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Estimating modifiable coronary heart disease risk in multiple regions of the world: the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score
Open accessAbstract
AIMS: Summating risk factor burden is a useful approach in the assessment of cardiovascular risk among apparently healthy individuals. We aimed to derive and validate a new score for myocardial infarction (MI) risk using modifiable risk factors, derived from the INTERHEART case-control study (n = 19 470). METHODS AND RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression was used to create the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score (IHMRS). Internal validation was performed using split-sample methods. External validation was performed in an international prospective cohort study. A risk model including apolipoproteins, smoking, second-hand smoke exposure, hypertension, and diabetes was developed. Addition of further modifiable risk factors did not improve score discrimination in an external cohort. Split-sample validation studies showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve c-statistic of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.72]. The IHMRS was positively associated with incident MI in a large cohort of people at low risk for cardiovascular disease [12% increase in MI risk (95% CI: 8, 16%) with a 1-point increase in score] and showed appropriate discrimination in this cohort (ROC c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.74). Results were consistent across ethnic groups and geographic regions. A non-laboratory-based score is also supplied. CONCLUSIONS: Using multiple modifiable risk factors from the INTERHEART case-control study, we have developed and validated a simple score for MI risk which is applicable to an international population.
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Metadata
- Authors
- McGorrian, C., Yusuf, S., Islam, S., Jung, H., Rangarajan, S., Avezum, A., Prabhakaran, D., Almahmeed, W., Rumboldt, Z., Budaj, A., Dans, A. L., Gerstein, H. C., Teo, K., Anand, S. S., & on behalf of the INTERHEART Investigators
- Venue
- European Heart Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2010-12-22
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 581-589
- ISSN
- 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
- 1522-9645
- OpenAlex
- W2098756497
- Cited by
- 281
- References
- 13
- FWCI
- 6.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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