Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
Open accessAbstract
Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.
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Several multi-disciplinary consortia have recently attempted to robustly quantify the mortality impacts of climate change.
“Despite these difficulties, several multi-disciplinary consortia have recently attempted to robustly quantify the mortality impacts of climate change.36–38”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The focus on heat and cold mortality reflects its strong empirical grounding and perceived significance, in contrast to pathways through extreme weather events that are more uncertain and to a degree unknowable.
“Their focus on this particular pathway reflects its strong empirical grounding and perceived significance37,38 – in contrast to pathways through extreme weather events that are more uncertain and, to a certain degree, unknowable.40”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The divergence in RCP8.5 projections reflects differences in the studies' assumptions, including the shape of the relationship between mortality risk and temperature and the inclusion of climate models accounting for low-likelihood, extreme climate outcomes.
“This divergence reflects differences in the studies’ assumptions, including the shape of the relationship between mortality risk and temperature37,38 and the inclusion of climate models accounting for low-likelihood, extreme climate outcomes.37”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
Larger effect sizes are observed in poorer, more densely populated, and warmer regions.
“Notably, larger effect sizes are observed in poorer, more densely populated, and warmer regions.37,41”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The primary pathway that recent studies evaluated is the effect of heat on mortality and the benefit from reduced cold-induced mortality.
“The primary pathway that these recent studies evaluated is the effect of heat on mortality and, conversely, the benefit from reduced cold-induced mortality.”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
There is a U-shaped relationship indicating an increased relative risk of mortality at low and high temperatures.
“There is a “U-shaped” relationship, indicating an increased relative risk of mortality at low and high.37,41”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
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Cites
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862 · see citing works
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D. J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., et al. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal4369 · Cited by 1,239 · see citing works
Self-citationTemperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change
Graff Zivin, J., & Neidell, M. (2014) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/671766 · Cited by 1,024 · see citing works
Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model
Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2018jd029522 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
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Self-citationLong-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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Flagged first, then by citations
- Authors
- Carleton, T., Jina, A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., Rising, J., Rode, A., Seo, H. K., Viaene, A., Yuan, J., & Zhang, A. T.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Rhodium Group (United States) (US)
- University of Chicago (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- University of Delaware (US)
- World Bank (US)
- CompetitionSphere , Belgium
- Fudan University (CN)
- Washington and Lee University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2022-04-21
- Volume
- 137
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 2037-2105
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W3149982436
- Cited by
- 18
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1
- FWCI
- 0.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- udspace.udel.edu
- Licence
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- Library, Museums and Press - UDSpace (University of Delaware) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (FP91780401)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- temperature-mortality relationship, adaptation costs, revealed preference, elderly mortality, high-emission scenario, climate uncertainty
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