Cited by 185Climate change impacts on agricultureClimate variability and modelsClimate Change Policy and Economics

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Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

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Gammans, Matthew, Mérel, Pierre, Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel·2017·Environmental Research Letters

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Abstract

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring–summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

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Authors: Gammans, M., Mérel, P., & Ortiz-Bobea, A.
Affiliations: University of California, Davis (US)
Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics (US)
ORCID: Gammans, Matthew
Mérel, Pierre
Venue: Environmental Research Letters
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Published: 2017-05-01
Volume: 12
Issue: 5
Pages: 054007
ISSN: 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c
OpenAlex: W2411760869
Cited by: 185
References: 37
Citations by year: 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 14
FWCI: 9.52
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining (tdm, 4 d)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (vor, 4 d)
Locations: Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords: climate change impacts, cereal yield, wheat yield, barley yield, temperature effects on crop yield, precipitation effects, extreme cold, RCP8.5, agricultural technology trends, France

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Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

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