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Global blue carbon accumulation in tidal wetlands increases with climate change
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Abstract Coastal tidal wetlands produce and accumulate significant amounts of organic carbon (C) that help to mitigate climate change. However, previous data limitations have prevented a robust evaluation of the global rates and mechanisms driving C accumulation. Here, we go beyond recent soil C stock estimates to reveal global tidal wetland C accumulation and predict changes under relative sea level rise, temperature and precipitation. We use data from literature study sites and our new observations spanning wide latitudinal gradients and 20 countries. Globally, tidal wetlands accumulate 53.65 (95%CI: 48.52–59.01) Tg C yr−1, which is ∼30% of the organic C buried on the ocean floor. Modeling based on current climatic drivers and under projected emissions scenarios revealed a net increase in the global C accumulation by 2100. This rapid increase is driven by sea level rise in tidal marshes, and higher temperature and precipitation in mangroves. Countries with large areas of coastal wetlands, like Indonesia and Mexico, are more susceptible to tidal wetland C losses under climate change, while regions such as Australia, Brazil, the USA and China will experience a significant C accumulation increase under all projected scenarios.
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![Figure 3. Projected global change in tidal wetland C sequestration. Results are displayed for moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5) and high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) under the most restricted human adaptation scenario defined by Schuerch et al. [11] (i.e. population density threshold set as 5 people km−2; higher population density than this value would have no lateral accommodation space for tidal wetlands), giving the most conservative predicted increases in the global CARs found in this study. The colored shadings represent the 95% range (2.5%–97.5%) of the projected C distribution in global tidal wetlands. The solid lines denote the median of the distribution.](/paper-figures/4fa27007482546ab817478a52f974133/global-blue-carbon-accumulation-in-tidal-wetlands-increases-with-climate-change-figure-3.jpg)
![Figure 4. The projected 2100 spatial distribution of tidal wetland C sequestration changes. Relative changes in tidal wetland C sequestration are displayed for the RCP4.5 (a and c) and RCP8.5 (b and d) scenarios under two assumed human activity scenarios by Schuerch et al. [11]: inhibition of wetland inland migration in the regions with a population density of over 5 people km−2 (a and b) and over 300 people km−2 (c and d).](/paper-figures/621833b2ad8a46eebefb9dd779d60730/global-blue-carbon-accumulation-in-tidal-wetlands-increases-with-climate-change-figure-4.jpg)
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“Globally, tidal marshes and mangroves capture 196.72 Tg CO2 per year, which is 30% of the organic C deposited on the ocean floor.205”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [205]
In the citing paper
“The C stored in these coastal ecosystems as blue C can be preserved over millennia, together with the continuous accretion of soil and sediment organic C driven by sea-level rise, the C sequestration efficiency in marine ecosystems is much higher than that of terrestrial ecosystems.205,206”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [205]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Wang, F., Sanders, C. J., Santos, I. R., Tang, J., Schuerch, M., Kirwan, M. L., Kopp, R. E., Zhu, K., Li, X., Yuan, J., Liu, W., & Li, Z.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (CN)
- Southern Cross University (AU)
- University of Lincoln (GB)
- William & Mary (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- Xiaoliang Research Station for Tropical Coastal Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and the CAS Engineering Laboratory for Ecological Restoration of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
- Corresponding author
- Wang, Faming
- Sanders, Christian J
- ORCID
- Venue
- National Science Review
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2020-12-15
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- nwaa296-nwaa296
- ISSN
- 2053-714X (ISSN-L)
- 2095-5138
- PMC
- PMC8433083
- OpenAlex
- W3112344741
- Cited by
- 408
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 89 · 2025: 106 · 2024: 80 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 12
- FWCI
- 17.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- National Science Review (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lincoln Repository (University of Lincoln) (acceptedVersion)
- W&M Publish (College of William & Mary) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (31670621, 31870463)
- Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (GML2019ZD0408)
- Guangdong Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars
- CAS Youth Innovation Promotion Association
- National Forestry and Grassland Administration Youth Talent Support Program (2020BJ003)
- R & D program of Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology (2018B030324003)
- I.R.S.
- Australian Research Council (DE160100443, DP150103286, DE140101733, LE140100083)
- NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve Science Collaborative (NA09NOS4190153, NA14NOS4190145)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Keywords
- blue carbon, tidal wetlands, organic carbon accumulation, coastal carbon sequestration, sea level rise, mangroves, tidal marshes, climate change impacts, latitudinal gradient
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