Demographics and automation
Abstract
Abstract We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Other technologies, like industrial robots, have been used to automate repetitive or systematic tasks that are often performed by less-educated workers.
“while others, like industrial robots, have been used to automate repetitive or systematic tasks that are often performed by less-educated workers (65, 66).”
From The impact of generative artificial intelligence on socioeconomic inequalities and policy making (2024) · cites this paper as [66]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355303322552801 · Cited by 6,205 · see citing works
The Next Generation of the Penn World Table
Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. P. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20130954 · Cited by 4,936 · see citing works
The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 · Cited by 4,459 · see citing works
The second machine age: work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies
(2015) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.184834 · Cited by 4,401 · see citing works
Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/705716 · Cited by 4,088 · see citing works
Self-citationThe growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market
Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.5.1553 · Cited by 3,824 · see citing works
Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings
Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011) · Handbook of Labor Economics · doi:10.1016/s0169-7218(11)02410-5 · Cited by 3,799 · see citing works
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20160696 · Cited by 3,121 · see citing works
Self-citationLousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain
Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.89.1.118 · Cited by 2,287 · see citing works
Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality
Acemoğlu, D. (1998) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355398555838 · Cited by 2,065 · see citing works
Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2018) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00754 · Cited by 2,002 · see citing works
Acemoğlu, D. (2002) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1111/1467-937x.00226 · Cited by 1,770 · see citing works
The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Gordon, R. J. (2016) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400873302 · Cited by 1,312 · see citing works
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and WorkPreprint
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3098384 · Cited by 1,178 · see citing works
Self-citationArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018) · doi:10.3386/w24196 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
Self-citationMarket Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry
Acemoğlu, D., & Linn, J. (2004) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/0033553041502144 · Cited by 941 · see citing works
Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years
Michaels, G., Natraj, A., & Reenen, J. M. V. (2013) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00366 · Cited by 906 · see citing works
Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles
Murphy, K., & Welch, F. R. (1990) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/298220 · Cited by 628 · see citing works
Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth
Zeira, J. (1998) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355398555847 · Cited by 570 · see citing works
Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
Acemoğlu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.p20171101 · Cited by 535 · see citing works
Self-citationSecular stagnation: facts, causes and cures
Teulings, C. N., & Baldwin, R. (2014) · UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) · Cited by 474 · see citing works
Immigration, Skill Mix, and Capital Skill Complementarity
Lewis, E. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjr011 · Cited by 423 · see citing works
Demographic Structure and Asset Returns
Poterba, J. M. (2001) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465301753237650 · Cited by 411 · see citing works
When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?
Acemoğlu, D. (2010) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/658160 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France
Acemoğlu, D., Lelarge, C., & Restrepo, P. (2020) · AEA Papers and Proceedings · doi:10.1257/pandp.20201003 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Self-citationU.S. Commuting Zones and Labor Market Areas: A 1990 UpdatePreprint
Tolbert, C. M., & Sizer, M. (1996) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.278812 · Cited by 379 · see citing works
Equilibrium Bias of Technology
Acemoğlu, D. (2007) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00797.x · Cited by 332 · see citing works
Static and Dynamic Effects of Health Policy: Evidence from the Vaccine Industry
Finkelstein, A. N. (2004) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/0033553041382166 · Cited by 323 · see citing works
Krueger, D., & Ludwig, A. (2007) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.016 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion
Clemens, M. A., Lewis, E., & Postel, H. (2018) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20170765 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Racing with or Against the Machine? Evidence from EuropePreprint
Gregory, T., Salomons, A., & Zierahn, U. (2016) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2815469 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
The American Baby Boom in Historical Perspective
Easterlin, R. A. (1962) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 197 · see citing works
How Do Industries and Firms Respond to Changes in Local Labor Supply?
Dustmann, C., & Glitz, A. (2015) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/679684 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Industrial Robotics: Technology, Programming, and Applications
Groover, M. P., Weiss, M., & Nagel, R. N. (1986) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Necessity Is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change
Hanlon, W. W. (2015) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta10811 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Doepke, M., Hazan, M., & Maoz, Y. (2015) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdv010 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Demographic change, human capital and welfare
Ludwig, A., Schelkle, T., & Vogel, E. (2011) · Review of Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.red.2011.07.001 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Frictionless Technology Diffusion: The Case of Tractors
Manuelli, R. E., & Seshadri, A. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.104.4.1368 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Maternal Health and the Baby Boom
Stefania Albanesi, Y., & Claudia Olivetti, Z. (2010) · Quantitative Economics · doi:10.3386/w16146 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market EffectPreprint
Costinot, A., Donaldson, D., Kyle, M., & Williams, H. (2016) · HAL · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Emerging robotic regions in the United States: insights for regional economic evolution
Leigh, N. G., & Kraft, B. R. (2017) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2016.1269158 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Automation and Demographic ChangePreprint
Abeliansky, A. L., & Klaus Prettner, A. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2959977 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Demographic change, human capital accumulation and R&D‐based growth
Hashimoto, K., & Tabata, K. (2016) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/caje.12211 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
The Impacts of Industrial Robots
Ayres, R. U., & Miller, S. (1981) · doi:10.21236/ada126382 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Ayres, R. U., Brautzsch, H.-U., & Mori, S. (1987) · IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- 16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 5 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 6 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 9 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 15 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 16 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 17 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 19 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 21 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 22 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 23 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 24 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 25 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 28 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 29 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 30 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 31 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 33 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 34 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 36 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 37 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 39 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 40 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 41 1-44 [16:38 24/7/2021 OP-REST210033.tex] RESTUD: The Review of Economic Studies Page: 42 1-44 REFERENCES
- REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
Cited by
Sorted by citations
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2023) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2303.10130 · Cited by 545 · see citing works
The impact of generative artificial intelligence on socioeconomic inequalities and policy making
Capraro, V., Lentsch, A., Acemoglu, D., Akgun, S., Akhmedova, A., Bilancini, E., Bonnefon, J.-F., Brañas-Garza, P., Butera, L., Douglas, K. M., et al. (2024) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae191 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Self-citationFertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2024) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4597716 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P.
- Affiliations
- MIT
- Boston University (US)
- Venue
- The Review of Economic Studies
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2021-06-10
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-44
- ISSN
- 0034-6527 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-937X
- OpenAlex
- W3169161674
- Cited by
- 586
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 137 · 2025: 158 · 2024: 99 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 3 · 2016: 1 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 52.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- The Review of Economic Studies (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Keywords
- population aging, industrial automation, robots, middle-aged workers, labor shortage, demographic change, directed technological change, labor share, productivity, commuting zones
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
