The race between man and machine: implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment
Open accessAbstract
We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects. Our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research toward automation and the creation of new tasks. If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks. Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand. Stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor, and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks. In an extension with heterogeneous skills, we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and the introduction of new tasks, and characterize the conditions under which inequality stabilizes in the long run. (JEL D63, E22, E23, E24, J24, O33, O41)
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TL;DR
Acemoglu and Restrepo develop a task-based model in which automation replaces labor in existing tasks while new labor-comparative-advantage tasks are created, showing automation reduces employment and the labor share and may reduce wages, while new tasks have opposite effects. In the full model, unless capital is very cheap relative to labor, the economy tends toward a stable balanced growth path with both automation and new-task creation, though labor market frictions can generate excessive automation.
Key findings
- In the static model, automation reduces employment and the labor share and may even reduce wages; the creation of new tasks raises wages, employment, and the labor share.
- In the dynamic model, if the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks; otherwise there is a stable balanced growth path in which automation and new-task creation advance together. In the long run, automation increases the wage but reduces employment and the labor share.
- Empirically, occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles in 1980 experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015; about 60 percent of the roughly 50 million jobs added over that period are associated with additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles. In 2000, about 70 percent of computer software developers held new job titles.
- With heterogeneous skills, both automation and new tasks increase inequality in the short run, but standardization of new tasks can stabilize inequality in the long run. With labor market frictions, automation can reduce welfare, and the decentralized equilibrium features excessive automation.
Methods
- Theoretical: a static task-based model with fixed capital and exogenous technology, then a dynamic model with endogenous capital accumulation, and a full model that endogenizes the direction of research toward automation and the creation of new tasks via directed technological change; extensions cover heterogeneous skills, creative destruction of profits, and welfare.
- Empirical: uses Lin (2011) data to measure the share of new job titles within occupational categories, with US Census data for 1980, 1990, and 2000 and American Community Survey data for 2015; Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980, with further details in online Appendix B.
- Main analysis: characterizes static equilibrium and comparative statics, derives conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of balanced growth paths, and analyzes long-run comparative statics and the three extensions.
Limitations
- The paper states that the model imposes automation of tasks at the bottom, whereas in reality middle tasks may be automated; it also abstracts from industry-level technological barriers and from the need for workers to acquire new skills, which could bottleneck a rebound in labor demand. It calls for additional empirical evidence on automation’s employment and wage effects and on policy responses.
- Evident from the text: the new-job-title empirical relationship is descriptive/associational rather than causally identified, and the theoretical results rely on specific assumptions such as balanced-growth preferences, the comparative advantage schedule, and a baseline patent structure without creative destruction.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 8 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingcitation§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015.
“Figure 1 shows that occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles (which is approximately the sample average in 1980) experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin (2011)
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingnone given§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks.
“If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- Findingcitation§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
During the last 35 years, new tasks and new job titles have accounted for a large fraction of US employment growth.
“Indeed, during the last 35 years, new tasks and new job titles have accounted for a large fraction of US employment growth.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin (2011)
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
In the dynamic model with endogenous capital accumulation, capital accumulation responds to permanent shifts in technology to keep the interest rate and rental rate of capital constant.
“A critical difference from our static model is that capital accumulation responds to permanent shifts in technology in order to keep the interest rate and hence the rental rate of capital constant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
About 60 percent of the 50 million or so jobs added during 1980-2015 are associated with additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles relative to occupations with no new job titles.
“This estimate implies that about 60 percent of the 50 million or so jobs added during this 35-year period are associated with the additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles (relative to occupations with no new job titles).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin (2011)
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingnone given§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
In an extension with heterogeneous skills, inequality increases during transitions driven by faster automation and by introduction of new tasks.
“In an extension with heterogeneous skills, we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and the introduction of new tasks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
- Findingcitation§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
In 2000, about 70 percent of computer software developers held new job titles.
“In 2000, about 70 percent of computer software developers (an occupational category employing one million people at the time) held new job titles.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin (2011)
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
In the dynamic model, productivity gains from both automation and introduction of new tasks fully accrue to labor.
“The response of capital ensures that the productivity gains from both automation and the introduction of new tasks fully accrue to labor (the relatively inelastic factor).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
The paper's framework provides a more robust economic force ensuring stability of the balanced growth path than models with factor-augmenting technologies, because it does not require an elasticity of substitution between capital and labor less than 1.
“In addition, our framework provides a more robust economic force ensuring the stability of the balanced growth path: while in models with factor-augmenting technologies stability requires an elasticity of substitution between capital and labor that is less than 1 (so that the more abundant factor commands a lower share of national income), we do not need such a condition in this framework.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Under natural assumptions, the interior balanced growth path is stable.
“Under natural assumptions, this (interior) balanced growth path is stable”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static Model
In the static model, a static equilibrium exists and is unique.
“PROPOSITION 1 (Equilibrium in the Static Model): Suppose that Assumptions 1, 2, and 3 hold.Then a static equilibrium exists and is unique.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
- Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Otherwise, the long-run equilibrium involves balanced growth based on equal advancement of automation and creation of new tasks.
“Otherwise, the long-run equilibrium involves balanced growth based on equal advancement of the two types of technologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
If automation surges due to random arrival of a series of automation technologies, the long-run equilibrium returns to the same initial levels of employment and labor share.
“If this is caused by the random arrival of a series of automation technologies, the long-run equilibrium takes us back to the same initial levels of employment and labor share.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static Model
An increase in I (improvement in automation technology) reduces W/R, the labor share, and employment, unless I* = ~I < I and firms are not constrained by technology in their automation choice.
“An increase in I (an improvement in automation technology) reduces W/R , the labor share, and employment (unless I * = ~ I < I and firms are not constrained by technology in their automation choice).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
- Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Over the long run, standardization of new tasks helps low-skill workers.
“Over the long run, the standardization of new tasks help low-skill workers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
- Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static Model
There exists K_tilde < ∞ such that an increase in I increases the equilibrium wage when K > K_tilde and reduces it when K < K_tilde.
“In particular, there exists ˜ K < ∞ such that an increase in I increases the equilibrium wage when K > ˜ K and reduces it when K < ˜ K .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
- Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
In the model, automation always reduces the wage-rental rate ratio W/R.
“and it always reduces the labor share and the wage-rental rate ratio, W/R .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
An increase in N always raises productivity.
“Proposition 3 shows that an increase in N always raises productivity and the equilibrium wage”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
In the full automation BGP (case i), n*(t)=0 (all tasks are produced with capital) and the labor share is zero.
“In this BGP, n * (t) = 0 (all tasks are produced with capital), and the labor share is zero.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
When I* = I < ~I, an increase in I (automation) always increases aggregate output.
“when I * = I < ~ I , automationan increase in I -always increases aggregate output, but has an ambiguous effect on the equilibrium wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
When I* = I < ~I, an increase in I (automation) has an ambiguous effect on the equilibrium wage.
“when I * = I < ~ I , automationan increase in I -always increases aggregate output, but has an ambiguous effect on the equilibrium wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
The economy admits a BGP with positive growth if and only if one of four cases holds: full automation, interior BGP with immediate automation, interior BGP with eventual automation, or no automation.
“The economy admits a BGP with positive growth if only if we are in one of the following cases:”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
In the interior BGP with immediate automation (case ii), n*(t)=n and I*(t)=I(t).
“In this BGP, n * (t) = n and I * (t) = I(t) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
In the model, automation always reduces the labor share.
“and it always reduces the labor share and the wage-rental rate ratio, W/R .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
In the no automation BGP (case iv), n*(t)=1 (all tasks are produced with labor) and the capital share is zero.
“In this BGP, n * (t) = 1 (all tasks are produced with labor), and the capital share is zero.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
When productivity gains from creation of new tasks are small, an increase in N can reduce the rental rate of capital.
“When the productivity gains from the creation of new tasks are small, it can reduce the rental rate of capital as well.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
An increase in N always raises the equilibrium wage.
“Proposition 3 shows that an increase in N always raises productivity and the equilibrium wage”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
A BGP with no automation, where growth is driven entirely by creation of new tasks, is possible if the discount rate is sufficiently large.
“A BGP with no automation (case (iv)), where growth is driven entirely by the creation of new tasks, is also possible if the discount rate is sufficiently large.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
The first type of BGP involves automation of all tasks, in which case aggregate output becomes linear in capital.
“The first type of BGP in Proposition 4 involves the automation of all tasks, in which case aggregate output becomes linear in capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
When K < ~K, the overall impact of automation on wages is negative.
“In this case, the overall impact of automation on wages is negative.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
If σ̂ < 1, capital accumulation mitigates the short-run decline in the labor share but does not fully offset it.
“If ˆ σ < 1 , the resulting capital accumulation mitigates the short-run decline in the labor share but does not fully offset it”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
If κ_I v_I(n) ≠ κ_N v_N(n), the economy converges to a corner with n(t) equal to 0 or 1.
“Thus, if κ I v I (n) ≠ κ N v N (n) , the economy converges to a corner with n(t) equal to 0 or 1”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
In case (ii), the two types of technologies need to advance at exactly the same rate so that n(t)=n.
“In the more interesting case where automated tasks are immediately produced with capital (case (ii)), the proposition also highlights that this process needs to be”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ B. Long-Run Comparative Statics
If an increase in n is caused by an increase in I, the capital stock also increases.
“Finally, if the increase in n is caused by an increase in I , the capital stock also increases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
In the long run, capital per worker increases to keep the rental rate constant at ρ+δ+θg.
“This is because in the long run capital per worker increases to keep the rental rate constant at ρ + δ + θg .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
If σ̂ > 1, capital accumulation further depresses the labor share, even though it raises the wage.
“If ˆ σ > 1 , capital accumulation further depresses the labor share, even though it raises the wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Long-Run Comparative Statics
For n > _n(ρ), asymptotic values for employment and the labor share are increasing in n.
“Moreover, the asymptotic values for employment and the labor share are increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
An increase in κI/κN shifts the intersection of the curves κI vI(n) and κN v(n) to the left, leading to a lower value of n in the BGP.
“an increase in κ I / κ N shifts the intersection of the curves κ I v I (n) and κ N v(n) to the left as shown by the blue dotted curve in Figure 8, leading to a lower value of n in the BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
For S small, normalized value functions can be written as v_I(n)=b((ρ+δ+θg)^{ζ-σ̂}-w_I(n)^{ζ-σ̂})/(ρ+(θ-1)g) and v_N(n)=b(w_N(n)^{ζ-σ̂}-(ρ+δ+θg)^{ζ-σ̂})/(ρ+(θ-1)g).
“Lemma A3 shows that, for S small, the normalized value functions can be written as v I (n) = b ( ( ρ + δ + θg) ζ-ˆ σ -w I (n) ζ-ˆ σ ) _____________________ ρ + (θ -1)g , v N (n) = b ( w N (n) ζ-ˆ σ -( ρ + δ + θg) ζ-ˆ σ ) _____________________ ρ + (θ -1)g .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
When ρ > _ρ, at n=0 (or any n≤n̅(ρ)), κ_I v_I(n) is strictly below κ_N v_N(n), so a full automation BGP is not possible.
“Panel B illustrates the remaining three types of BGPs, which apply when ρ > _ ρ .In this case, at n = 0 (or at any n ≤ n ̅ ( ρ) ), κ I v I (n) is strictly below κ N v N (n) and thus a full automation BGP is not possible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
Under ρ > ρbar and κI/κN > κbar, a one-time permanent increase in κI/κN leads to a BGP with lower n, employment, and labor share.
“COROLLARY 2: Suppose that ρ > _ ρ and κ I / κ N > _ κ .A one-time permanent increase in κ I / κ N leads to a BGP with lower n , employment and labor share.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
The endogenous value of n in an interior BGP satisfies κI ι(n) vI^CD(n) = κN vN^CD(n).
“The endogenous value of n in an interior BGP satisfies κ I ι(n) v I CD (n) = κ N v N CD (n) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ A. Automation, New Tasks, and Inequality
Occupations with more new job titles in 1980, 1990, and 2000 employed workers with greater average years of schooling.
“Figure 9 shows that occupations with more new job titles in 1980, 1990, and 2000 employed workers with greater average years of schooling.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :
Under Assumptions 1′′ and 2, exogenous technology with Ndot=Idot=Δ and n(t)=n > max{nbar(ρ), ntilde(ρ)} and A_H(1-θ)Δ < ρ, there exists a unique BGP.
“Suppose Assumptions 1″ and 2 hold.Suppose also that technology evolves exogenously with N ˙ = I ˙ = Δ and n(t) = n > max{ _ n ( ρ), ~ n ( ρ)} (and A H (1 -θ )Δ < ρ ).Then, there exists a unique BGP.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
Under ρ > ρbar, Assumptions 1′, 2, and 4, and creative destruction, if ι(0) < ι_ and ι(1) > ιbar, then there is at least one locally stable interior BGP with n(t)=n ∈ (nbar(ρ),1).
“There exist _ ι and ι _ < _ ι such that if ι (0) < ι _ and ι (1) > _ ι , then there is at least one locally stable interior BGP with n(t ) = n ∈ ( _ n ( ρ), 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ C. Welfare
In the static model with exogenous technology, both types of technological improvements increase welfare when the labor market has no frictions.
“The first part of the proposition shows that both types of technological improvements increase welfare when the labor market has no frictions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
Under the same conditions, if ι(n) is constant, there is no stable interior BGP with n(t)=n ∈ (nbar(ρ),1).
“If ι (n) is constant, there is no stable interior BGP (with n(t ) = n ∈ ( _ n ( ρ), 1) ).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
For all n < _n(ρ), w_I(n) < ρ+δ+θg.
“On the other hand, for all n < _ n ( ρ ) , we have w I (n ) < ρ + δ + θg .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
For all n < ~n(ρ), w_N(n) > ρ+δ+θg.
“On the other hand, for all n < ~ n ( ρ ) , we have w N (n) > ρ + δ + θg .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
In the region ρ > ρ_max, as n decreases, w_I(n) decreases.
“The expressions for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (n) show that in this region, as n decreases, so does w I (n) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
~n(ρ) is decreasing in ρ.
“Differentiating this expression with respect to ρ shows that ~ n (ρ) is decreasing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
_n(ρ) is increasing in ρ on [_ρ, ρ_max].
“Differentiating this expression with respect to ρ shows that _ n (ρ) is increasing in ρ on [ _ ρ , ρ max ] .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
In the region ρ < ρ_min, as n decreases, both w_I(n), w_N(n) increase.
“The expressions for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (N) show that, in this region, as n decreases, both w I (n) , w N (n) increase.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
In BGP, n*(t)=n, i.e., labor and capital must perform constant shares of tasks.
“Because in BGP the rental rate of capital, R(t) , and the capital to aggregate output ratio, K(t)/Y(t) , are constant, we must have n * (t ) = n , or in other words, labor and capital must perform constant shares of tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
For n = _n(ρ), w_I(~n(ρ)) = ρ+δ+θg > w_N(~n(ρ)).
“For n = _ n (ρ) , we have w I ( ~ n ( ρ )) = ρ + δ + θg > w N ( ~ n ( ρ ))”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:
Under Assumptions 1′ and 2′, for a path with n(t)→n and g(t)→g, consumption grows at rate g and Euler equation holds, there exist ρmin < ρbar < ρmax such that if ρ ∈ [ρmin, ρbar], there is a decreasing function n~(ρ) with the stated properties.
“LEMMA A2 (Derivation of Figure 4): Suppose that Assumptions 1′ and 2′ hold.Consider a path of technology where n(t ) → n and g(t ) → g , consumption grows at the rate g and the Euler equation (17) holds.Then, there exist ρ min < _ ρ < ρ max such that:”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF:
_ρ < ρ_max.
“Because the function 1 _ 1 -σ c u (x) 1-σ is increasing, we have _ ρ < ρ max .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Consequently, growth rate of aggregate output is AΔ.
“Consequently, the growth rate of aggregate output is AΔ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Under Assumption 2, A_K = B.
“Under Assumption 2, this last expression further simplifies to A K = B as claimed in the text.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Transversality condition (19) is satisfied iff A_K - δ > (A_K - δ - ρ)/θ or r > g.
“The transversality condition, (19), is satisfied if and only if A K -δ > A K -δ -ρ ______ θ -or r > g .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
When Assumption 2 holds, F(k,L;n) is given by CES aggregate in equation (16).
“(When Assumption 2 holds, F(k, L; n) is given by the CES aggregate in equation ( 16)).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Positive growth imposes A_K > δ + ρ.
“Moreover, positive growth imposes A K > δ + ρ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Transversality condition (19) is satisfied given ρ+(θ-1)AΔ>0.
“Finally, the transversality condition, (19), is satisfied given the condition ρ + (θ -1 ) AΔ > 0 in this part of the proposition.”
- Also stated in: § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not · plain
“Finally, the transversality condition, (19), is satisfied in view of the fact that this part of the proposition imposes ρ + (θ -1) AΔ > 0 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not · plain
- Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Hence, only possible BGP is one with k(t)=k_B, c(t)=c_B, L(t)=L_B>0.
“Hence, the only possible BGP is one in which k(t) = k B , c(t) = c B , and L(t) = L B > 0 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
c_B is uniquely determined from resource constraint as c_B = (F(φ,1;n)-(δ+g)φ)L_B e^{ν(L_B)(1-θ)/θ}.
“Finally, c B is uniquely determined from the resource constraint, (20), as c B = (F(ϕ, 1; n) -(δ + g )ϕ) L B e ν ( L B ) 1-θ _ θ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Along this path all tasks produced with capital, implying V_I(t)=V_N(t)=0.
“Moreover, along this path all tasks are produced with capital, which implies that V I (t ) = V N (t ) = 0 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Lemma B1 shows for n > max{_n(ρ), ñ(ρ)}, F(φ,1;n) satisfies Inada conditions, ensuring φ well defined.
“Lemma B1 in online Appendix B shows that, for n > max { _ n (ρ), n ̃ (ρ)} , F(ϕ, 1; n) satisfies the following Inada conditions, lim ϕ→0 F K (ϕ, 1; n ) > ρ + δ + θg, lim ϕ→∞ F K (ϕ, 1; n) < ρ + δ + θg, which ensure that ϕ is well defined.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Thus, path with n(t)=0 is consistent with equilibrium allocation of scientists.
“Thus, a path for technology in which n(t ) = 0 is consistent with the equilibrium allocation of scientists.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not
Global stability follows: starting with any positive capital stock, household chooses zero investment and converges to this path.
“Its global stability follows by noting that starting with any positive capital stock, K(0) > 0 the representative household chooses zero investment and converges to this path.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
No interior BGP exists with n∈(0,~n(ρ)).
“No interior BGP exists with n ∈ (0, ~ n ( ρ )) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Resulting BGP is equilibrium with endogenous technology.
“The resulting BGP is an equilibrium with endogenous technology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not
To generate constant wage, output and capital growth, Ṅ(t)=Δ, with ρ+(θ-1)Δ>0.
“Thus, to generate a constant wage, aggregate output and capital growth, we must have N ˙ (t) = Δ , with ρ + (θ -1)Δ > 0 (where the last condition again ensures transversality).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not
Labor supply condition implies ν'(L(t))=w_B γ(N(t)-1)/C(t)=1/L(t), uniquely defining BGP employment L_B.
“The representative household's labor supply condition, (18), implies that in this BGP ν ′(L(t)) = w B γ(N(t) -1) ___________ C(t) = 1 _ L(t) , which uniquely defines a BGP employment level L B .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
Combining labor supply condition and resource constraint yields equation (F(φ,1;n)-(δ+g)φ)L_B = F_L(φ,1)/ν'(L_B).
“Combining the labor supply condition, (18), with the resource constraint, (20), we obtain (F(ϕ, 1; n ) -(δ + g )ϕ) L B = F L (ϕ, 1) _____ ν ′ ( L B ) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ D. Proofs from Section IV
There exists threshold ~S such that for S<~S, ρ+(θ-1)g>0.
“Then there exists a threshold ~ S such that for S < ~ S , we have ρ + (θ -1)g > 0 , and:”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:
There cannot be any BGP with L_B=0, since this would imply c_B=0.
“Note also that there cannot be any BGP with L B = 0 , since this would imply c B = 0 from the resource constraint, (20).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Proposition 4 shows for ρ<_ρ, path with n(t)=0 yields balanced growth.
“Proposition 4 shows that for ρ < _ ρ , a path for technology with n(t ) = 0 yields balanced growth.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Thus, only possible BGP in this region must be n(t)=0.
“Thus, the only possible BGP in this region must be one with n(t ) = 0 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not
R(t) constant implies W(t)/γ(I*(t)) constant.
“Moreover, because R(t) is constant, the ideal price index condition, (A5), implies that W(t)/γ( I * (t)) must be constant too.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ D. Proofs from Section IV
If n ≥ max{_n, ~n}, both v_N(n) and v_I(n) are positive and increasing in n.
“• If n ≥ max { _ n , ~ n } , both v N (n) and v I (n) are positive and increasing in n ;”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
BGP is globally saddle-path stable.
“We now analyze the stability properties of the system and show that the BGP is globally saddle-path stable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Lemma A3 shows at _n, κ_N v_N(_n) is above κ_I v_I(_n).
“Lemma A3 shows that at Because θ = 0 , we also have R = ρ + δ , and capital adjusts immediately and its equilibrium stock only depends on n , which becomes the unique state variable of the model. _ n , κ N v N ( _ n ) is above κ I v I ( _ n ) ,”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
When g=0, locus for v̇=0 crosses zero from below at unique point.
“When g = 0 , the locus for v ˙ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point (recall that we are in the parameter region where there is a unique BGP).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Locus for v̇=0 crosses v=0 at n_B from below only once.
“The locus for v ̇ = 0 crosses v = 0 at n B from below only once.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Each interior BGP corresponds to solution to this equation in (_n(ρ),1).
“Consequently, each interior BGP corresponds to a solution to this equation in ( _ n ( ρ ), 1) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
By continuity there exists threshold S ̆ such that for S<S ̆, locus for v̇=0 crosses zero from below at unique point n_B, BGP value for n(t) from (29).
“By continuity there exists a threshold S ˘ such that, for S < S ˘ , the locus for v ̇ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point n B , which denotes the BGP value for n(t) derived from (29).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
Necessary and sufficient condition for interior BGP is (29).
“Thus, a necessary and sufficient condition for an interior BGP is (29) in the text.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:
If n(t)>_n(ρ), Proposition 4 shows economy admits BGP only if n(t)=n.
“Suppose, instead, that n(t) > _ n ( ρ ) .Then, Proposition 4 shows that the economy admits a BGP only if n(t) = n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Stability of the balanced growth path is a consequence of automation reducing the cost of producing with labor, which discourages further automation and encourages creation of new tasks.
“Stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor, and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
If labor's comparative advantage in new tasks is significant and creation of new tasks continues, employment and labor share can remain stable in the long run even with rapid automation.
“If this comparative advantage is significant and the creation of new tasks continues, employment and the labor share can remain stable in the long run even in the face of rapid automation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
Periods in which automation runs ahead of creation of new tasks tend to trigger self-correcting forces, and as a result, labor share and employment stabilize and could return to initial levels.
“The stability of the balanced growth path implies that periods in which automation runs ahead of the creation of new tasks tend to trigger self-correcting forces, and as a result, the labor share and employment stabilize and could return to their initial levels.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
When automation runs ahead of creation of new tasks, market forces induce a slowdown in subsequent automation and more rapid countervailing advances in creation of new tasks.
“so that when automation runs ahead of the creation of new tasks, market forces induce a slowdown in subsequent automation and more rapid countervailing advances in the creation of new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static Model
The reason automation reduces employment (when I* = I < ~I) is that it raises aggregate output per worker more than it raises wages.
“The reason why automation reduces employment (when I * = I < ~ I ) is that it raises aggregate output per worker more than it raises wages”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static Model
The creation of new tasks always increases employment because new tasks raise wages more than aggregate output, increasing labor supply.
“On the other hand, the creation of new tasks always increases employment: new tasks raise wages more than aggregate output, increasing the labor supply.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
In neither case does rapid automation necessarily bring about the demise of labor.
“In neither case does rapid automation necessarily bring about the demise of labor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*
The comparative statics of automation and new tasks follow because factor prices are determined by the range of tasks performed by capital and labor, and shifts in technology alter the range of tasks performed by each factor.
“These comparative statics follow because factor prices are determined by the range of tasks performed by capital and labor, and shifts in technology alter the range of tasks performed by each factor”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
Capital-augmenting technological improvements always increase the equilibrium wage.
“Also, capital-augmenting technological improvements always increase the equilibrium wage”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018)
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
Automation has a positive productivity effect: by substituting cheaper capital for expensive labor, it raises productivity and hence demand for labor in tasks not yet automated.
“there is a positive productivity effect captured by the term d ln Y | K, L : by substituting cheaper capital for expensive labor, automation raises productivity, and hence the demand for labor in the tasks that are not yet automated.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
The effects of labor- or capital-augmenting technology on the labor share and the wage-rental rate ratio depend on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.
“The effects of labor-or capital-augmenting technology on the labor share and the wage-rental rate ratio depend on the elasticity of substitution (between capital and labor).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018)
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
Automation has a negative displacement effect because it contracts the set of tasks performed by labor.
“there is a negative displacement effect captured by the term 1 _____ ˆ σ + ε L Λ I .This negative effect occurs because automation contracts the set of tasks performed by labor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
Because tasks are subject to diminishing returns in aggregate production, bunching workers into fewer tasks puts downward pressure on the wage.
“Because tasks are subject to diminishing returns in the aggregate production function, (1), bunching workers into fewer tasks puts downward pressure on the wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.
Labor-augmenting technological improvements increase the equilibrium wage provided that the elasticity of substitution is greater than the share of capital in national income.
“and labor-augmenting ones also do so provided that the elasticity of substitution is greater than the share of capital in national income.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF:
Productivity gains accrue to the scarce factor, labor.
“This implies that productivity gains accrue to the scarce factor, labor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF:
In contrast to concerns that highly productive automation technologies will reduce wage and employment, the model shows that it is precisely when automation fails to raise productivity significantly that it has a more detrimental impact on wages and employment.
“In contrast to the concerns that highly productive automation technologies will reduce the wage and employment, our model shows that it is precisely when automation fails to raise productivity significantly that it has a more detrimental impact on wages and employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ PROOF:
The recent decline in the labor share and employment-to-population ratio in the United States can be interpreted as a consequence of automation outpacing the creation of new labor-intensive tasks.
“In light of these results, the recent decline in the labor share and the employment to population ratio in the United States can be interpreted as a consequence of automation outpacing the creation of new labor-intensive tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
When n(t)=n, technology becomes purely labor-augmenting on net because labor performs a fixed share of tasks and labor becomes more productive over time in producing newly-created tasks.
“When n(t) = n , technology becomes purely labor-augmenting on net because labor performs a fixed share of tasks and labor becomes more productive over time in producing the newly-created tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
The system of differential equations comprising the Euler equation and the resource constraint is identical to that of the neoclassical growth model with labor-augmenting technological change and endogenous labor supply.
“This system of differential equations determines the structure of the dynamic equilibrium and is identical to that of the neoclassical growth model with labor-augmenting technological change and endogenous labor supply”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ A. Endogenous and Directed Technological Change
These profits generate incentives for creating new tasks and automation technologies.
“These profits generate incentives for creating new tasks and automation technologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ A. Balanced Growth
Balanced growth with constant labor share emerges because the net effect of automation and creation of new technologies proceeding at the same rate is to augment labor while keeping constant the share of tasks performed by labor.
“Balanced growth with constant labor share emerges in this model because the net effect of automation and the creation of new technologies proceeding at the same rate is to augment labor while keeping constant the share of tasks performed by labor”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
If a change in the innovation possibilities frontier in the κs makes it permanently easier to develop new automation technologies, self-correcting forces still operate but move the economy to a new BGP with lower employment and a lower labor share.
“if there is a change in the innovation possibilities frontier (in the κ s) that makes it permanently easier to develop new automation technologies, self-correcting forces still operate but will now only move the economy to a new BGP with lower employment and a lower labor share.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The adjustment process following an increase in κI/κN involves the labor share and employment declining over time, but ultimately settling to their new interior BGP values.
“This triggers an adjustment process in which the labor share and employment decline over time, but ultimately settle to their new (interior) BGP values.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Following a shock that reduces n, an adjustment process restores the level of employment and the labor share back to their initial values.
“Following such a change, there will be an adjustment process restoring the level of employment and the labor share back to their initial values.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Technological shocks that reduce n, such as the arrival of a series of new automation technologies, set in motion self-correcting forces.
“An important consequence of this stability is that technological shocks that reduce n (e.g., the arrival of a series of new automation technologies) will set in motion self-correcting forces.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
In the full automation BGP, labor becomes redundant.
“Reminiscent of Leontief's”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Economic growth in the full automation BGP is driven by capital accumulation because when all tasks are automated, aggregate output is linear in capital.
“Economic growth in this BGP is driven by capital accumulation (because when all tasks are automated, aggregate output is linear in capital).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Not all shocks leave the long-run prospects of labor unchanged.
“This does not, however, imply that all shocks will leave the long-run prospects of labor unchanged.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
If new tasks generate larger productivity gains than automation, the transition process following an increase in κI/κN will also be associated with a slowdown in productivity growth because automation crowds out resources that could be used to develop new tasks.
“if new tasks generate larger productivity gains than automation, this transition process will also be associated with a slowdown in productivity growth because automation crowds out resources that could be used to develop new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
In the presence of labor market frictions, because workers are constrained in their labor supply choices, the lower employment that results from automation has a first-order negative effect on their welfare.
“But now, because workers are constrained in their labor supply choices, the lower employment that results from automation has a first-order negative effect on their welfare.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
When labor market frictions are present and the direction of technological change is endogenized, there will be a force toward excessive automation.
“when labor market frictions are present and the direction of technological change is endogenized, there will be a force toward excessive automation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
In the presence of labor market frictions, new tasks increase welfare even more than before, because they not only raise productivity but also expand employment, and the increase in labor supply has a welfare benefit for workers who were previously constrained.
“Interestingly, in this case new tasks increase welfare even more than before, because they not only raise productivity but also expand employment, and by the same logic, the increase in labor supply has a welfare benefit for the workers (since they were previously constrained in their employment).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
In the baseline model, the key force ensuring stability is that incentives to automate are shaped by the cost difference between producing a task with capital or with labor: by lowering the effective wage at the next tasks to be automated, current automation reduces the incremental value of additional automation.
“In our baseline model, the key force ensuring stability is that incentives to automate are shaped by the cost difference between producing a task with capital or with labor : by lowering the effective wage at the next tasks to be automated, current automation reduces the incremental value of additional automation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
When the labor market is fully competitive, automation increases overall welfare.
“Consequently, automation increases overall welfare.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
If ι(n) were constant, the intersection between the curves κN vN^CD(n) and κI ι(n) vI^CD(n) would correspond to an unstable BGP.
“These observations imply that, if ι(n) were constant, the intersection between the curves κ N v N CD (n) and κ I ι(n) v I CD (n) would correspond to an unstable BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
Although similar to the efficient allocation of scientists in this regard, the decentralized equilibrium is typically inefficient because technology monopolists neither capture the full benefits from the new tasks they create nor internalize how their innovation affects other existing and future technology monopolists.
“Although similar to the efficient allocation of scientists in this regard, the decentralized equilibrium is typically inefficient because the technology monopolists neither capture the full benefits from the new tasks they create nor internalize how their innovation affects other existing and future technology monopolists.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
This force is absent when innovators destroy the profits of previous technology monopolists because they no longer care about the cost of production with the technology that they are replacing.
“This force is absent when innovators destroy the profits of previous technology monopolists because they no longer care about the cost of production with the technology that they are replacing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
Conversely, as the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to labor increases, the opposite result obtains.
“Conversely, as the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to labor increases, the opposite result obtains.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
In the presence of labor market frictions, automation can reduce welfare if the productivity gains are not sufficiently large to compensate for the negative employment term.
“Consequently, automation can reduce welfare if the productivity gains, captured by the first term, are not sufficiently large to compensate for the second, negative term.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
When the long-run rental rate of capital is not so low relative to labor, our framework generates a BGP in which both types of innovation go hand-in-hand.
“However, when the long-run rental rate of capital is not so low relative to labor, our framework generates a BGP in which both types of innovation go hand-in-hand.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
A planner would allocate scientists according to the same principle-guided by the cost savings that each technology grants to firms.
“We show that a planner would also allocate scientists according to the same principle-guided by the cost savings that each technology grants to firms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given§ C. Welfare
One of the main insights from Proposition 6 is that the expected path for factor prices determines the incentives to automate and create new tasks.
“One of the main insights from Proposition 6 is that the expected path for factor prices determines the incentives to automate and create new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of Profits
In the creative destruction model, innovation incentives depend on the total revenue that a technology generates rather than its incremental value created.
“here innovation incentives depend on the total revenue that a technology generates rather than its incremental value created”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ C. Welfare
When the labor market is fully competitive as in the baseline model, the reduction in employment from automation has no first-order welfare cost for the representative household.
“When the labor market is fully competitive as in our baseline model, this reduction in employment has no first-order welfare cost for the representative household”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
In the extended model where high-skill labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks relative to low-skill labor, both automation and the creation of new tasks increase inequality.
“In this case, both automation (which squeezes out tasks previously performed by low-skill labor) and the creation of new tasks (which directly benefits high-skill labor) increase inequality.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
If the elastic labor supply relationship results from rents, so that there is a wedge between the wage and the opportunity cost of labor, there is a natural bias toward excessive automation because firms make automation decisions according to the wage rate, not the lower opportunity cost of labor.
“If the elastic labor supply relationship results from rents (so that there is a wedge between the wage and the opportunity cost of labor), there is an important new distortion: because firms make automation decisions according to the wage rate, not the lower opportunity cost of labor, there is a natural bias toward excessive automation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
If the standardization effect is sufficiently powerful, there exists a BGP in which not only the factor distribution of income between capital and labor but also inequality between the two skill types stays constant.
“If this standardization effect is sufficiently powerful, there exists a BGP in which not only the factor distribution of income (between capital and labor) but also inequality between the two skill types stays constant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ V. Conclusion
Though market forces ensure the stability of the BGP, they do not necessarily generate the efficient composition of technology.
“though market forces ensure the stability of the BGP, they do not necessarily generate the efficient composition of technology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 112
- The quote only partly states this claim. 5
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 54
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*In the static model with fixed capital and exogenous technology, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages.
“In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects.”
- Also stated in: § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo* · hedged
“Automation always reduces the labor share and employment, and may even reduce wages.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
- Also stated in: § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo* · hedged
The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which automation and creation of new tasks advance at equal rates.
“Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelAn increase in equilibrium automation I* increases the share of capital and reduces the share of labor in the aggregate production function, while creation of new tasks does the opposite.
“An increase in I * , which corresponds to greater equilibrium automation , increases the share of capital and reduces the share of labor in this aggregate production function, while the creation of new tasks does the opposite.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelIf I* = ~I < I, new tasks increase productivity, but additional automation technologies do not.
“That is, new tasks increase productivity, but additional automation technologies do not.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelAn increase in N (creation of new tasks) raises W/R, the labor share, and employment.
“An increase in N ( the creation of new tasks) raises W/R , the labor share, and employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelIf I* = ~I < I, an increase in N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate, while an increase in I has no effect on factor prices.
“That is, an increase in N (more new tasks) always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate, while an increase in I (greater technological automation) has no effect on factor prices.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*Both automation and creation of new tasks increase inequality in the short run, but standardization limits the increase in inequality in the long run.
“This extension formalizes the idea that both automation and the creation of new tasks increase inequality in the short run but standardization limits the increase in inequality in the long run.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*In the dynamic model, although the real wage increases in the long run due to the productivity effect, automation still reduces the labor share and employment.
“Although the real wage in the long run increases because of this productivity effect, automation still reduces the labor share and employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelBoth automation and creation of new tasks increase productivity.
“That is, both technologies increase productivity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelThe technology-constrained elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, σ_hat, differs from the technology-free elasticity, σ_free, and σ_free > σ_hat.
“This additional margin of adjustment implies that σ free > ˆ σ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Equilibrium in the Static ModelA higher N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate of capital, while a higher I always increases the rental rate of capital but may reduce the equilibrium wage.
“That is, a higher N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate of capital, while a higher I always increases the rental rate of capital but may reduce the equilibrium wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*In the second extension with creative destruction, results are similar, but conditions for uniqueness and stability of the balanced growth path are more demanding.
“The results in this case are similar, but the conditions for uniqueness and stability of the balanced growth path are more demanding.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*In the extension with heterogeneous skills, automation directly takes jobs away from unskilled labor and increases inequality, while new tasks directly benefit skilled workers and at first increase inequality as well.
“Because of this pattern of comparative advantage, automation directly takes jobs away from unskilled labor and increases inequality, while new tasks directly benefit skilled workers and at first increase inequality as well.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced GrowthIn the two interior BGPs, automation and introduction of new tasks go hand-in-hand, and n*(t) is constant at some value between 0 and 1, implying both capital and labor perform a fixed measure of tasks.
“More important for our focus are the two interior BGPs where automation and the introduction of new tasks go hand-in-hand, and as a result, n * (t) is constant at some value between 0 and 1; this implies that both capital and labor perform a fixed measure of tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.In the model, automation makes the production process more capital intensive and less labor intensive.
“In our model, automation shifts the range of tasks performed by capital and labor: it makes the production process more capital intensive and less labor intensive”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF: See online Appendix B.The displacement effect dominates the productivity effect when the gap between W/γ(I*) and R is small, which is guaranteed when K < ~K.
“The displacement effect dominates the productivity effect when the gap between W/γ(I * ) and R is small: which is guaranteed when K < ˜ K .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced GrowthIn the interior BGP with eventual automation (case iii), n*(t)=_n(ρ) and I*(t)=~I(t)>I(t).
“In this BGP, n * (t) = _ n (ρ) and I * (t) = ~ I (t) > I(t) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningCompetition among prospective technology monopolists to hire scientists implies W_I^S(t)=κ_I V_I(t) and W_N^S(t)=κ_N V_N(t).
“Competition among prospective technology monopolists to hire scientists implies that W I S (t ) = κ I V I (t ) and W N S (t ) = κ N V N (t) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone givenThere exists _S such that, when S < _S, Proposition 6 cases hold.
“There exists _ S such that, when S < _ S , we have: 31 (i) Full Automation: For ρ < _ ρ , there is a BGP in which n(t ) = 0 and thus all tasks are produced with capital”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ B. Long-Run Comparative StaticsFor n < _n(ρ), n*(t)=_n(ρ), w_I(n)=w_I(_n(ρ)), w_N(n)=w_N(_n(ρ)), and small changes in n do not affect paths of effective wages, employment, and labor share.
“For n < _ n (ρ) , we have that n * (t) = _ n (ρ) , w I (n) = w I ( _ n (ρ)) , and w N (n) = w N ( _ n (ρ)) . In this region, small changes in n do not affect the paths of effective wages, employment, and the labor share;”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningFor an interior BGP with n∈(0,1), κ_I v_I(n)=κ_N v_N(n).
“and for an interior BGP with n ∈ (0, 1) we need (29) κ I v I (n) = κ N v N (n).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone givenThe value of developing new automation technologies depends on the gap between the cost of producing with labor (effective wage w(τ)) and the rental rate of capital.
“The value of developing new automation technologies depends on the gap between the cost of producing with labor (given by the effective wage, w(τ) ) and the rental rate of capital”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:In the long run, automation reduces employment and the labor share, but it always increases the wage.
“In the long run, automation reduces employment and the labor share, but it always increases the wage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningEquation (28) implies n ̇(t)>0 iff κ_N V_N(t)>κ_I V_I(t), and n ̇(t)<0 iff κ_N V_N(t)<κ_I V_I(t).
“Equation (28) implies that n ̇ (t ) > 0 if and only if κ N V N (t ) > κ I V I (t) , and n ̇ (t ) < 0 if and only if κ N V N (t ) < κ I V I (t ) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ B. Long-Run Comparative StaticsFor n > _n(ρ), n*(t)=n, w_I(n) is increasing and w_N(n) is decreasing in n.
“For n > _ n (ρ) , we have that n * (t) = n , and w I (n) is increasing and w N (n) is decreasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningWhen the wage is higher, V_I(t) increases and technology monopolists have greater incentives to introduce new automation technologies to substitute capital for more expensive labor.
“When the wage is higher, V I (t) increases and technology monopolists have greater incentives to introduce new automation technologies to substitute capital for the more expensive labor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:Because the short-run impact of new tasks on the rental rate of capital is ambiguous, the response of capital accumulation is also ambiguous.
“Because the short-run impact of new tasks on the rental rate of capital is ambiguous, so is the response of capital accumulation.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingreasoning§ A. Balanced GrowthAlong a path with I ̇=N ̇=Δ and n(t)=n≥_n(ρ), n*(t)=n and g(t)=AΔ.
“Along such a path, n * (t) = n and g(t) = AΔ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ A. Endogenous and Directed Technological ChangeThe unique equilibrium price for all types of intermediates is a limit price of ψ, yielding a per unit profit of (1-μ)ψ>0 for technology monopolists.
“This ensures that the unique equilibrium price for all types of intermediates is a limit price of ψ , and yields a per unit profit of (1 -μ) ψ > 0 for technology monopolists.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Intellectual property rights to each intermediate are held by a technology monopolist who can produce at marginal cost μψ, with μ∈(0,1), ψ>0; a competitive fringe can replicate at higher marginal cost ψ; μ is such that the unconstrained monopoly price exceeds ψ.
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:A permanent increase in N increases the wage, aggregate output, employment, and the labor share, both in the short and long run.
“In this case, new tasks increase the wage (because w I (n) is increasing in n ), aggregate output, employment, and the labor share, both in the short and the long run.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenV_N(t) is greater when the gap between the rental rate of capital and the cost of producing new tasks with labor (w(τ)/γ(n(t))) is larger.
“The expression for V N (t) has an analogous interpretation, and is greater when the gap between the rental rate of capital and the cost of producing new tasks with labor ( w(τ )/γ(n(t )) ) is larger.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningWhen ρ < _ρ and n < ~n(ρ), w_N(n) > ρ+δ+θg, implying labor is too expensive relative to capital and creating new tasks is not profitable.
“Intuitively, as also shown in Figure 4, when ρ < _ ρ and n < ~ n (ρ) , we have w N (n) > ρ + δ + θg , which implies that labor is too expensive relative to capital.Utilizing and thus creating new tasks is not profitable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone givenThere exists _κ ≥ κ_ > 0 such that if κ_I/κ_N > _κ there exists a unique interior BGP with n*(t)=n(t)=n∈(_n(ρ),1) and κ_N v_N(n)=κ_I v_I(n).
“if κ I / κ N > _ κ there exists a unique BGP.In this BGP we have n * (t ) = n(t ) = n ∈ ( _ n ( ρ), 1) and κ N v N (n) = κ I v I (n) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor κI/κN > κbar, the unique interior BGP is globally stable if θ = 0 and locally stable if θ > 0.
“Proposition 6 also shows that for κ I / κ N > _ κ , the unique interior BGP is globally stable provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is infinite (i.e., θ = 0 ), and locally stable otherwise (i.e., when θ > 0 ).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenWhen κ_I/κ_N > _κ, the curve κ_I v_I(n) is sufficiently steep relative to κ_N v_N(n) so that the two curves necessarily intersect and can only intersect once; hence there exists a unique interior BGP.
“Conversely, when κ I / κ N > _ κ , the curve κ I v I (n) is sufficiently steep relative to κ N v N (n) so that the two curves necessarily intersect and can only intersect once.Hence, there exists a unique interior BGP”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
FindingreasoningAt the unique intersection, a further increase in n raises the value of automating an additional task vI(n) more than the value of creating a new task vN(n).
“At this point, a further increase in n always raises the value of automating an additional task, v I (n) , more than the value of creating a new task, v N (n) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningWhen ρ > _ρ, the two curves can only intersect for n∈(n̅(ρ),1], implying that in any BGP newly automated tasks will be immediately produced with capital.
“The two curves can only intersect for n ∈ ( n ̅ ( ρ), 1] , implying that in any BGP, newly automated tasks will be immediately produced with capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningWhen ρ < _ρ, κ_I v_I(0) is above κ_N v_N(0) for n < ~n(ρ); in this region it is not optimal to create new tasks, and there exists a BGP with full automation where all tasks are automated and produced with capital.
“Panel A of Figure 8 illustrates the first part of Proposition 6 (which parallels the first part of Proposition 4): when ρ < _ ρ , κ I v I (0) is above κ N v N (0) for n < ~ n ( ρ) .In this region it is not optimal to create new tasks.Consequently, there exists a BGP with full automation, meaning that all tasks will be automated and produced with capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningWhen κ_I/κ_N < κ_, κ_I v_I(n) is not sufficiently steep relative to κ_N v_N(n), and the two never intersect; even at n=1, it is not profitable to create new automation technologies, and all tasks will be produced with labor.
“This means that even at n = 1 , it is not profitable to create new automation technologies, and all tasks will be produced with labor.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone givenFor ρ > _ρ, all BGPs feature n(t)=n > _n(ρ).
“For ρ > _ ρ , all BGPs feature n(t ) = n > _ n (ρ) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningA lower value of n reduces w_I(n); w_I(n) is increasing in n.
“A lower value of n , which corresponds to additional automation, reduces w I (n) : in other words w I (n) is increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningBecause κI vI(n) starts below κN vN(n) at nbar(ρ), the unique intersection must have the κI vI(n) curve steeper than the κN vN(n) curve.
“Because κ I v I (n) starts below κ N v N (n) at n ̅ (ρ) (reflecting the fact that at this point, new automation technologies are not immediately adopted and thus the value of creating these technologies is 0), the unique intersection must have the former curve being steeper than the former.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone givenIf θ=0, the equilibrium is unique everywhere and the BGP is globally saddle-path stable; if θ>0, the equilibrium is unique in the neighborhood of the BGP and asymptotically saddle-path stable.
“If, in addition, θ = 0 , then the equilibrium is unique everywhere and the BGP is globally (saddle-path) stable.If θ > 0 , then the equilibrium is unique in the neighborhood of the BGP and is asymptotically (saddle-path) stable;”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, the relative productivity of low-skill workers converges to 1 for tasks that have been around for a long time.
“when ξ = 1 , the relative productivity of low-skill workers converges to 1 for tasks that have been around for a long time.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :The structure of comparative advantage ensures there exists a threshold task M such that high-skill labor performs tasks in [M,N], low-skill labor performs tasks in (I*,M), and capital performs tasks in [N-1,I*].
“The structure of comparative advantage ensures that there exists a threshold task M such that high-skill labor performs tasks in [ M, N ] , low-skill labor performs tasks in ( I * , M ) , and capital performs tasks in [N -1, I * ] .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :If ξ = 1, in the unique BGP WH and WL grow at the same rate as the economy, the wage gap WH/WL remains constant, and capital, low-skill, and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.
“If ξ = 1 , in the unique BGP W H (t) and W L (t) grow at the same rate as the economy, the wage gap, W H (t )/ W L (t ) , remains constant, and capital, low-skill, and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :If ξ = 1, lim WH/WL is decreasing in n.
“is decreasing in n .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ < 1, the productivity of low-skill workers relative to high-skill workers converges to γL(i,t)/γH(i) = γH(i)^{ξ-1}, and limits to zero as more advanced tasks are introduced.
“When ξ < 1 , the productivity of low-skill workers relative to high-skill workers converges to γ L (i, t)/ γ H (i) = γ H (i) ξ-1 , and limits to zero as more and more advanced tasks are introduced.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningThe transition process following an increase in κI/κN involves a slower rate of increase of N and a more rapid rate of increase of I than the BGP.
“The transition process will involve a slower rate of increase of N and a more rapid rate of increase of I than the BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :If ξ < 1, in the unique BGP lim WH/WL = ∞, the share of tasks performed by low-skill workers converges to zero, and capital and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.
“If ξ < 1 , in the unique BGP we have lim t→∞ W H (t )/ W L (t ) = ∞ , the share of tasks performed by low-skill workers converges to zero, and capital and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of ProfitsCreative destruction introduces a new source of instability: vI^CD(n) is decreasing in n.
“The major difference with our previous analysis is that creative destruction introduces a new source of instability.Unlike the previous case with no creative destruction, we now have that v I CD (n) is decreasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingreasoning§ C. WelfareWith labor market frictions where quasi-labor supply is increasing, has elasticity εL > 0, and is binding (W/C > ν'(L)), automation can reduce welfare (dW/dI ≶ 0), while new tasks increase welfare (dW/dN > 0).
“Suppose also that the quasi-labor supply schedule L qs (ω) is increasing in ω , has an elasticity ~ ε L > 0 , and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν ′ (L) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of ProfitsvN^CD(n) continues to be increasing in n because the productivity effect ensures the effective wage in new tasks wN(n) is decreasing in n, and because newly-created tasks are automated after n/Δ units of time, an increase in n increases the present discounted value of profits from new tasks.
“v N CD (n) continues to be increasing in n .This is for two reasons: first, as before, the productivity effect ensures that the effective wage in new tasks, w N (n) , is decreasing in n ; and second, because newly-created tasks are automated after n/Δ units of time, an increase in n increases the present discounted value of profits from new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of ProfitsUnder the same conditions, if ι(n) is constant, any stable BGP involves n(t) → 0 or n(t) → 1.
“Any stable BGP involves n(t ) → 0 or n(t ) → 1 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:Under the same conditions, if ρ < ρmin, for all n ∈ [0,1] we have wI(n) ≥ wN(n) > ρ+δ+θg, which implies new tasks do not increase aggregate output and will not be adopted for any n ∈ [0,1].
“(iv) If ρ < ρ min , for all n ∈ [0, 1] we have w I (n ) ≥ w N (n ) > ρ + δ + θg , which implies that new tasks do not increase aggregate output and will not be adopted for any n ∈ [0, 1] .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ > ρ_max, ρ+δ+θg > w_I(n) > w_N(n), and n* = 1, and no task will be produced with capital.
“Thus, ρ + δ + θg > w I ( n ) > w N (n) , and for all these values we have n * = 1 , and no task will be produced with capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ < ρ_min, ρ+δ+θg < w_N(1) < w_I(1).
“To prove part (iv), note that for ρ < ρ min , we have ρ + δ + θg < w N (1) < w I (1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:_n(ρ_max)=1 and _n(_ρ)=0, so _n(·) is well defined for all ρ ≥ _ρ.
“Moreover, _ n ( ρ max ) = 1 and _ n ( _ ρ ) = 0 , so _ n ( ⋅ ) is well defined for all ρ ≥ _ ρ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:Under the same conditions, if ρ ∈ [ρbar, ρmax], there is an increasing function nbar(ρ) such that for all n > nbar(ρ), wI(n) > ρ+δ+θg > wN(n) and ρ+δ+θg = wI(nbar(ρ)); nbar(ρmax)=1 and nbar(ρbar)=0.
“(ii) If ρ ∈ [ _ ρ , ρ max ] , there is an increasing function _ n ( ρ ) : [ _ ρ , ρ max ] → (0, 1] such that for all n > _ n (ρ) , we have w I ( n ) > ρ + δ + θg > w N (n) and ρ + δ + θg = w I ( _ n ( ρ )) .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ < ρ_min, ρ+δ+θg < w_N(n) < w_I(n) and new tasks do not raise aggregate output.
“Thus, ρ + δ + θg < w N (n) < w I (n) and for these values of ρ , new tasks do not raise aggregate output.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:Under the same conditions, if ρ > ρmax, for all n ∈ [0,1] we have ρ+δ+θg > wI(n) ≥ wN(n), which implies automation is not profitable for any n ∈ [0,1].
“(iii) If ρ > ρ max , for all n ∈ [0, 1] we have ρ + δ + θg > w I ( n ) ≥ w N ( n ) , which implies that automation is not profitable for any n ∈ [0, 1] .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For all n > ~n(ρ), w_I(n) > w_I(~n(ρ)) > ρ+δ+θg = w_N(~n(ρ)) > w_N(n).
“Thus, for all n > ~ n (ρ) , we have w I (n) > w I ( ~ n ( ρ )) > ρ + δ + θg = w N ( ~ n ( ρ )) > w N (n), as claimed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:The unique intersection of the relative demand and ideal price curves determines the equilibrium factor prices for given I*, N, and K.
“The unique intersection of the relative demand and ideal price curves determines the equilibrium factor prices for given I * , N , and K .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ ∈ [_ρ, ρ_max] and starting at _n(ρ), w_N(n) is decreasing in n and w_I(n) is increasing in n.
“Thus, the formulas for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (n) show that, for ρ ∈ [ _ ρ , ρ max ] and starting at _ n (ρ) , w N (n) is decreasing in n and w I (n) is increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:Lemma A1: Suppose Assumption 2′ holds, K < Kbar and I* ≤ I~. Then ω(I*,N,K) is decreasing in I* and increasing in N.
“LEMMA A1: Suppose that Assumption 2′ holds, K < _ K and I * ≤ ~ I .Then ω( I * , N, K ) is decreasing in I * and is increasing in N .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For n = ~n(ρ), w_I(~n(ρ)) > ρ+δ+θg = w_N(~n(ρ)).
“For n = ~ n (ρ) , we have w I ( ~ n (ρ )) > ρ + δ + θg = w N ( ~ n ( ρ)) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:In the region n < _n(ρ), n* = _n(ρ) > n, and not all automated tasks are produced with capital.
“In this region we have n * = _ n ( ρ) > n , and not all automated tasks are produced with capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:~n(ρ_min)=1 and ~n(_ρ)=0, so ~n(·) is well defined for ρ ∈ [ρ_min, _ρ].
“Moreover, ~ n ( ρ min ) = 1 and ~ n ( _ ρ ) = 0 , so ~ n ( ⋅ ) is well defined for ρ ∈ [ ρ min , _ ρ ] .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ ∈ [ρ_min, _ρ] and starting at ~n(ρ), w_N(n) is decreasing in n and w_I(n) is increasing in n.
“Thus, the formulas for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (N) show that, for ρ ∈ [ ρ min , _ ρ ] and starting at ~ n (ρ) , the curve w N (n) is decreasing in n and the curve w I (n) is increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Findingreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:Because the relative demand curve is upward-sloping and the ideal price index curve is downward-sloping, there can be at most one intersection.
“Because the relative demand curve is upward-sloping and the ideal price index curve is downward-sloping, there can be at most one intersection.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For ρ > ρ_max, ρ+δ+θg > w_I(1) > w_N(1).
“To prove part (iii), note that for ρ > ρ max , we have ρ + δ + θg > w I (1) > w N (1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF:For all n > _n(ρ), w_I(n) > w_I(_n(ρ)) = ρ+δ+θg > w_N(_n(ρ)) > w_N(n).
“Thus, for all n > _ n ( ρ ) , we have w I (n) > w I ( _ n ( ρ )) = ρ + δ + θg > w N ( _ n ( ρ )) > w N (n ), as claimed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In all-tasks-automated case, F_L = 0, so representative household supplies zero labor.
“Because all tasks are produced with capital, we also have F L = 0 , and thus the representative household supplies zero labor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In this path economy converges to unique BGP with C(t) and K(t) growing at rate (A_K - δ - ρ)/θ, establishing uniqueness and global stability.
“In this path the economy converges to a unique BGP in which C(t ) and K(t ) grow at a constant rate A K -δ -ρ ______ θ , thus also establishing uniqueness and global stability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In that case, net output is A_K K, and economy grows at rate (A_K - δ - ρ)/θ.
“In this part of the parameter space, net output is given by A K K , and the economy grows at the rate A K -δ -ρ ______ θ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:The differential equation for ~c has a stable rest point at zero and an unstable rest point at c_B > 0.
“This differential equation has a stable rest point at zero and an unstable rest point at c B = ( A k -δ -1 _ θ ( A K -δ -ρ) ) e ν (0) 1-θ _ θ > 0 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Net output is F(k,L;n).
“Substituting the market-clearing conditions for capital and labor, (A3) and (A4), into (1), ( 2), and (3) and then subtracting the costs of intermediates, we obtain net output as F(k, L; n) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:F(k,L;n) exhibits constant returns to scale, and R(t)=F_K, w(t)=F_L.
“F(k, L; n) exhibits constant returns to scale, and because factor markets are competitive, we also have R(t) = F K (k(t), L(t); n) and w(t) = F L (k (t), L(t); n) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Dynamic equilibrium can be characterized by system of differential equations.
“Consequently, the dynamic equilibrium can be characterized as the solution to the system of differential equations”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:First possibility satisfies transversality condition and yields equilibrium path.
“The first possibility, on the other hand, satisfies the transversality condition (since asymptotically it involves r > g ), and yields an equilibrium path.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingcitation§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In the all-tasks-automated case (n*=0), ρ < _ρ and I(t)=N(t).
“Because in this case capital performs all tasks, Lemma A2 implies that we must have ρ < _ ρ and I(t ) = N(t) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In interior equilibrium with n*(t)=n(t)=n∈(0,1), n > max{_n(ρ), ~n(ρ)} and Ṅ(t)=İ(t).
“Because capital performs all automated tasks, Lemma A2 implies that n > max { _ n ( ρ), ~ n ( ρ)} and N ˙ (t) = I ˙ (t) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Lemma A2 verifies n*(t)=n > _n(ρ).
“Lemma A2 then verifies that n * (t) = n > _ n (ρ) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Three possible equilibrium paths for ~c(t): jump to c_B; start at [0,c_B) and converge to zero; start at (c_B,∞) and diverge.
“There are therefore three possible equilibrium paths for ~ c (t) : (i) it immediately jumps to c B and stays there; (ii) it starts at [ 0, c B ) and converges to zero; (iii) it starts at ( c B , ∞) and diverges.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Second and third possibilities violate transversality condition and resource constraint.
“The second and third possibilities violate, respectively, the transversality condition (19) (because the capital stock would grow at the rate A k -δ , implying r = g ), and the resource constraint (when ~ c (t ) = ∞ ).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:There is a unique solution to the system, converging to full automation BGP.
“We next show that there is a unique solution to the system, and this solution converges to the full automation BGP described in the proposition.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Generalized ideal price index condition implies R = c_u^{-1}(B^{1-σ}/(1-σ)), and thus A_K = c_u^{-1}(B^{1-σ}/(1-σ)).
“The generalized ideal price index condition, equation (A5), then implies that R = c u -1 ( B 1-ˆ σ ____ 1-σ ) , and thus A K = c u -1 ( B 1-ˆ σ ____ 1-σ ) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:In candidate BGP, R(t) constant implies W(t)/γ(I(t)) constant, only possible if İ(t)=Δ.
“Moreover, because in this candidate BGP R(t) is constant, the general form of the generalized ideal price index condition, (A5), implies that W(t)/γ (I(t)) must be constant too, and this is only possible if I ˙ (t) = Δ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:This candidate BGP satisfies transversality condition (19) and is unique BGP.
“Moreover, in view of the fact that ρ + (θ -1 ) AΔ > 0 , this candidate BGP satisfies the transversality condition (19), and is indeed the unique BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotThis allocation satisfies transversality condition, defines unique BGP.
“Because this allocation also satisfies the transversality condition (in view of the fact that ρ + (θ -1)AΔ > 0 ), it defines a unique BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotBecause n*(t)=_n(ρ), Ṅ(t)=Δ.
“Because n * (t) = _ n ( ρ) , this also implies that N ˙ (t) = Δ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotTo generate constant growth of wages, İ*(t)=Δ ≤ I(t), so growth rate is AΔ.
“Thus, to generate constant growth of wages we must have I ˙ * (t) = Δ ≤ I(t) , so that the growth rate of the economy is given by AΔ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:For ρ<_ρ and n<~n(ρ), v_I(n) is positive and decreasing in n, and v_N(n) is negative and increasing in n.
“As depicted in panel A of Figure 8 and shown in Lemma A3, in this region v I (n) is positive and decreasing in n , and v N (n) is negative and increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone given§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Proof of global stability is similar to neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply.
“The proof of the global stability of this unique BGP is similar to the analysis of global stability of the neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply, and for completeness, we provide the details in online Appendix B.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:This ensures unique L_B>0, and k_B=φ L_B.
“This ensures that there exists a unique value L B > 0 that satisfies this equation, and also pins down the value of the normalized capital stock as k B = ϕ L B .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotIn all-tasks-labor case n*(t)=1, ρ>ρ_max and n(t)≥1, and W(t)/γ(N(t)) constant.
“Because labor performs all tasks, Lemma A2 now implies ρ > ρ max and n(t) ≥ 1 , while the ideal price index condition, (A5), imposes that W(t)/γ (N(t)) must be constant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotUniqueness and global stability follow from identical arguments to part (ii), with _n(ρ) playing role of n.
“The uniqueness and global stability of the BGP follow from an identical arguments to part (ii), with the only modification that _ n ( ρ) plays the role of n in the preceding proof.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Euler equation implies R_B = ρ+δ+θg, and since R_B=F_K(k_B,L_B;n), k_B/L_B=φ, where φ is unique solution to F_K(φ,1;n)=ρ+δ+θg.
“Then, the Euler equation, (17), implies R B = ρ + δ + θg , and because R B = F K ( k B , L B ; n) , we must also have k B / L B = ϕ , where ϕ is the unique solution to F K (ϕ, 1 ; n ) = ρ + δ + θg.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Then we would have ν'(0)e^{(θ-1)/θ ν(0)} < F_L(φ,1;n)/c_B, which contradicts labor supply optimality condition (18).
“But then we would have ν ′ (0) e θ-1 ___ θ ν(0) < F L (ϕ, 1; n) ______ c B , which contradicts the labor supply optimality condition, (18).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotThis implies K(t)=0 and C(t)=w_B γ(N(t)-1)L(t).
“This implies K(t) = 0 and C(t) = w B γ (N(t) -1) L(t) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotIn interior equilibrium with n*(t)=_n(ρ)>n(t), n(t)<_n(ρ) and ρ>_ρ.
“Because capital does not immediately perform all automated tasks, Lemma A2 implies that n(t) < _ n ( ρ) and ρ > _ ρ .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:BGP variables w_B, k_B, c_B, L_B, R_B are all constant.
“These variables are, by definition, all constant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:Left-hand side is linear and increasing in L, right-hand side decreasing in L.
“The left-hand side of this equation is linear and increasing in L (the concavity of F in k implies that F(ϕ, 1; n) > ϕ F K (ϕ, 1; n) > (δ + g )ϕ ), while the right-hand side is decreasing in L .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ D. Proofs from Section IVIf n < ~n(ρ) (and ρ<_ρ), κ_I v_I(n) > 0 > κ_N v_N(n). Moreover, in this region, v_I(n) is decreasing and v_N(n) is increasing in n.
“• If n < ~ n (ρ) (and ρ < _ ρ ), we have κ I v I (n) > 0 > κ N v N (n).Moreover, in this region, v I (n) is decreasing and v N (n) is increasing in n .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but NotNet output is F(k,L;n)=w_B γ(N(t)-1)L(t), depends linearly on labor and independent of capital.
“Consequently, net output is given by F(k, L; n ) = w B γ (N(t) -1) L(t) , and thus depends linearly on labor and is independent of capital.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:Laws of motion imply existence of unique stable arm, and no equilibrium paths not along stable arm.
“The laws of motion of the two variables, v and n , take the form shown in the phase diagram.34 This implies the existence of the unique stable arm, and also establishes 34 This can also be verified locally from the fact that the behavior of n and v near the BGP can be approximated by the linear system n ̇ = -( κ N + κ I ) G ′ (0 ) Sv and v ̇ = ρv -Q, where Q > 0 denotes the derivative of -M κ I c”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:All paths above stable arm feature v̇>0 and eventually n→0 and v→∞, v_I→∞, violating transversality condition (27).
“In particular, all paths above the stable arm feature v ˙ > 0 and eventually n → 0 and v → ∞ , and since v N is positive, v I → ∞ .But this violates the transversality condition, (27).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:This contradicts n(t)<_n(ρ).
“But this contradicts n(t) < _ n ( ρ ) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:For ρ>_ρ and n(t)≤_n(ρ), n*(t)=_n(ρ) and v_N(n)=v_N(_n(ρ)), v_I(n)=v_I(_n(ρ)).
“Suppose n(t) ≤ _ n (ρ) .Then, we have n * (t ) = _ n (ρ) and there- fore v N (n ) = v N ( _ n ( ρ )) and v I (n) = v I ( _ n (ρ)) .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere exists threshold ˇS such that BGP is locally stable for S<ˇS, and conclusions follow setting _S = min{~S, ˆS, S ̆, ˇS}.
“Online Appendix B shows that there exists a threshold ˇ S such that the BGP in this case is locally stable for S < ˇ S , and thus the conclusions of the proposition follow setting _ S = min { ~ S , ˆ S , S ˘ , ˇ S } .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown data§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:This follows from κ_I v_I(n) cuts κ_N v_N(n) from below at n_B.
“This follows from the fact that κ I v I (n) cuts κ N v N (n) from below at n B as shown in Figure 8.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:Therefore, all scientists employed to create new tasks, so ṅ>0 (uniformly bounded away from zero).
“Therefore, in this region this region we always have that all scientists will be employed to create new tasks, and thus n ̇ > 0 (and is uniformly bounded away from zero).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:All paths below stable arm feature v̇<0 and eventually n→1 and v→-∞, v_N→∞, violating transversality condition.
“Similarly, all paths below the stable arm feature v ˙ < 0 and eventually n → 1 and v → -∞ , and thus v N → ∞ , once again violating the transversality condition.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:When θ=0, R=ρ+δ, capital adjusts immediately and equilibrium stock only depends on n, unique state variable.
“Because θ = 0 , we also have R = ρ + δ , and capital adjusts immediately and its equilibrium stock only depends on n , which becomes the unique state variable of the model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*The relationship shown in Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980.
“The relationship shown in Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*A wave of automation pushes down the effective cost of producing with labor, discouraging further efforts to automate additional tasks and encouraging creation of new tasks.
“This stability result highlights a crucial new force: a wave of automation pushes down the effective cost of producing with labor, discouraging further efforts to automate additional tasks and encouraging the creation of new tasks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown data§ By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*The same relationship between new job titles and employment growth holds for 1990-2015 and 2000-2015, and is present without controls and when controlling for average education and structural changes in the US economy.
“In online Appendix B, we show that the same relationship holds between the share of new job titles in 1990 (in 2000) and employment growth from 1990 to 2015 (from 2000 to 2015), and that these patterns are present without any controls and when we control for average education in the occupation and the structural changes in the US economy as well.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ A. Balanced GrowthConstant growth requires productivity gains from new tasks to be exponential.
“constant growth requires productivity gains from new tasks to be exponential.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ PROOF:Alternatively, faster automation might be driven by a deceleration in N(t), in which case there would also be low growth of aggregate output and wages.
“Alternatively, it might be driven by a deceleration in the rate at which N(t) advances, in which case we would also have low growth of aggregate output and wages.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningThe asymptotic stability of the interior BGP implies powerful market forces push the economy toward balanced growth.
“The asymptotic stability of the interior BGP implies that there are powerful market forces pushing the economy toward balanced growth.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIncreases in n beyond its BGP value trigger further automation, while lower values of n encourage creation of new tasks, ensuring stability of the unique BGP.
“This ensures that increases in n beyond its BGP value trigger further automation, while lower values of n encourage the creation of new tasks, ensuring the stability of the unique BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIn the no automation BGP, capital becomes redundant, and growth is driven by endogenous technological change increasing labor's productivity as in standard quality ladder models.
“In this BGP, capital becomes redundant, and growth is driven by endogenous technological change increasing labor's productivity as in the standard quality ladder models such as Aghion and Howitt (1992) or Grossman and Helpman (1991).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Aghion and Howitt (1992)
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Grossman and Helpman (1991)
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe fact that v_N(n) is increasing in n creates a force toward multiplicity of BGPs, while v_I(n) increasing pushes toward uniqueness and stability.
“We will see next that the fact that v N (n) is increasing in n creates a force toward multiplicity of BGPs, while the fact that v I (n) is increasing in n pushes toward uniqueness and stability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenCertain changes in the environment, such as a large increase in B or a decline in ρ, can shift the economy from the region with a unique interior BGP to the region with full automation, with disastrous consequences for labor.
“certain changes in the environment (for example, a large increase in B or a decline in ρ ) can shift the economy from the region in which there is a unique interior BGP to the region with full automation, with disastrous consequences for labor.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :The ratio γH(i)/γL(i,t) is increasing in i, which implies high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in higher-indexed tasks.
“The ratio γ H (i)/ γ L (i, t) is increasing in i , which implies that high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in higher-indexed tasks.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ B. Creative Destruction of ProfitsThe alternative structure with creative destruction has similar implications for the BGP but necessitates more demanding conditions to guarantee its uniqueness and stability.
“We will see that this alternative structure has similar implications for the BGP, but necessitates more demanding conditions to guarantee its uniqueness and stability.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, the creation of new tasks, which leads to a permanently higher level of n, increases inequality in the short run but reduces it in the long run.
“The creation of new tasks, which leads to a permanently higher level of n , increases inequality in the short run but reduces it in the long run.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :If ξ = 1, a permanent increase in I raises the wage gap WH/WL in both the short and the long run.
“a permanent increase in I raises the wage gap in both the short and the long run.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, automation increases inequality both in the short and the long run.
“Consequently, automation increases inequality both in the short and the long run.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningPermanent changes in the ability of society to create new automation technologies trigger self-correcting dynamics but take the economy toward a new BGP with lower employment and labor share, and may also involve slower productivity growth.
“Permanent changes in the ability of society to create new automation technologies trigger self-correcting dynamics as well, but these will take us toward a new BGP with lower employment and labor share, and may also involve slower productivity growth in the process.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ < 1, low-skill workers are progressively squeezed into a smaller and smaller set of tasks, and wage inequality grows without bound.
“As a result, low-skill workers are progressively squeezed into a smaller and smaller set of tasks, and wage inequality grows without bound.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, in the long run inequality is decreasing in n because a higher n translates into a greater range of tasks for low-skill workers.
“In the long run, inequality is decreasing in n (because a higher n translates into a greater range of tasks for low-skill workers).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :If ξ = 1, a permanent increase in N raises the wage gap WH/WL in the short run but reduces it in the long run.
“a permanent increase in N raises the wage gap W H (t )/ W L (t) in the short run, but reduces it in the long run”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :Inequality may be high following a period of adjustment in which the labor share first declines due to increases in automation and then recovers due to the introduction and later standardization of new tasks.
“These observations suggest that inequality may be high following a period of adjustment in which the labor share first declines (due to increases in automation), and then recovers (due to the introduction and later standardization of new tasks).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningStarting from the interior BGP, the effects of small increases in automation technology reverse themselves over time, restoring employment and the labor share back to their initial values.
“Starting from the interior BGP, the effects of (small) increases in automation technology will reverse themselves over time, restoring employment and the labor share back to their initial values.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, automation and the creation of new tasks still reduce the relative earnings of low-skill workers in the short run, but their long-run implications are very different.
“In this case, automation and the creation of new tasks still reduce the relative earnings of low-skill workers in the short run, but their long-run implications are very different.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ ASSUMPTION 1″ :When ξ = 1, because new tasks become standardized, they can over time be as productively used by low-skill workers.
“Because new tasks become standardized, they can over time be as productively used by low-skill workers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ V. ConclusionBy reducing the effective cost of labor in the least complex tasks, automation discourages further automation and generates a self-correcting force toward stability.
“by reducing the effective cost of labor in the least complex tasks, automation discourages further automation and generates a self-correcting force toward stability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ V. ConclusionIn our model, because the supply of labor is elastic, automation tends to reduce employment, while the creation of new tasks increases employment.
“In our model, because the supply of labor is elastic, automation also tends to reduce employment, while the creation of new tasks increases employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ V. ConclusionIf in the long run capital is very cheap relative to labor, automation technologies will advance rapidly and labor will become redundant.
“If in the long run capital is very cheap relative to labor, automation technologies will advance rapidly and labor will become redundant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ C. WelfareEven though automation expands productivity, a force which always raises welfare, it also reduces employment.
“Even though automation expands productivity, a force which always raises welfare, it also reduces employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ V. ConclusionWhen the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to capital increases, for example as a result of automation, the wage relative to the rental rate and the labor share decline, and the equilibrium wage rate may also fall.
“when the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to capital increases (for example, as a result of automation), the wage relative to the rental rate and the labor share decline, and the equilibrium wage rate may also fall.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ V. ConclusionThe task-based framework implies that as a factor becomes cheaper, this not only influences the range of tasks allocated to it, but also generates incentives for the introduction of technologies that allow firms to utilize this factor more intensively.
“The task-based framework, differently from the standard models of directed technological change based on factor-augmenting technologies , implies that as a factor becomes cheaper, this not only influences the range of tasks allocated to it, but also generates incentives for the introduction of technologies that allow firms to utilize this factor more intensively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ V. ConclusionIn this case, under reasonable assumptions, the dynamic equilibrium is unique and converges to the BGP.
“Moreover in this case, under reasonable assumptions, the dynamic equilibrium is unique and converges to the BGP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ B. Creative Destruction of ProfitsAs more tasks are automated, the rental rate remains unchanged and newly-automated tasks will be replaced less frequently, so automating more tasks renders further automation more profitable.
“As a result, automating more tasks renders further automation more profitable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ C. WelfareAssuming labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices, the decentralized equilibrium involves too much effort devoted to improving automation relative to what the social planner would like, because the social planner recognizes that additional automation has a negative effect through employment.
“assuming that labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices, the decentralized equilibrium involves too much effort being devoted to improving automation relative to what she would like , because the social planner recognizes that additional automation has a negative effect through employment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ C. WelfareWith labor market frictions, the reduction in employment resulting from automation has a negative impact on welfare, and this negative effect can exceed the positive impact from productivity gains, turning automation, on net, into a negative for welfare.
“Crucially, the reduction in employment resulting from automation now has a negative impact on welfare, and this negative effect can exceed the positive impact following from the productivity gains, turning automation, on net, into a negative for welfare.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ V. ConclusionIn practice, the acquisition of new skills may need to go hand-in-hand with workers shifting to newer tasks, and the inability of the educational system to adapt to the requirements of these new tasks could become a bottleneck and prevent the rebound in the demand for labor following a wave of automation.
“In practice, the acquisition of new skills may need to go hand-in-hand with workers shifting to newer tasks, and the inability of the educational system to adapt to the requirements of these new tasks could become a bottleneck and prevent the rebound in the demand for labor following a wave of automation.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
“ASSUMPTION 1: γ(i) is strictly increasing.”
“Assumption 1 implies that labor has strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
“ASSUMPTION 2: One of the following two conditions holds: (i) η → 0 , or (ii) ζ = 1 .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
“ASSUMPTION 3: We have K < _ K , where _ K is such that R = W _ γ(N) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
“we introduce heterogeneity in skills, and assume that skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks, which we view as a natural assumption.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Capital has the same productivity in all tasks.
“A simplifying feature of the technology described in equation (3) is that capital has the same productivity in all tasks.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Non-automated tasks can be produced with just labor.
“Another simplifying assumption is that non-automated tasks can be produced with just labor.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
New tasks created at N immediately replace tasks located at N-1.
“we have simplified the exposition by imposing that new tasks created at N immediately replace tasks located at N -1”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The utility cost of labor supply is continuously differentiable, increasing, convex, and satisfies ν″(L) + (θ -1) × (ν ′(L)) 2 /θ > 0.
“which we assume to be continuously differentiable, increasing, and convex, and to satisfy ν″(L) + (θ -1) × (ν ′(L)) 2 /θ > 0”
The paper relies on this without support.
No comprehensive framework exists incorporating automation effects and potential countervailing forces.
“Yet, we lack a comprehensive framework incorporating such effects, as well as potential countervailing forces.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Labor market frictions cause the wage rate to be above the opportunity cost of labor.
“when the wage rate is above the opportunity cost of labor (due to labor market frictions)”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The representative household's dynamic preferences are given by equation (14) with discount rate ρ > 0.
“We assume that the representative household's dynamic preferences are given by (14) ∫ 0 ∞ e -ρt u(C(t), L(t)) dt, where u(C(t), L(t)) is as defined in equation ( 4) and ρ > 0 is the discount rate.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The comparative advantage schedule satisfies Assumption 1′: γ(i)=e^{Ai} with A > 0.
“ASSUMPTION 1′: γ(i) satisfies (15) γ(i) = e Ai with A > 0.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The path of technology {I(t), N(t)} is exogenous.
“The path of technology, represented by {I(t), N(t)} , is exogenous”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 4: σ̂ > ζ.
“ASSUMPTION 4: ˆ σ > ζ .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Intellectual property rights to each intermediate are held by a technology monopolist who can produce at marginal cost μψ, with μ∈(0,1), ψ>0; a competitive fringe can replicate at higher marginal cost ψ; μ is such that the unconstrained monopoly price exceeds ψ.
“we deviate from our earlier assumption of a perfectly competitive market for intermediates, and assume that ( intellectual) property rights to each intermediate, q(i) , are held by a technology monopolist who can produce it at the marginal cost μψ in terms of the final good, where μ ∈ (0, 1) and ψ > 0 .We also assume that this technology can be copied by a fringe of competitive firms, which can Re”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Developing a new intermediate that automates or replaces an existing task is viewed as infringement; the firm must compensate the existing patent holder, with compensation via a take-it-or-leave-it offer.
“We assume that developing a new intermediate that automates or replaces an existing task is viewed as an infringement of the patent of the technology previously used to produce that task.For that reason, a firm must compensate the technology monopolist who owns the property rights over the production of the intermediate that it is replacing.We also assume that this compensation takes place with”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There is a fixed supply of S scientists allocated to automation or creation of new tasks.
“There is a fixed supply of S scientists, which will be allocated to automation ( S I (t) ≥ 0 ) or the creation of new tasks ( S N (t) ≥ 0 ), so that S I (t) + S N (t) ≤ S.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
When a scientist is employed in automation, she automates κ_I tasks per unit time; in creation, she creates κ_N new tasks per unit time.
“When a scientist is employed in automation, she automates κ I tasks per unit of time and receives a wage W I S (t) .When she is employed in the creation of new tasks, she creates κ N new tasks per unit of time and receives a wage W N S (t) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Automation and creation of new tasks proceed in the order of the task index i.
“We assume that automation and the creation of new tasks proceed in the order of the task index i .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Scientists differ in cost of effort: working in automation costs χ_I j Y(t), creation costs χ_N j Y(t); the distribution of χ_I j - χ_N j is smooth and increasing G over [-υ,υ], with υ small enough that all scientists work.
“we assume that scientists differ in the cost of effort: when working in automation, scientist j incurs a cost of χ I j Y(t) , and when working in the creation of new tasks, she incurs a cost of χ N j Y(t) .26 Consequently, scientist j will work in automation if”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Normalization G(0)=κ_N/(κ_I+κ_N).
“For notational convenience, we also adopt the normalization G(0) = κ N _ κ I + κ N .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In equilibrium n(t) > max{n̅(ρ), ~n(ρ)}, so that I*(t)=I(t) and newly-automated tasks start being produced with capital immediately.
“To simplify the exposition, let us assume that in this equilibrium n(t) > max { n ̅ (ρ), ~ n (ρ)} , so that I * (t) = I(t) and newly-automated tasks start being produced with capital immediately.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
High-skill workers have a comparative advantage in new tasks.
“The assumption that high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in new tasks receives support from the data.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There are two types of workers: low-skill workers with time-varying productivity γL(i,t) in task i, and high-skill workers with productivity γH(i).
“we assume that there are two types of workers: low-skill workers with time-varying productivity γ L (i, t) in task i , and high-skill workers with productivity γ H (i) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 1″: productivities are given by γH(i)=e^{A_H i}, γL(i,t)=e^{ξ A_H i} Γ(t-T(i)), where Γ is increasing with lim Γ=1, ξ∈(0,1], and T(i) is the time task i was first introduced.
“The productivities of high-skill and low-skill workers are given by γ H (i ) = e A H i , γ L (i, t ) = e ξ A H i Γ(t -T(i)), where Γ is increasing with lim x→∞ Γ(x) = 1 , ξ ∈ (0, 1] , and T(i) denotes the time when task i was first introduced.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
New technologies do not infringe the patents of the products that they replace.
“new technologies do not infringe the patents of the products that they replace”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The function ι(n(t)) is nondecreasing.
“the function ι(n(t )) is included and assumed to be nondecreasing”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There exists an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply schedule L_qs(ω) which constrains employment L ≤ L_qs(ω).
“suppose that there exists an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply schedule, L qs (ω) , which constrains the level of employment, so that L ≤ L qs (ω)”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 2′: one of three conditions holds: (i) η→0; (ii) ζ=1; or (iii) |σ-ζ| < ...
“ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
“it is assumed that labor has a comparative advantage in these new tasks”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Automation is modeled as the endogenous expansion of the set of tasks that can be performed by capital, replacing labor in tasks that it previously produced.
“Automation is modeled as the (endogenous) expansion of the set of tasks that can be performed by capital, replacing labor in tasks that it previously produced.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The new type of technological change complementing labor takes the form of the introduction of new, more complex versions of existing tasks.
“this takes the form of the introduction of new, more complex versions of existing tasks”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The supply of high-skill labor is fixed at H and the supply of low-skill labor is fixed at L.
“assume that the supply of high-skill labor is fixed at H and the supply of low-skill labor is fixed at L”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Technology evolves exogenously with Ndot=Idot=Δ and n(t)=n > max{nbar(ρ), ntilde(ρ)} and A_H(1-θ)Δ < ρ.
“Suppose also that technology evolves exogenously with N ˙ = I ˙ = Δ and n(t) = n > max{ _ n ( ρ), ~ n ( ρ)} (and A H (1 -θ )Δ < ρ ).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
ρ > ρbar and κI/κN > κbar.
“Suppose that ρ > _ ρ and κ I / κ N > _ κ .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumptions 1′, 2, and 4 hold, and there is creative destruction of profits.
“Suppose that ρ > _ ρ , Assumptions 1′ , 2, and 4 hold, and there is creative destruction of profits.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The quasi-labor supply schedule L_qs(ω) is increasing in ω, has elasticity εL > 0, and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν'(L).
“Suppose also that the quasi-labor supply schedule L qs (ω) is increasing in ω , has an elasticity ~ ε L > 0 , and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν ′ (L) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices.
“assuming that labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 2′ holds.
“We prove this proposition under the more general Assumption 2′ .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 2 holds.
“Under Assumption 2, this last expression further simplifies to A K = B as claimed in the text.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumptions 1′, 2′, and 4 hold.
“Suppose that Assumptions 1′ , 2′ , and 4 hold.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Assumption 3 holds.
“This is ensured by Assumption 3, and avoids the need for additional notation at this point.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
θ=0.
“Because θ = 0 , we also have R = ρ + δ , and capital adjusts immediately and its equilibrium stock only depends on n , which becomes the unique state variable of the model.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
S < ~S.
“Suppose that S < ~ S so that Lemma A3 applies.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
S < S˘.
“By continuity there exists a threshold S ˘ such that, for S < S ˘ , the locus for v ̇ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point n B”
The authors state this as an assumption.
S < ˇS.
“Online Appendix B shows that there exists a threshold ˇ S such that the BGP in this case is locally stable for S < ˇ S”
The authors state this as an assumption.
ρ+(θ-1)AΔ>0.
“Finally, the transversality condition, (19), is satisfied given the condition ρ + (θ -1 ) AΔ > 0 in this part of the proposition.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
ρ+(θ-1)Δ>0.
“Thus, to generate a constant wage, aggregate output and capital growth, we must have N ˙ (t) = Δ , with ρ + (θ -1)Δ > 0”
The authors state this as an assumption.
g=0.
“When g = 0 , the locus for v ˙ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point”
The authors state this as an assumption.
n(t)≤_n(ρ).
“Suppose n(t) ≤ _ n (ρ) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
n(t)>_n(ρ).
“Suppose, instead, that n(t) > _ n ( ρ ) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
n<~n(ρ).
“Suppose that n < ~ n ( ρ) .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
n≥max{_n,~n}.
“• If n ≥ max { _ n , ~ n } , both v N (n) and v I (n) are positive and increasing in n ;”
The authors state this as an assumption.
n<~n(ρ) and ρ<_ρ.
“• If n < ~ n (ρ) (and ρ < _ ρ ), we have κ I v I (n) > 0 > κ N v N (n).”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Much of these algorithms' potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases, including the creation of new types of work.
“As with other general-purpose technologies, much of these algorithms' potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases, including the creation of new types of work (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018;Autor et al., 2022a).”
From GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models (2023) · cites this paper as Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018
The paper’s opening discussion describes new tasks arising alongside digital technologies and AI, and the Conclusion explains how technological change can create tasks that complement labor. This supports the creation-of-new-work part of the claim, but the paper does not establish that much of these algorithms’ potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAI can complement workers by making them more efficient, helping them to produce higher quality work, or enabling them to take on new value-adding tasks.
“There is cause for optimism: AI can complement workers by making them more efficient, helping them to produce higher quality work, or enabling them to take on new value-adding tasks (72–74).”
From The impact of generative artificial intelligence on socioeconomic inequalities and policy making (2024) · cites this paper as [72]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
An increase in I cannot increase n when n = N − I
MinorHolding N fixed, an increase in I lowers n by definition. Proposition 5 describes an increase in n caused by an increase in I.
“Finally, if the increase in n is caused by an increase in I , the capital stock also increases.”
“n(t) = N(t) -I(t)”
Eventual-automation BGP places the equilibrium threshold above the technology threshold
MinorThe paper defines the equilibrium threshold as I* = min{I, ~I}, so I* cannot exceed I. Proposition 4's eventual-automation case states the opposite.
“In this BGP, n * (t) = _ n (ρ) and I * (t) = ~ I (t) > I(t) .”
“This implies that there exists a unique equilibrium threshold task I * = min { I, ~ I }”
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Experimental evidence on the productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence
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“Moreover, their impacts on aggregate productivity may be small or nonexistent to the degree that they mainly serve to redistribute income previously earned by displaced workers to the capital owners supplying their robot replacements (10).”
BackgroundArtificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation
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Digital technologies, innovation, and skills: Emerging trajectories and challenges
Ciarli, T., Kenney, M. F., Massini, S., & Piscitello, L. (2021) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2021.104289 · Cited by 659 · see citing works
“…relies on quantitative research on the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) (e.g., Autor et al., 1998; Bresnahan et al., 2002) and automation (e.g., Arntz et al., 2017; Bessen, 2019) and the extent to which they replace humans in performing tasks (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018).”
BackgroundAcemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2022) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdab031 · Cited by 586 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots
Dauth, W., Findeisen, S., Suedekum, J., & Woessner, N. (2021) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab012 · Cited by 578 · see citing works
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2023) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2303.10130 · Cited by 545 · see citing works
“More recent studies have distinguished between technology’s task-displacement and task-reinstatement effects (where new technology increases the need for a wider array of labor-intensive tasks) (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018, 2019).”
BackgroundTong, S., Jia, N., Luo, X., & Fang, Z. (2021) · Strategic Management Journal · doi:10.1002/smj.3322 · Cited by 531 · see citing works
Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction
Balsmeier, B., & Wörter, M. (2019) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2019.03.010 · Cited by 500 · see citing works
Koch, M., Manuylov, I., & Smolka, M. (2021) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/ueab009 · Cited by 452 · see citing works
Artificial intelligence: Implications for the future of work
Howard, J. (2019) · American Journal of Industrial Medicine · doi:10.1002/ajim.23037 · Cited by 522 · see citing works
The demand for AI skills in the labor market
Alekseeva, L., Azar, J., Giné, M., Samila, S., & Taska, B. (2021) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102002 · Cited by 432 · see citing works
Liu, Y., Yang, Y., Li, H., & Zhong, K. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph19042414 · Cited by 427 · see citing works
“Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018) improved the neoclassical model by adding the hypothesis that machine intelligence and human labor complement each other and found that the application of machine intelligence can increase the economic growth rate by an order of magnitude or more [22].”
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How can artificial intelligence impact sustainability: A systematic literature review
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The emerging driving force of inclusive green growth: Does digital economy agglomeration work?
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“There is cause for optimism: AI can complement workers by making them more efficient, helping them to produce higher quality work, or enabling them to take on new value-adding tasks (72 – 74).”
Work of the past, work of the future
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The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity
Damioli, G., Van Roy, V., & Vertesy, D. (2021) · Eurasian Business Review · doi:10.1007/s40821-020-00172-8 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
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“Some economists are optimistic because the rise of robots will create new jobs and roles for humans (Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2018).”
BackgroundThe rise of artificial intelligence – understanding the AI identity threat at the workplace
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“…the public discussion about AI has turned more optimistic in recent years, the fear of AI eliminating current jobs still outweighs the possible opportunities for human-AI collaboration (Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2018; Aleksander, 2017; Dwivedi et al., 2019; Wang & Siau, 2019; Zhang & Dafoe, 2019).”
BackgroundOECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers
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Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence
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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market
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“Nonetheless, there is also an increasing realisation that the technological revolution could exacerbate economic problems, for example in the form of unemployment or reduced wages (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018).”
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The effect of manufacturing intelligence on green innovation performance in China
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The simple macroeconomics of AI
Acemoglu, D. (2025) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiae042 · Cited by 317 · see citing works
Tubaro, P., Casilli, A. A., & Coville, M. (2020) · Big Data & Society · doi:10.1177/2053951720919776 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
“While some scientific research corroborates these predictions (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018), other studies highlight historical dynamics of complementarity rather than substitution between human labour and machinery (Autor, 2015; Bessen, 2017), with more complex outcomes such as polarization between…”
ResultThe effect of artificial intelligence on carbon intensity: Evidence from China's industrial sector
Liu, J., Liu, L., Qian, Y., & Song, S. (2021) · Socio-Economic Planning Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.seps.2020.101002 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Micro Data and Macro Technology
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Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?
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Artificial intelligence focus and firm performance
Mishra, S., Ewing, M. T., & Cooper, H. B. (2022) · Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science · doi:10.1007/s11747-022-00876-5 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
“Our research compliments Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018) theoretical framework.”
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Zhao, P., Gao, Y. B., & Sun, X. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155306 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality
Hémous, D., & Olsen, M. (2021) · American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20160164 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
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The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline*
Vincent, N., Goetz, C., Barlevy, G., Bloom, N., Caunedo, J., Cochrane, J., Collard-Wexler, A., Davis, S., Hopenhayn, H. A., Hsieh, C.-T., et al. (2021) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjab002 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
A pathway to sustainable development: Digitization and green productivity
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Farboodi, M., & Veldkamp, L. (2021) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdag074 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
“Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018) consider the growth potential from robots.”
BackgroundHow does the use of industrial robots affect the ecological footprint? International evidence
Chen, Y., Cheng, L., & Lee, C. (2022) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107483 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Digital transformation, labour share, and industrial heterogeneity
Chen, N., Sun, D., & Chen, J. (2022) · Journal of Innovation & Knowledge · doi:10.1016/j.jik.2022.100173 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Does digital infrastructure cut carbon emissions in Chinese cities?
Tang, K., & Yang, G. (2022) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2022.11.022 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
What is the price of a skill? The value of complementarity
Stephany, F., & Teutloff, O. (2024) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2023.104898 · Cited by 199 · see citing works
Keding, C. (2021) · Management Review Quarterly · doi:10.1007/s11301-020-00181-x · Cited by 231 · see citing works
“2019; Wilson and Daugherty 2018) or substitution of human managers by intelligent machines (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2018; Autor 2015; Brynjolfsson and Mitchell 2017). From a strategic management perspective, the decisional situations that need human judgment and analysis regularly relate to issues where problems are far…”
BackgroundInfluentialGlobal Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies
Dieppe, A. (2020) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1608-6 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
“…extent to which the income effects offset automation effect will depend crucially on the type of tasks required to complement new technologies and associated capital assets, and the supply of workers with the appropriate skills for these tasks (Acemoglu and Autor 2011; Acemoglu and Restrepo 2018).”
BackgroundArtificial Intelligence and the Transformation of Higher Education Institutions: A Systems Approach
Katsamakas, E., Pavlov, O. V., & Saklad, R. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su16146118 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Corporate digital transformation and labor structure upgrading
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Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine
Klaus Prettner, A., & Strulik, H. (2019) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.012 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
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Labor cost, government intervention, and corporate innovation: Evidence from China
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New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018
Autor, D., Chin, C., Salomons, A., & Seegmiller, B. (2022) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjae008 · Cited by 277 · see citing works
From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The Art and AI of Stock Analyses
CAO, S. S., Jiang, W., Wang, J. L., & Yang, B. (2021) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103910 · Cited by 199 · see citing works
Jiang, W., & Li, J. (2024) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102638 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
Acemoğlu, D. (2024) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w32487 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Zhang, Y., & Gosline, R. R. (2023) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/jdm.2023.37 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
“25 Sep 2026 at 20:02:33, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use. of on par or higher quality than the human experts in our context) and lowering prices (e.g., the monthly subscription fee for ChatGPT-4 is $20) (Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2018; 2020; Agrawal et al., 2019).”
Tian, M., Chen, Y., Tian, G., Huang, W., & Hu, C. (2023) · International Journal of Production Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2023.108929 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
“Firms ’ adoption of a series of digital techniques, which is a potential substitute for a low-skilled workforce and a complement to a highly-skilled workforce, may optimize their human capital structure (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018).”
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Autor, D. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.3386/w30074 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
“Building on Lin’s observations, Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018b) fuse the notion of new work (more precisely, new tasks) into the canonical task model.”
BackgroundMeasuring the Occupational Impact of AI: Tasks, Cognitive Abilities and AI Benchmarks
Tolan, S., Pesole, A., Martínez‐Plumed, F., Fernández‐Macías, E., Hernández‐Orallo, J., & Gómez, E. (2021) · Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research · doi:10.1613/jair.1.12647 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
“For instance, replacing labour by AI would only be economically feasible if the effective costs of performing the task with machines are lower (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018).”
BackgroundThe pathway to curb greenwashing in sustainable growth: The role of artificial intelligence
Zhang, D. (2024) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107562 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
The role of robot adoption in green innovation: Evidence from China
Gan, J., Liu, L., Qiao, G., & Zhang, Q. (2022) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106128 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Przegalinska, A. K., Triantoro, T., Kovbasiuk, A., Ciechanowski, L., Freeman, R. B., & Sowa, K. (2025) · International Journal of Information Management · doi:10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2024.102853 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data
Parteka, A., & Kordalska, A. (2023) · Technovation · doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2023.102764 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
“They assume that some (or even all) tasks, including R&D, can be automated (Zeira, 1998; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018; Aghion et al., 2019; Growiec, 2020, 2021).”
BackgroundArtificial intelligence, firms and consumer behavior: A survey
Abrardi, L., Cambini, C., & Rondi, L. (2019) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/joes.12455 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Gallego, A., & Kurer, T. (2022) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104535 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
“This approach combines a focus on tasks with theoretical models of directed technological change in which new technology is endogenous to the cost of labor or other factors (Acemoglu & Restrepo 2018; see also Caselli & Manning 2019, Hémous & Olsen 2021).”
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Benign Effects of Automation: New Evidence from Patent Texts
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Towards low-carbon development: The role of industrial robots in decarbonization in Chinese cities
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How Does New Infrastructure Investment Affect Economic Growth Quality? Empirical Evidence from China
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“The second approach considers AI as a technology that enables automated production, and is thus more likely to be used to substitute labor [33].”
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Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data
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Do robots really destroy jobs? Evidence from Europe
Klenert, D., Fernández‐Macías, E., & Antón, J. (2022) · Economic and Industrial Democracy · doi:10.1177/0143831x211068891 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
“Using this approach, Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), Dauth et al. (2021), Chiacchio et al. (2018) and Antón et al. (2020) explore the impact of robots on employment on the US, Germany, and different selections of EU countries, respectively.”
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The impact of artificial intelligence on economic growth and welfare
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Acemoğlu, D. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w29247 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Will artificial intelligence make energy cleaner? Evidence of nonlinearity
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The Elusive Explanation for the Declining Labor Share
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Uneven growth: automation’s impact on income and wealth inequality
Moll, B., Rachel, L., & Restrepo, P. (2022) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta19417 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Self-citationA Survey on Income Inequality in China
Zhang, J. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20201495 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Does the Application of Industrial Robots Overcome the Solow Paradox?
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- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P.
- Affiliations
- Department of Economics, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02142 (email: )
- Boston University (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2018-06-01
- Volume
- 108
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1488-1542
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3125498346
- Semantic Scholar
- 60eaae8784648ca44c1b6100760ccafad03162ee
- Cited by
- 3,121
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 698 · 2025: 667 · 2024: 570 · 2023: 371 · 2022: 295 · 2021: 218 · 2020: 141 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 185.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Keywords
- automation, task creation, labor share, employment, economic growth, capital accumulation, endogenous innovation, balanced growth path, wage effects, skill heterogeneity, income inequality, technological change
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