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Cited by 743Hepatitis B Virus StudiesHepatitis C virus researchCervical Cancer and HPV Research

A mathematical model to estimate global hepatitis B disease burden and vaccination impact.

Goldstein, Susan T, Zhou, Fangjun, Hadler, Stephen C, Bell, Beth P, Mast, Eric E, Margolis, Harold S·2005·International Journal of Epidemiology
DOI 10.1093/ije/dyi206
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available regarding global hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related morbidity and mortality and potential reduction in disease burden from hepatitis B vaccination. METHODS: A model was developed to calculate the age-specific risk of acquiring HBV infection, acute hepatitis B (illness and death), and progression to chronic HBV infection. HBV-related deaths among chronically infected persons were determined from HBV-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality curves, adjusted for background mortality. The effect of hepatitis B vaccination was calculated from vaccine efficacy and vaccination series coverage, with and without administration of the first dose of vaccine within 24 h of birth (i.e. birth dose) to prevent perinatal HBV infection. RESULTS: For the year 2000, the model estimated 620,000 persons died worldwide from HBV-related causes: 580,000 (94%) from chronic infection-related cirrhosis and HCC and 40,000 (6%) from acute hepatitis B. In the surviving birth cohort for the year 2000, the model estimated that without vaccination, 64.8 million would become HBV-infected and 1.4 million would die from HBV-related disease. Infections acquired during the perinatal period, in early childhood (<5 years old), and > or = 5 years of age accounted for 21, 48, and 31% of deaths, respectively. Routine infant hepatitis B vaccination, with 90% coverage and the first dose administered at birth would prevent 84% of global HBV-related deaths. CONCLUSION: Globally, most HBV-related deaths result from the chronic sequelae of infection acquired in the perinatal and early childhood periods. Inclusion of hepatitis B vaccine into national infant immunization programs could prevent >80% of HBV-related deaths.

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Crossref · 10.1093/ije/dyi206

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  • Among persons with chronic HBV infection, the risk for premature death from cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma is 15%-25%.

    “Among persons with chronic HBV infection, the risk for premature death from cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma is 15%–25% (1313).”

    From Sexually Transmitted Infections Treatment Guidelines, 2021 (2021) · cites this paper as [1313]

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Authors
Goldstein, S. T., Zhou, F., Hadler, S. C., Bell, B. P., Mast, E. E., & Margolis, H. S.
Affiliations
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
Corresponding author
Goldstein, Susan T
ORCID
Venue
International Journal of Epidemiology
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2005-10-25
Volume
34
Issue
6
Pages
1329-1339
ISSN
  • 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
  • 1464-3685
DOI
10.1093/ije/dyi206
OpenAlex
W2163274841
Cited by
743
References
60
Citations by year
2026: 11 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 61 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 54 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 57
FWCI
11.47
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Hepatitis B Virus Studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Hepatitis C virus research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Cervical Cancer and HPV Research
Keywords
hepatitis B virus, hepatitis B vaccination, birth dose vaccine, chronic hepatitis B, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver cirrhosis, acute hepatitis B, infant immunization, vaccine impact, global mortality estimates
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Hepatitis B, Carcinoma, Hepatocellular, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Liver Cirrhosis, Liver Neoplasms, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Sensitivity and Specificity, Vaccination, Global Health, Treatment Outcome, Hepatitis B Vaccines, Immunization Programs, Risk Assessment, Hepatitis B, Chronic

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