Effect of Risk Factor Values on Lifetime Risk of and Age at First Coronary Event
Abstract
The effect of traditional coronary heart disease risk factors on lifetime risk, age at onset, and survival free of coronary disease has not been extensively studied. The authors have used the cohort data from 27,321 California Seventh-day Adventists who had no known heart disease in 1976 to investigate these questions. Multiple decrement life tables incorporating non-parametric estimates of conditional probabilities for both coronary disease and all other competing endpoints were used to estimate these survival outcomes. Variance estimators are provided in an appendix. Persons characterized by being either past smokers, diabetic, hypertensive, physically, non-vegetarian, or infrequent consumers of nuts often showed substantial differences in these survival outcomes. Statistically significant results include earlier age at onset of coronary disease at between 4 and 10 years, reduced life expectancy free of the disease between 5 and 9 years, and increased lifetime risk between 8% and 16%, when comparing groups with and without adverse values for different risk factors. The presence of adverse levels of two risk factors predicted even greater differences in these endpoints. These important effects are easily understood by the layman or non-epidemiologist professional, which is often not true of a relative risk. This should increase the effectiveness of such results when promoting behavioral change.
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Prior studies have defined plant-based diets as vegetarian diets, which exclude some or all animal foods.
“With the exception of a recent investigation,(3) prior studies(4–9) have defined plant-based diets as ‘vegetarian’ diets, which constitute a family of dietary patterns that exclude some or all animal foods.”
From Healthful and Unhealthful Plant-Based Diets and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in U.S. Adults (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
Plant-based diets have been associated with a lower risk of various diseases, including coronary heart disease.
“Plant-based diets have been associated with a lower risk of various diseases,(1–3) including coronary heart disease (CHD),(4–9) the leading global cause of death.(10)”
From Healthful and Unhealthful Plant-Based Diets and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in U.S. Adults (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
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- Authors
- Fraser, G. E., Lindsted, K. D., & Lawrence Beeson, W.
- Affiliations
- Loma Linda University (US)
- ORCID
- Fraser, Gary E.
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1995-10-01
- Volume
- 142
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 746-758
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- OpenAlex
- W1894557797
- Cited by
- 70
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 1.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG008961, 1 R01 AG08961-01A2)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- coronary artery disease, coronary risk factors, lifetime risk, age of onset, life expectancy, competing risks, multiple decrement life tables, Seventh-day Adventists, smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, physical activity, vegetarian diet, nut consumption, behavior change
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, California, Coronary Disease, Female, Humans, Life Style, Male, Middle Aged, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk Factors, Cohort Studies, Life Tables, Age of Onset, Risk Assessment, Disease-Free Survival, Statistics, Nonparametric
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