Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century
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This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85–$185 billion (2012 dollars).
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Air conditioning has been shown to have the most considerable effect on decreasing heatwave mortality in the United States.
“At the same time, air conditioning has been shown to have the most considerable effect on decreasing heatwave mortality in the United States [115].”
From Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area (2022) · cites this paper as [115]
Access to residential air conditioning has likely been responsible for the dramatic decrease in the effect of hot weather on all-cause mortality observed across the 20th century.
“Barreca et al. (2016) find that access to residential air conditioning has likely been responsible for the dramatic decrease in the effect of hot weather on all-cause mortality observed across the 20th century.”
From Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes (2019) · cites this paper as Barreca et al. (2016)
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- Authors
- Barreca, A., Clay, K., Deschenes, O., Greenstone, M., & Shapiro, J. S.
- Affiliations
- Tulane University (US)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2016-02
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 105-159
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W3124416644
- Cited by
- 910
- References
- 80
- Citations by year
- 2026: 100 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 123 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 92 · 2020: 99 · 2019: 59 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 32.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- Locations
- Journal of Political Economy (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Keywords
- temperature-mortality relationship, heat-related mortality, climate change adaptation, residential air conditioning, hot days, consumer surplus, twentieth-century United States
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