The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Managerial Miscalibration*
Abstract
Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives’ 80% confidence intervals only 36% of the time. We show that executives reduce the lower bound of the forecast confidence interval during times of high market uncertainty; however, ex post miscalibration is worst during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that executives who are miscalibrated about the stock market show similar miscalibration regarding their own firms’ prospects. Finally, firms with miscalibrated executives seem to follow more aggressive corporate policies: investing more and using more debt financing.
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Cites
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Cited by
Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, and Future
Thaler, R. H. (2016) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.106.7.1577 · Cited by 799
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2020) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20181219 · Cited by 608
Hirshleifer, D. (2015) · Annual Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-092214-043752 · Cited by 497
CFO Narcissism and Financial Reporting Quality
HAM, C., LANG, M., SEYBERT, N., & WANG, S. (2017) · Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1475-679x.12176 · Cited by 420
Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns
BORDALO, P., GENNAIOLI, N., PORTA, R. L., & SHLEIFER, A. (2019) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12833 · Cited by 396
Metadata
- Authors
- Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-09-28
- Volume
- 128
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1547-1584
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W4244416934
- Cited by
- 759
- References
- 55
- FWCI
- 25.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
