelas, J., Descals, A., Yang, D., Cheung, K. K., Liu, S., Lin, Z., Liu, X., et al. (2026) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2026.115300 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Chardon, N. I., Nabe‐Nielsen, J., Assmann, J. J., Jacobsen, I. B. D., Guéguen, M., Normand, S., & Wipf, S. (2022) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13498 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Sagi, N., Cress, A. M., McLaren, J. R., & Koltz, A. M. (2025) · Oikos · doi:10.1002/oik.11529 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The role of mycorrhizal type and plant dominance in regulating nitrogen cycling in Oroarctic soils
Patchett, A., Rütting, L., Rütting, T., Bodé, S., Hallin, S., Juhanson, J., Stange, C. F., Björkman, M. P., Boeckx, P., Rosqvist, G., et al. (2025) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-22-6841-2025 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Schwenkler, R., Herzschuh, U., Farkas, L. Z., Schröder, B., & Lisovski, S. (2025) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.70079 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Wind‐driven seed dispersal differentially promotes seed trapping and retention across alpine plants
Ray, C. A., Troy, S. R., Xie, E., Jenkins, T. M., Belfry, G., Wells, A. W., de Valpine, P., & Blonder, B. W. (2026) · American Journal of Botany · doi:10.1002/ajb2.70151 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Soil fungal responses to warming in polar regions
Misiak, M. (2018) · ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Greening conceals evergreening: contrasting trends for a socio-ecological system in Arctic EuropePreprint
Tuomi, M., Utsi, T. A., Yoccoz, N. G., Armstrong, C. W., González, V. T., Hagen, S. B., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Pugnaire, F. I., Shea, K., Wardle, D. A., et al. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.02.28.482210 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Son, D. (2023) · Journal of Ecology and Environment · doi:10.5141/jee.23.002
Effects of snowmelt on seasonal and interannual vegetation dynamics in the Lena Delta
Игоревна, С. К. (2023) · Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa · doi:10.21046/2070-7401-2023-20-5-205-216
Huettmann, F., Berrios, H. K., & Steiner, M. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-13367-1.00008-9
Culp, J. M., Power, M., Christoffersen, K., Goedkoop, W., Kahilainen, K. K., Rautio, M., Chaguaceda, F., Hébert, M., Moedt, S. M., Antoniades, D., et al. (2026) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-025-02331-5
Fält-Nardmann, J. J. J., Rousi, H., Juutilainen, I., Andersson, T., Marjamäki, B., Itämies, J., Niemelä, P., & Hänninen, J. (2026) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.70088
Mori, A. S., Nishizawa, K., Masumoto, S., Niinemets, Ü., Maire, V., Xu, X., Wong, S.-K., Suzuki, K. F., Bêty, J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., et al. (2026) · Ecological Research · doi:10.1111/1440-1703.70089
- Authors
- Mod, H. K., & Luoto, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Mod, Heidi K
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2016-12-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 124028
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2566931842
- Cited by
- 47
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 1.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
- IRIS (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Suomen Akatemia (1140873, 286950)
- Alfred Kordelinin Sti
- Ella ja Georg Ehrnroothin Sti
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- shrubification, tundra vegetation change, global warming, woody plant expansion, tree cover, vascular plants, species distribution modeling, species richness, species turnover, local extinction risk, Arctic
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
