Cited by 3,121Labor market dynamics and wage inequalityEconomic Growth and ProductivityEconomic Theory and Policy

The race between man and machine: implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment

Open access
Acemoglu, Daron, Restrepo, Pascual·2018·American Economic Review

Abstract

We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects. Our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research toward automation and the creation of new tasks. If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks. Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand. Stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor, and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks. In an extension with heterogeneous skills, we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and the introduction of new tasks, and characterize the conditions under which inequality stabilizes in the long run. (JEL D63, E22, E23, E24, J24, O33, O41)

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Acemoglu and Restrepo develop a task-based model in which automation replaces labor in existing tasks while new labor-comparative-advantage tasks are created, showing automation reduces employment and the labor share and may reduce wages, while new tasks have opposite effects. In the full model, unless capital is very cheap relative to labor, the economy tends toward a stable balanced growth path with both automation and new-task creation, though labor market frictions can generate excessive automation.

Key findings

  • In the static model, automation reduces employment and the labor share and may even reduce wages; the creation of new tasks raises wages, employment, and the labor share.
  • In the dynamic model, if the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks; otherwise there is a stable balanced growth path in which automation and new-task creation advance together. In the long run, automation increases the wage but reduces employment and the labor share.
  • Empirically, occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles in 1980 experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015; about 60 percent of the roughly 50 million jobs added over that period are associated with additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles. In 2000, about 70 percent of computer software developers held new job titles.
  • With heterogeneous skills, both automation and new tasks increase inequality in the short run, but standardization of new tasks can stabilize inequality in the long run. With labor market frictions, automation can reduce welfare, and the decentralized equilibrium features excessive automation.

Methods

  • Theoretical: a static task-based model with fixed capital and exogenous technology, then a dynamic model with endogenous capital accumulation, and a full model that endogenizes the direction of research toward automation and the creation of new tasks via directed technological change; extensions cover heterogeneous skills, creative destruction of profits, and welfare.
  • Empirical: uses Lin (2011) data to measure the share of new job titles within occupational categories, with US Census data for 1980, 1990, and 2000 and American Community Survey data for 2015; Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980, with further details in online Appendix B.
  • Main analysis: characterizes static equilibrium and comparative statics, derives conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of balanced growth paths, and analyzes long-run comparative statics and the three extensions.

Limitations

  • The paper states that the model imposes automation of tasks at the bottom, whereas in reality middle tasks may be automated; it also abstracts from industry-level technological barriers and from the need for workers to acquire new skills, which could bottleneck a rebound in labor demand. It calls for additional empirical evidence on automation’s employment and wage effects and on policy responses.
  • Evident from the text: the new-job-title empirical relationship is descriptive/associational rather than causally identified, and the theoretical results rely on specific assumptions such as balanced-growth preferences, the comparative advantage schedule, and a baseline patent structure without creative destruction.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1257/aer.20160696

Cites

63 of 67 references verified0 citation errors · 4 not checkable

Statistics

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Claims the paper makes

0 of 8 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingcitation
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    Occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015.

    “Figure 1 shows that occupations with 10 percentage points more new job titles (which is approximately the sample average in 1980) experienced 0.41 percent faster employment growth between 1980 and 2015.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lin (2011)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Findingnone given
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks.

    “If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
  • Findingcitation
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    During the last 35 years, new tasks and new job titles have accounted for a large fraction of US employment growth.

    “Indeed, during the last 35 years, new tasks and new job titles have accounted for a large fraction of US employment growth.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lin (2011)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    In the dynamic model with endogenous capital accumulation, capital accumulation responds to permanent shifts in technology to keep the interest rate and rental rate of capital constant.

    “A critical difference from our static model is that capital accumulation responds to permanent shifts in technology in order to keep the interest rate and hence the rental rate of capital constant.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    About 60 percent of the 50 million or so jobs added during 1980-2015 are associated with additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles relative to occupations with no new job titles.

    “This estimate implies that about 60 percent of the 50 million or so jobs added during this 35-year period are associated with the additional employment growth in occupations with new job titles (relative to occupations with no new job titles).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lin (2011)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims. 112
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 5
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 54
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    In the static model with fixed capital and exogenous technology, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages.

    “In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects.”
    • Also stated in: § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo* · hedged
      “Automation always reduces the labor share and employment, and may even reduce wages.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which automation and creation of new tasks advance at equal rates.

    “Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    An increase in equilibrium automation I* increases the share of capital and reduces the share of labor in the aggregate production function, while creation of new tasks does the opposite.

    “An increase in I * , which corresponds to greater equilibrium automation , increases the share of capital and reduces the share of labor in this aggregate production function, while the creation of new tasks does the opposite.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    If I* = ~I < I, new tasks increase productivity, but additional automation technologies do not.

    “That is, new tasks increase productivity, but additional automation technologies do not.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    An increase in N (creation of new tasks) raises W/R, the labor share, and employment.

    “An increase in N ( the creation of new tasks) raises W/R , the labor share, and employment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    If I* = ~I < I, an increase in N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate, while an increase in I has no effect on factor prices.

    “That is, an increase in N (more new tasks) always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate, while an increase in I (greater technological automation) has no effect on factor prices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    Both automation and creation of new tasks increase inequality in the short run, but standardization limits the increase in inequality in the long run.

    “This extension formalizes the idea that both automation and the creation of new tasks increase inequality in the short run but standardization limits the increase in inequality in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    In the dynamic model, although the real wage increases in the long run due to the productivity effect, automation still reduces the labor share and employment.

    “Although the real wage in the long run increases because of this productivity effect, automation still reduces the labor share and employment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    Both automation and creation of new tasks increase productivity.

    “That is, both technologies increase productivity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    The technology-constrained elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, σ_hat, differs from the technology-free elasticity, σ_free, and σ_free > σ_hat.

    “This additional margin of adjustment implies that σ free > ˆ σ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Equilibrium in the Static Model

    A higher N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate of capital, while a higher I always increases the rental rate of capital but may reduce the equilibrium wage.

    “That is, a higher N always increases the equilibrium wage but may reduce the rental rate of capital, while a higher I always increases the rental rate of capital but may reduce the equilibrium wage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    In the second extension with creative destruction, results are similar, but conditions for uniqueness and stability of the balanced growth path are more demanding.

    “The results in this case are similar, but the conditions for uniqueness and stability of the balanced growth path are more demanding.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    In the extension with heterogeneous skills, automation directly takes jobs away from unskilled labor and increases inequality, while new tasks directly benefit skilled workers and at first increase inequality as well.

    “Because of this pattern of comparative advantage, automation directly takes jobs away from unskilled labor and increases inequality, while new tasks directly benefit skilled workers and at first increase inequality as well.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Balanced Growth

    In the two interior BGPs, automation and introduction of new tasks go hand-in-hand, and n*(t) is constant at some value between 0 and 1, implying both capital and labor perform a fixed measure of tasks.

    “More important for our focus are the two interior BGPs where automation and the introduction of new tasks go hand-in-hand, and as a result, n * (t) is constant at some value between 0 and 1; this implies that both capital and labor perform a fixed measure of tasks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF: See online Appendix B.

    In the model, automation makes the production process more capital intensive and less labor intensive.

    “In our model, automation shifts the range of tasks performed by capital and labor: it makes the production process more capital intensive and less labor intensive”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF: See online Appendix B.

    The displacement effect dominates the productivity effect when the gap between W/γ(I*) and R is small, which is guaranteed when K < ~K.

    “The displacement effect dominates the productivity effect when the gap between W/γ(I * ) and R is small: which is guaranteed when K < ˜ K .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Balanced Growth

    In the interior BGP with eventual automation (case iii), n*(t)=_n(ρ) and I*(t)=~I(t)>I(t).

    “In this BGP, n * (t) = _ n (ρ) and I * (t) = ~ I (t) > I(t) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Competition among prospective technology monopolists to hire scientists implies W_I^S(t)=κ_I V_I(t) and W_N^S(t)=κ_N V_N(t).

    “Competition among prospective technology monopolists to hire scientists implies that W I S (t ) = κ I V I (t ) and W N S (t ) = κ N V N (t) .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    There exists _S such that, when S < _S, Proposition 6 cases hold.

    “There exists _ S such that, when S < _ S , we have: 31 (i) Full Automation: For ρ < _ ρ , there is a BGP in which n(t ) = 0 and thus all tasks are produced with capital”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § B. Long-Run Comparative Statics

    For n < _n(ρ), n*(t)=_n(ρ), w_I(n)=w_I(_n(ρ)), w_N(n)=w_N(_n(ρ)), and small changes in n do not affect paths of effective wages, employment, and labor share.

    “For n < _ n (ρ) , we have that n * (t) = _ n (ρ) , w I (n) = w I ( _ n (ρ)) , and w N (n) = w N ( _ n (ρ)) . In this region, small changes in n do not affect the paths of effective wages, employment, and the labor share;”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning

    For an interior BGP with n∈(0,1), κ_I v_I(n)=κ_N v_N(n).

    “and for an interior BGP with n ∈ (0, 1) we need (29) κ I v I (n) = κ N v N (n).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    The value of developing new automation technologies depends on the gap between the cost of producing with labor (effective wage w(τ)) and the rental rate of capital.

    “The value of developing new automation technologies depends on the gap between the cost of producing with labor (given by the effective wage, w(τ) ) and the rental rate of capital”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    In the long run, automation reduces employment and the labor share, but it always increases the wage.

    “In the long run, automation reduces employment and the labor share, but it always increases the wage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Equation (28) implies n ̇(t)>0 iff κ_N V_N(t)>κ_I V_I(t), and n ̇(t)<0 iff κ_N V_N(t)<κ_I V_I(t).

    “Equation (28) implies that n ̇ (t ) > 0 if and only if κ N V N (t ) > κ I V I (t) , and n ̇ (t ) < 0 if and only if κ N V N (t ) < κ I V I (t ) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § B. Long-Run Comparative Statics

    For n > _n(ρ), n*(t)=n, w_I(n) is increasing and w_N(n) is decreasing in n.

    “For n > _ n (ρ) , we have that n * (t) = n , and w I (n) is increasing and w N (n) is decreasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning

    When the wage is higher, V_I(t) increases and technology monopolists have greater incentives to introduce new automation technologies to substitute capital for more expensive labor.

    “When the wage is higher, V I (t) increases and technology monopolists have greater incentives to introduce new automation technologies to substitute capital for the more expensive labor.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    Because the short-run impact of new tasks on the rental rate of capital is ambiguous, the response of capital accumulation is also ambiguous.

    “Because the short-run impact of new tasks on the rental rate of capital is ambiguous, so is the response of capital accumulation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Balanced Growth

    Along a path with I ̇=N ̇=Δ and n(t)=n≥_n(ρ), n*(t)=n and g(t)=AΔ.

    “Along such a path, n * (t) = n and g(t) = AΔ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Endogenous and Directed Technological Change

    The unique equilibrium price for all types of intermediates is a limit price of ψ, yielding a per unit profit of (1-μ)ψ>0 for technology monopolists.

    “This ensures that the unique equilibrium price for all types of intermediates is a limit price of ψ , and yields a per unit profit of (1 -μ) ψ > 0 for technology monopolists.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Intellectual property rights to each intermediate are held by a technology monopolist who can produce at marginal cost μψ, with μ∈(0,1), ψ>0; a competitive fringe can replicate at higher marginal cost ψ; μ is such that the unconstrained monopoly price exceeds ψ.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    A permanent increase in N increases the wage, aggregate output, employment, and the labor share, both in the short and long run.

    “In this case, new tasks increase the wage (because w I (n) is increasing in n ), aggregate output, employment, and the labor share, both in the short and the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingnone given

    V_N(t) is greater when the gap between the rental rate of capital and the cost of producing new tasks with labor (w(τ)/γ(n(t))) is larger.

    “The expression for V N (t) has an analogous interpretation, and is greater when the gap between the rental rate of capital and the cost of producing new tasks with labor ( w(τ )/γ(n(t )) ) is larger.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    When ρ < _ρ and n < ~n(ρ), w_N(n) > ρ+δ+θg, implying labor is too expensive relative to capital and creating new tasks is not profitable.

    “Intuitively, as also shown in Figure 4, when ρ < _ ρ and n < ~ n (ρ) , we have w N (n) > ρ + δ + θg , which implies that labor is too expensive relative to capital.Utilizing and thus creating new tasks is not profitable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    There exists _κ ≥ κ_ > 0 such that if κ_I/κ_N > _κ there exists a unique interior BGP with n*(t)=n(t)=n∈(_n(ρ),1) and κ_N v_N(n)=κ_I v_I(n).

    “if κ I / κ N > _ κ there exists a unique BGP.In this BGP we have n * (t ) = n(t ) = n ∈ ( _ n ( ρ), 1) and κ N v N (n) = κ I v I (n) .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    For κI/κN > κbar, the unique interior BGP is globally stable if θ = 0 and locally stable if θ > 0.

    “Proposition 6 also shows that for κ I / κ N > _ κ , the unique interior BGP is globally stable provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is infinite (i.e., θ = 0 ), and locally stable otherwise (i.e., when θ > 0 ).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    When κ_I/κ_N > _κ, the curve κ_I v_I(n) is sufficiently steep relative to κ_N v_N(n) so that the two curves necessarily intersect and can only intersect once; hence there exists a unique interior BGP.

    “Conversely, when κ I / κ N > _ κ , the curve κ I v I (n) is sufficiently steep relative to κ N v N (n) so that the two curves necessarily intersect and can only intersect once.Hence, there exists a unique interior BGP”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingreasoning

    At the unique intersection, a further increase in n raises the value of automating an additional task vI(n) more than the value of creating a new task vN(n).

    “At this point, a further increase in n always raises the value of automating an additional task, v I (n) , more than the value of creating a new task, v N (n) .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    When ρ > _ρ, the two curves can only intersect for n∈(n̅(ρ),1], implying that in any BGP newly automated tasks will be immediately produced with capital.

    “The two curves can only intersect for n ∈ ( n ̅ ( ρ), 1] , implying that in any BGP, newly automated tasks will be immediately produced with capital.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    When ρ < _ρ, κ_I v_I(0) is above κ_N v_N(0) for n < ~n(ρ); in this region it is not optimal to create new tasks, and there exists a BGP with full automation where all tasks are automated and produced with capital.

    “Panel A of Figure 8 illustrates the first part of Proposition 6 (which parallels the first part of Proposition 4): when ρ < _ ρ , κ I v I (0) is above κ N v N (0) for n < ~ n ( ρ) .In this region it is not optimal to create new tasks.Consequently, there exists a BGP with full automation, meaning that all tasks will be automated and produced with capital.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    When κ_I/κ_N < κ_, κ_I v_I(n) is not sufficiently steep relative to κ_N v_N(n), and the two never intersect; even at n=1, it is not profitable to create new automation technologies, and all tasks will be produced with labor.

    “This means that even at n = 1 , it is not profitable to create new automation technologies, and all tasks will be produced with labor.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    For ρ > _ρ, all BGPs feature n(t)=n > _n(ρ).

    “For ρ > _ ρ , all BGPs feature n(t ) = n > _ n (ρ) .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    A lower value of n reduces w_I(n); w_I(n) is increasing in n.

    “A lower value of n , which corresponds to additional automation, reduces w I (n) : in other words w I (n) is increasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning

    Because κI vI(n) starts below κN vN(n) at nbar(ρ), the unique intersection must have the κI vI(n) curve steeper than the κN vN(n) curve.

    “Because κ I v I (n) starts below κ N v N (n) at n ̅ (ρ) (reflecting the fact that at this point, new automation technologies are not immediately adopted and thus the value of creating these technologies is 0), the unique intersection must have the former curve being steeper than the former.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    If θ=0, the equilibrium is unique everywhere and the BGP is globally saddle-path stable; if θ>0, the equilibrium is unique in the neighborhood of the BGP and asymptotically saddle-path stable.

    “If, in addition, θ = 0 , then the equilibrium is unique everywhere and the BGP is globally (saddle-path) stable.If θ > 0 , then the equilibrium is unique in the neighborhood of the BGP and is asymptotically (saddle-path) stable;”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, the relative productivity of low-skill workers converges to 1 for tasks that have been around for a long time.

    “when ξ = 1 , the relative productivity of low-skill workers converges to 1 for tasks that have been around for a long time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    The structure of comparative advantage ensures there exists a threshold task M such that high-skill labor performs tasks in [M,N], low-skill labor performs tasks in (I*,M), and capital performs tasks in [N-1,I*].

    “The structure of comparative advantage ensures that there exists a threshold task M such that high-skill labor performs tasks in [ M, N ] , low-skill labor performs tasks in ( I * , M ) , and capital performs tasks in [N -1, I * ] .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    If ξ = 1, in the unique BGP WH and WL grow at the same rate as the economy, the wage gap WH/WL remains constant, and capital, low-skill, and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.

    “If ξ = 1 , in the unique BGP W H (t) and W L (t) grow at the same rate as the economy, the wage gap, W H (t )/ W L (t ) , remains constant, and capital, low-skill, and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    If ξ = 1, lim WH/WL is decreasing in n.

    “is decreasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ < 1, the productivity of low-skill workers relative to high-skill workers converges to γL(i,t)/γH(i) = γH(i)^{ξ-1}, and limits to zero as more advanced tasks are introduced.

    “When ξ < 1 , the productivity of low-skill workers relative to high-skill workers converges to γ L (i, t)/ γ H (i) = γ H (i) ξ-1 , and limits to zero as more and more advanced tasks are introduced.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The transition process following an increase in κI/κN involves a slower rate of increase of N and a more rapid rate of increase of I than the BGP.

    “The transition process will involve a slower rate of increase of N and a more rapid rate of increase of I than the BGP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    If ξ < 1, in the unique BGP lim WH/WL = ∞, the share of tasks performed by low-skill workers converges to zero, and capital and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.

    “If ξ < 1 , in the unique BGP we have lim t→∞ W H (t )/ W L (t ) = ∞ , the share of tasks performed by low-skill workers converges to zero, and capital and high-skill workers perform constant shares of tasks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Creative Destruction of Profits

    Creative destruction introduces a new source of instability: vI^CD(n) is decreasing in n.

    “The major difference with our previous analysis is that creative destruction introduces a new source of instability.Unlike the previous case with no creative destruction, we now have that v I CD (n) is decreasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § C. Welfare

    With labor market frictions where quasi-labor supply is increasing, has elasticity εL > 0, and is binding (W/C > ν'(L)), automation can reduce welfare (dW/dI ≶ 0), while new tasks increase welfare (dW/dN > 0).

    “Suppose also that the quasi-labor supply schedule L qs (ω) is increasing in ω , has an elasticity ~ ε L > 0 , and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν ′ (L) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Creative Destruction of Profits

    vN^CD(n) continues to be increasing in n because the productivity effect ensures the effective wage in new tasks wN(n) is decreasing in n, and because newly-created tasks are automated after n/Δ units of time, an increase in n increases the present discounted value of profits from new tasks.

    “v N CD (n) continues to be increasing in n .This is for two reasons: first, as before, the productivity effect ensures that the effective wage in new tasks, w N (n) , is decreasing in n ; and second, because newly-created tasks are automated after n/Δ units of time, an increase in n increases the present discounted value of profits from new tasks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § B. Creative Destruction of Profits

    Under the same conditions, if ι(n) is constant, any stable BGP involves n(t) → 0 or n(t) → 1.

    “Any stable BGP involves n(t ) → 0 or n(t ) → 1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    Under the same conditions, if ρ < ρmin, for all n ∈ [0,1] we have wI(n) ≥ wN(n) > ρ+δ+θg, which implies new tasks do not increase aggregate output and will not be adopted for any n ∈ [0,1].

    “(iv) If ρ < ρ min , for all n ∈ [0, 1] we have w I (n ) ≥ w N (n ) > ρ + δ + θg , which implies that new tasks do not increase aggregate output and will not be adopted for any n ∈ [0, 1] .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ > ρ_max, ρ+δ+θg > w_I(n) > w_N(n), and n* = 1, and no task will be produced with capital.

    “Thus, ρ + δ + θg > w I ( n ) > w N (n) , and for all these values we have n * = 1 , and no task will be produced with capital.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ < ρ_min, ρ+δ+θg < w_N(1) < w_I(1).

    “To prove part (iv), note that for ρ < ρ min , we have ρ + δ + θg < w N (1) < w I (1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    _n(ρ_max)=1 and _n(_ρ)=0, so _n(·) is well defined for all ρ ≥ _ρ.

    “Moreover, _ n ( ρ max ) = 1 and _ n ( _ ρ ) = 0 , so _ n ( ⋅ ) is well defined for all ρ ≥ _ ρ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    Under the same conditions, if ρ ∈ [ρbar, ρmax], there is an increasing function nbar(ρ) such that for all n > nbar(ρ), wI(n) > ρ+δ+θg > wN(n) and ρ+δ+θg = wI(nbar(ρ)); nbar(ρmax)=1 and nbar(ρbar)=0.

    “(ii) If ρ ∈ [ _ ρ , ρ max ] , there is an increasing function _ n ( ρ ) : [ _ ρ , ρ max ] → (0, 1] such that for all n > _ n (ρ) , we have w I ( n ) > ρ + δ + θg > w N (n) and ρ + δ + θg = w I ( _ n ( ρ )) .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ < ρ_min, ρ+δ+θg < w_N(n) < w_I(n) and new tasks do not raise aggregate output.

    “Thus, ρ + δ + θg < w N (n) < w I (n) and for these values of ρ , new tasks do not raise aggregate output.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    Under the same conditions, if ρ > ρmax, for all n ∈ [0,1] we have ρ+δ+θg > wI(n) ≥ wN(n), which implies automation is not profitable for any n ∈ [0,1].

    “(iii) If ρ > ρ max , for all n ∈ [0, 1] we have ρ + δ + θg > w I ( n ) ≥ w N ( n ) , which implies that automation is not profitable for any n ∈ [0, 1] .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For all n > ~n(ρ), w_I(n) > w_I(~n(ρ)) > ρ+δ+θg = w_N(~n(ρ)) > w_N(n).

    “Thus, for all n > ~ n (ρ) , we have w I (n) > w I ( ~ n ( ρ )) > ρ + δ + θg = w N ( ~ n ( ρ )) > w N (n), as claimed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    The unique intersection of the relative demand and ideal price curves determines the equilibrium factor prices for given I*, N, and K.

    “The unique intersection of the relative demand and ideal price curves determines the equilibrium factor prices for given I * , N , and K .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ ∈ [_ρ, ρ_max] and starting at _n(ρ), w_N(n) is decreasing in n and w_I(n) is increasing in n.

    “Thus, the formulas for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (n) show that, for ρ ∈ [ _ ρ , ρ max ] and starting at _ n (ρ) , w N (n) is decreasing in n and w I (n) is increasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    Lemma A1: Suppose Assumption 2′ holds, K < Kbar and I* ≤ I~. Then ω(I*,N,K) is decreasing in I* and increasing in N.

    “LEMMA A1: Suppose that Assumption 2′ holds, K < _ K and I * ≤ ~ I .Then ω( I * , N, K ) is decreasing in I * and is increasing in N .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For n = ~n(ρ), w_I(~n(ρ)) > ρ+δ+θg = w_N(~n(ρ)).

    “For n = ~ n (ρ) , we have w I ( ~ n (ρ )) > ρ + δ + θg = w N ( ~ n ( ρ)) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    In the region n < _n(ρ), n* = _n(ρ) > n, and not all automated tasks are produced with capital.

    “In this region we have n * = _ n ( ρ) > n , and not all automated tasks are produced with capital.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    ~n(ρ_min)=1 and ~n(_ρ)=0, so ~n(·) is well defined for ρ ∈ [ρ_min, _ρ].

    “Moreover, ~ n ( ρ min ) = 1 and ~ n ( _ ρ ) = 0 , so ~ n ( ⋅ ) is well defined for ρ ∈ [ ρ min , _ ρ ] .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ ∈ [ρ_min, _ρ] and starting at ~n(ρ), w_N(n) is decreasing in n and w_I(n) is increasing in n.

    “Thus, the formulas for w I ′ (n) and w N ′ (N) show that, for ρ ∈ [ ρ min , _ ρ ] and starting at ~ n (ρ) , the curve w N (n) is decreasing in n and the curve w I (n) is increasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:

    Because the relative demand curve is upward-sloping and the ideal price index curve is downward-sloping, there can be at most one intersection.

    “Because the relative demand curve is upward-sloping and the ideal price index curve is downward-sloping, there can be at most one intersection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For ρ > ρ_max, ρ+δ+θg > w_I(1) > w_N(1).

    “To prove part (iii), note that for ρ > ρ max , we have ρ + δ + θg > w I (1) > w N (1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF:

    For all n > _n(ρ), w_I(n) > w_I(_n(ρ)) = ρ+δ+θg > w_N(_n(ρ)) > w_N(n).

    “Thus, for all n > _ n ( ρ ) , we have w I (n) > w I ( _ n ( ρ )) = ρ + δ + θg > w N ( _ n ( ρ )) > w N (n ), as claimed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In all-tasks-automated case, F_L = 0, so representative household supplies zero labor.

    “Because all tasks are produced with capital, we also have F L = 0 , and thus the representative household supplies zero labor.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In this path economy converges to unique BGP with C(t) and K(t) growing at rate (A_K - δ - ρ)/θ, establishing uniqueness and global stability.

    “In this path the economy converges to a unique BGP in which C(t ) and K(t ) grow at a constant rate A K -δ -ρ ______ θ , thus also establishing uniqueness and global stability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In that case, net output is A_K K, and economy grows at rate (A_K - δ - ρ)/θ.

    “In this part of the parameter space, net output is given by A K K , and the economy grows at the rate A K -δ -ρ ______ θ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    The differential equation for ~c has a stable rest point at zero and an unstable rest point at c_B > 0.

    “This differential equation has a stable rest point at zero and an unstable rest point at c B = ( A k -δ -1 _ θ ( A K -δ -ρ) ) e ν (0) 1-θ _ θ > 0 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Net output is F(k,L;n).

    “Substituting the market-clearing conditions for capital and labor, (A3) and (A4), into (1), ( 2), and (3) and then subtracting the costs of intermediates, we obtain net output as F(k, L; n) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    F(k,L;n) exhibits constant returns to scale, and R(t)=F_K, w(t)=F_L.

    “F(k, L; n) exhibits constant returns to scale, and because factor markets are competitive, we also have R(t) = F K (k(t), L(t); n) and w(t) = F L (k (t), L(t); n) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Dynamic equilibrium can be characterized by system of differential equations.

    “Consequently, the dynamic equilibrium can be characterized as the solution to the system of differential equations”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    First possibility satisfies transversality condition and yields equilibrium path.

    “The first possibility, on the other hand, satisfies the transversality condition (since asymptotically it involves r > g ), and yields an equilibrium path.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In the all-tasks-automated case (n*=0), ρ < _ρ and I(t)=N(t).

    “Because in this case capital performs all tasks, Lemma A2 implies that we must have ρ < _ ρ and I(t ) = N(t) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In interior equilibrium with n*(t)=n(t)=n∈(0,1), n > max{_n(ρ), ~n(ρ)} and Ṅ(t)=İ(t).

    “Because capital performs all automated tasks, Lemma A2 implies that n > max { _ n ( ρ), ~ n ( ρ)} and N ˙ (t) = I ˙ (t) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Lemma A2 verifies n*(t)=n > _n(ρ).

    “Lemma A2 then verifies that n * (t) = n > _ n (ρ) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Three possible equilibrium paths for ~c(t): jump to c_B; start at [0,c_B) and converge to zero; start at (c_B,∞) and diverge.

    “There are therefore three possible equilibrium paths for ~ c (t) : (i) it immediately jumps to c B and stays there; (ii) it starts at [ 0, c B ) and converges to zero; (iii) it starts at ( c B , ∞) and diverges.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Second and third possibilities violate transversality condition and resource constraint.

    “The second and third possibilities violate, respectively, the transversality condition (19) (because the capital stock would grow at the rate A k -δ , implying r = g ), and the resource constraint (when ~ c (t ) = ∞ ).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    There is a unique solution to the system, converging to full automation BGP.

    “We next show that there is a unique solution to the system, and this solution converges to the full automation BGP described in the proposition.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Generalized ideal price index condition implies R = c_u^{-1}(B^{1-σ}/(1-σ)), and thus A_K = c_u^{-1}(B^{1-σ}/(1-σ)).

    “The generalized ideal price index condition, equation (A5), then implies that R = c u -1 ( B 1-ˆ σ ____ 1-σ ) , and thus A K = c u -1 ( B 1-ˆ σ ____ 1-σ ) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    In candidate BGP, R(t) constant implies W(t)/γ(I(t)) constant, only possible if İ(t)=Δ.

    “Moreover, because in this candidate BGP R(t) is constant, the general form of the generalized ideal price index condition, (A5), implies that W(t)/γ (I(t)) must be constant too, and this is only possible if I ˙ (t) = Δ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    This candidate BGP satisfies transversality condition (19) and is unique BGP.

    “Moreover, in view of the fact that ρ + (θ -1 ) AΔ > 0 , this candidate BGP satisfies the transversality condition (19), and is indeed the unique BGP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    This allocation satisfies transversality condition, defines unique BGP.

    “Because this allocation also satisfies the transversality condition (in view of the fact that ρ + (θ -1)AΔ > 0 ), it defines a unique BGP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    Because n*(t)=_n(ρ), Ṅ(t)=Δ.

    “Because n * (t) = _ n ( ρ) , this also implies that N ˙ (t) = Δ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    To generate constant growth of wages, İ*(t)=Δ ≤ I(t), so growth rate is AΔ.

    “Thus, to generate constant growth of wages we must have I ˙ * (t) = Δ ≤ I(t) , so that the growth rate of the economy is given by AΔ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    For ρ<_ρ and n<~n(ρ), v_I(n) is positive and decreasing in n, and v_N(n) is negative and increasing in n.

    “As depicted in panel A of Figure 8 and shown in Lemma A3, in this region v I (n) is positive and decreasing in n , and v N (n) is negative and increasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Proof of global stability is similar to neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply.

    “The proof of the global stability of this unique BGP is similar to the analysis of global stability of the neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply, and for completeness, we provide the details in online Appendix B.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    This ensures unique L_B>0, and k_B=φ L_B.

    “This ensures that there exists a unique value L B > 0 that satisfies this equation, and also pins down the value of the normalized capital stock as k B = ϕ L B .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    In all-tasks-labor case n*(t)=1, ρ>ρ_max and n(t)≥1, and W(t)/γ(N(t)) constant.

    “Because labor performs all tasks, Lemma A2 now implies ρ > ρ max and n(t) ≥ 1 , while the ideal price index condition, (A5), imposes that W(t)/γ (N(t)) must be constant.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    Uniqueness and global stability follow from identical arguments to part (ii), with _n(ρ) playing role of n.

    “The uniqueness and global stability of the BGP follow from an identical arguments to part (ii), with the only modification that _ n ( ρ) plays the role of n in the preceding proof.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Euler equation implies R_B = ρ+δ+θg, and since R_B=F_K(k_B,L_B;n), k_B/L_B=φ, where φ is unique solution to F_K(φ,1;n)=ρ+δ+θg.

    “Then, the Euler equation, (17), implies R B = ρ + δ + θg , and because R B = F K ( k B , L B ; n) , we must also have k B / L B = ϕ , where ϕ is the unique solution to F K (ϕ, 1 ; n ) = ρ + δ + θg.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Then we would have ν'(0)e^{(θ-1)/θ ν(0)} < F_L(φ,1;n)/c_B, which contradicts labor supply optimality condition (18).

    “But then we would have ν ′ (0) e θ-1 ___ θ ν(0) < F L (ϕ, 1; n) ______ c B , which contradicts the labor supply optimality condition, (18).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    This implies K(t)=0 and C(t)=w_B γ(N(t)-1)L(t).

    “This implies K(t) = 0 and C(t) = w B γ (N(t) -1) L(t) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    In interior equilibrium with n*(t)=_n(ρ)>n(t), n(t)<_n(ρ) and ρ>_ρ.

    “Because capital does not immediately perform all automated tasks, Lemma A2 implies that n(t) < _ n ( ρ) and ρ > _ ρ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    BGP variables w_B, k_B, c_B, L_B, R_B are all constant.

    “These variables are, by definition, all constant.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 4:

    Left-hand side is linear and increasing in L, right-hand side decreasing in L.

    “The left-hand side of this equation is linear and increasing in L (the concavity of F in k implies that F(ϕ, 1; n) > ϕ F K (ϕ, 1; n) > (δ + g )ϕ ), while the right-hand side is decreasing in L .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § D. Proofs from Section IV

    If n < ~n(ρ) (and ρ<_ρ), κ_I v_I(n) > 0 > κ_N v_N(n). Moreover, in this region, v_I(n) is decreasing and v_N(n) is increasing in n.

    “• If n < ~ n (ρ) (and ρ < _ ρ ), we have κ I v I (n) > 0 > κ N v N (n).Moreover, in this region, v I (n) is decreasing and v N (n) is increasing in n .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § (iii) Interior Equilibrium in which Automated Tasks Are Eventually but Not

    Net output is F(k,L;n)=w_B γ(N(t)-1)L(t), depends linearly on labor and independent of capital.

    “Consequently, net output is given by F(k, L; n ) = w B γ (N(t) -1) L(t) , and thus depends linearly on labor and is independent of capital.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    Laws of motion imply existence of unique stable arm, and no equilibrium paths not along stable arm.

    “The laws of motion of the two variables, v and n , take the form shown in the phase diagram.34 This implies the existence of the unique stable arm, and also establishes 34 This can also be verified locally from the fact that the behavior of n and v near the BGP can be approximated by the linear system n ̇ = -( κ N + κ I ) G ′ (0 ) Sv and v ̇ = ρv -Q, where Q > 0 denotes the derivative of -M κ I c”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    All paths above stable arm feature v̇>0 and eventually n→0 and v→∞, v_I→∞, violating transversality condition (27).

    “In particular, all paths above the stable arm feature v ˙ > 0 and eventually n → 0 and v → ∞ , and since v N is positive, v I → ∞ .But this violates the transversality condition, (27).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    This contradicts n(t)<_n(ρ).

    “But this contradicts n(t) < _ n ( ρ ) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    For ρ>_ρ and n(t)≤_n(ρ), n*(t)=_n(ρ) and v_N(n)=v_N(_n(ρ)), v_I(n)=v_I(_n(ρ)).

    “Suppose n(t) ≤ _ n (ρ) .Then, we have n * (t ) = _ n (ρ) and there- fore v N (n ) = v N ( _ n ( ρ )) and v I (n) = v I ( _ n (ρ)) .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There exists threshold ˇS such that BGP is locally stable for S<ˇS, and conclusions follow setting _S = min{~S, ˆS, S ̆, ˇS}.

    “Online Appendix B shows that there exists a threshold ˇ S such that the BGP in this case is locally stable for S < ˇ S , and thus the conclusions of the proposition follow setting _ S = min { ~ S , ˆ S , S ˘ , ˇ S } .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingown data
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    This follows from κ_I v_I(n) cuts κ_N v_N(n) from below at n_B.

    “This follows from the fact that κ I v I (n) cuts κ N v N (n) from below at n B as shown in Figure 8.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    Therefore, all scientists employed to create new tasks, so ṅ>0 (uniformly bounded away from zero).

    “Therefore, in this region this region we always have that all scientists will be employed to create new tasks, and thus n ̇ > 0 (and is uniformly bounded away from zero).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    All paths below stable arm feature v̇<0 and eventually n→1 and v→-∞, v_N→∞, violating transversality condition.

    “Similarly, all paths below the stable arm feature v ˙ < 0 and eventually n → 1 and v → -∞ , and thus v N → ∞ , once again violating the transversality condition.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § PROOF OF PROPOSITION 6:

    When θ=0, R=ρ+δ, capital adjusts immediately and equilibrium stock only depends on n, unique state variable.

    “Because θ = 0 , we also have R = ρ + δ , and capital adjusts immediately and its equilibrium stock only depends on n , which becomes the unique state variable of the model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    The relationship shown in Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980.

    “The relationship shown in Figure 1 controls for the demographic composition of employment in the occupation in 1980.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    A wave of automation pushes down the effective cost of producing with labor, discouraging further efforts to automate additional tasks and encouraging creation of new tasks.

    “This stability result highlights a crucial new force: a wave of automation pushes down the effective cost of producing with labor, discouraging further efforts to automate additional tasks and encouraging the creation of new tasks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § By Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo*

    The same relationship between new job titles and employment growth holds for 1990-2015 and 2000-2015, and is present without controls and when controlling for average education and structural changes in the US economy.

    “In online Appendix B, we show that the same relationship holds between the share of new job titles in 1990 (in 2000) and employment growth from 1990 to 2015 (from 2000 to 2015), and that these patterns are present without any controls and when we control for average education in the occupation and the structural changes in the US economy as well.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Balanced Growth

    Constant growth requires productivity gains from new tasks to be exponential.

    “constant growth requires productivity gains from new tasks to be exponential.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § PROOF:

    Alternatively, faster automation might be driven by a deceleration in N(t), in which case there would also be low growth of aggregate output and wages.

    “Alternatively, it might be driven by a deceleration in the rate at which N(t) advances, in which case we would also have low growth of aggregate output and wages.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The asymptotic stability of the interior BGP implies powerful market forces push the economy toward balanced growth.

    “The asymptotic stability of the interior BGP implies that there are powerful market forces pushing the economy toward balanced growth.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Increases in n beyond its BGP value trigger further automation, while lower values of n encourage creation of new tasks, ensuring stability of the unique BGP.

    “This ensures that increases in n beyond its BGP value trigger further automation, while lower values of n encourage the creation of new tasks, ensuring the stability of the unique BGP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In the no automation BGP, capital becomes redundant, and growth is driven by endogenous technological change increasing labor's productivity as in standard quality ladder models.

    “In this BGP, capital becomes redundant, and growth is driven by endogenous technological change increasing labor's productivity as in the standard quality ladder models such as Aghion and Howitt (1992) or Grossman and Helpman (1991).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Aghion and Howitt (1992)

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Grossman and Helpman (1991)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The fact that v_N(n) is increasing in n creates a force toward multiplicity of BGPs, while v_I(n) increasing pushes toward uniqueness and stability.

    “We will see next that the fact that v N (n) is increasing in n creates a force toward multiplicity of BGPs, while the fact that v I (n) is increasing in n pushes toward uniqueness and stability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Certain changes in the environment, such as a large increase in B or a decline in ρ, can shift the economy from the region with a unique interior BGP to the region with full automation, with disastrous consequences for labor.

    “certain changes in the environment (for example, a large increase in B or a decline in ρ ) can shift the economy from the region in which there is a unique interior BGP to the region with full automation, with disastrous consequences for labor.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    The ratio γH(i)/γL(i,t) is increasing in i, which implies high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in higher-indexed tasks.

    “The ratio γ H (i)/ γ L (i, t) is increasing in i , which implies that high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in higher-indexed tasks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § B. Creative Destruction of Profits

    The alternative structure with creative destruction has similar implications for the BGP but necessitates more demanding conditions to guarantee its uniqueness and stability.

    “We will see that this alternative structure has similar implications for the BGP, but necessitates more demanding conditions to guarantee its uniqueness and stability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, the creation of new tasks, which leads to a permanently higher level of n, increases inequality in the short run but reduces it in the long run.

    “The creation of new tasks, which leads to a permanently higher level of n , increases inequality in the short run but reduces it in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    If ξ = 1, a permanent increase in I raises the wage gap WH/WL in both the short and the long run.

    “a permanent increase in I raises the wage gap in both the short and the long run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, automation increases inequality both in the short and the long run.

    “Consequently, automation increases inequality both in the short and the long run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Permanent changes in the ability of society to create new automation technologies trigger self-correcting dynamics but take the economy toward a new BGP with lower employment and labor share, and may also involve slower productivity growth.

    “Permanent changes in the ability of society to create new automation technologies trigger self-correcting dynamics as well, but these will take us toward a new BGP with lower employment and labor share, and may also involve slower productivity growth in the process.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ < 1, low-skill workers are progressively squeezed into a smaller and smaller set of tasks, and wage inequality grows without bound.

    “As a result, low-skill workers are progressively squeezed into a smaller and smaller set of tasks, and wage inequality grows without bound.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, in the long run inequality is decreasing in n because a higher n translates into a greater range of tasks for low-skill workers.

    “In the long run, inequality is decreasing in n (because a higher n translates into a greater range of tasks for low-skill workers).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    If ξ = 1, a permanent increase in N raises the wage gap WH/WL in the short run but reduces it in the long run.

    “a permanent increase in N raises the wage gap W H (t )/ W L (t) in the short run, but reduces it in the long run”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    Inequality may be high following a period of adjustment in which the labor share first declines due to increases in automation and then recovers due to the introduction and later standardization of new tasks.

    “These observations suggest that inequality may be high following a period of adjustment in which the labor share first declines (due to increases in automation), and then recovers (due to the introduction and later standardization of new tasks).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Starting from the interior BGP, the effects of small increases in automation technology reverse themselves over time, restoring employment and the labor share back to their initial values.

    “Starting from the interior BGP, the effects of (small) increases in automation technology will reverse themselves over time, restoring employment and the labor share back to their initial values.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, automation and the creation of new tasks still reduce the relative earnings of low-skill workers in the short run, but their long-run implications are very different.

    “In this case, automation and the creation of new tasks still reduce the relative earnings of low-skill workers in the short run, but their long-run implications are very different.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § ASSUMPTION 1″ :

    When ξ = 1, because new tasks become standardized, they can over time be as productively used by low-skill workers.

    “Because new tasks become standardized, they can over time be as productively used by low-skill workers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § V. Conclusion

    By reducing the effective cost of labor in the least complex tasks, automation discourages further automation and generates a self-correcting force toward stability.

    “by reducing the effective cost of labor in the least complex tasks, automation discourages further automation and generates a self-correcting force toward stability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § V. Conclusion

    In our model, because the supply of labor is elastic, automation tends to reduce employment, while the creation of new tasks increases employment.

    “In our model, because the supply of labor is elastic, automation also tends to reduce employment, while the creation of new tasks increases employment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § V. Conclusion

    If in the long run capital is very cheap relative to labor, automation technologies will advance rapidly and labor will become redundant.

    “If in the long run capital is very cheap relative to labor, automation technologies will advance rapidly and labor will become redundant.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § C. Welfare

    Even though automation expands productivity, a force which always raises welfare, it also reduces employment.

    “Even though automation expands productivity, a force which always raises welfare, it also reduces employment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § V. Conclusion

    When the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to capital increases, for example as a result of automation, the wage relative to the rental rate and the labor share decline, and the equilibrium wage rate may also fall.

    “when the equilibrium range of tasks allocated to capital increases (for example, as a result of automation), the wage relative to the rental rate and the labor share decline, and the equilibrium wage rate may also fall.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § V. Conclusion

    The task-based framework implies that as a factor becomes cheaper, this not only influences the range of tasks allocated to it, but also generates incentives for the introduction of technologies that allow firms to utilize this factor more intensively.

    “The task-based framework, differently from the standard models of directed technological change based on factor-augmenting technologies , implies that as a factor becomes cheaper, this not only influences the range of tasks allocated to it, but also generates incentives for the introduction of technologies that allow firms to utilize this factor more intensively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § V. Conclusion

    In this case, under reasonable assumptions, the dynamic equilibrium is unique and converges to the BGP.

    “Moreover in this case, under reasonable assumptions, the dynamic equilibrium is unique and converges to the BGP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § B. Creative Destruction of Profits

    As more tasks are automated, the rental rate remains unchanged and newly-automated tasks will be replaced less frequently, so automating more tasks renders further automation more profitable.

    “As a result, automating more tasks renders further automation more profitable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § C. Welfare

    Assuming labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices, the decentralized equilibrium involves too much effort devoted to improving automation relative to what the social planner would like, because the social planner recognizes that additional automation has a negative effect through employment.

    “assuming that labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices, the decentralized equilibrium involves too much effort being devoted to improving automation relative to what she would like , because the social planner recognizes that additional automation has a negative effect through employment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § C. Welfare

    With labor market frictions, the reduction in employment resulting from automation has a negative impact on welfare, and this negative effect can exceed the positive impact from productivity gains, turning automation, on net, into a negative for welfare.

    “Crucially, the reduction in employment resulting from automation now has a negative impact on welfare, and this negative effect can exceed the positive impact following from the productivity gains, turning automation, on net, into a negative for welfare.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § V. Conclusion

    In practice, the acquisition of new skills may need to go hand-in-hand with workers shifting to newer tasks, and the inability of the educational system to adapt to the requirements of these new tasks could become a bottleneck and prevent the rebound in the demand for labor following a wave of automation.

    “In practice, the acquisition of new skills may need to go hand-in-hand with workers shifting to newer tasks, and the inability of the educational system to adapt to the requirements of these new tasks could become a bottleneck and prevent the rebound in the demand for labor following a wave of automation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
148 of 148
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Labor has a strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index (and in new and more complex tasks).

    “ASSUMPTION 1: γ(i) is strictly increasing.”
    “Assumption 1 implies that labor has strict comparative advantage in tasks with a higher index”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The demand for labor and capital is homothetic, ensured by either η→0 or ζ=1.

    “ASSUMPTION 2: One of the following two conditions holds: (i) η → 0 , or (ii) ζ = 1 .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The capital stock is not too large: K < K_bar, where K_bar is such that R = W/γ(N).

    “ASSUMPTION 3: We have K < _ K , where _ K is such that R = W _ γ(N) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.

    “we introduce heterogeneity in skills, and assume that skilled labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks, which we view as a natural assumption.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Capital has the same productivity in all tasks.

    “A simplifying feature of the technology described in equation (3) is that capital has the same productivity in all tasks.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Non-automated tasks can be produced with just labor.

    “Another simplifying assumption is that non-automated tasks can be produced with just labor.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    New tasks created at N immediately replace tasks located at N-1.

    “we have simplified the exposition by imposing that new tasks created at N immediately replace tasks located at N -1”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The utility cost of labor supply is continuously differentiable, increasing, convex, and satisfies ν″(L) + (θ -1) × (ν ′(L)) 2 /θ > 0.

    “which we assume to be continuously differentiable, increasing, and convex, and to satisfy ν″(L) + (θ -1) × (ν ′(L)) 2 /θ > 0”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No comprehensive framework exists incorporating automation effects and potential countervailing forces.

    “Yet, we lack a comprehensive framework incorporating such effects, as well as potential countervailing forces.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Labor market frictions cause the wage rate to be above the opportunity cost of labor.

    “when the wage rate is above the opportunity cost of labor (due to labor market frictions)”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The representative household's dynamic preferences are given by equation (14) with discount rate ρ > 0.

    “We assume that the representative household's dynamic preferences are given by (14) ∫ 0 ∞ e -ρt u(C(t), L(t)) dt, where u(C(t), L(t)) is as defined in equation ( 4) and ρ > 0 is the discount rate.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The comparative advantage schedule satisfies Assumption 1′: γ(i)=e^{Ai} with A > 0.

    “ASSUMPTION 1′: γ(i) satisfies (15) γ(i) = e Ai with A > 0.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The path of technology {I(t), N(t)} is exogenous.

    “The path of technology, represented by {I(t), N(t)} , is exogenous”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 4: σ̂ > ζ.

    “ASSUMPTION 4: ˆ σ > ζ .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Intellectual property rights to each intermediate are held by a technology monopolist who can produce at marginal cost μψ, with μ∈(0,1), ψ>0; a competitive fringe can replicate at higher marginal cost ψ; μ is such that the unconstrained monopoly price exceeds ψ.

    “we deviate from our earlier assumption of a perfectly competitive market for intermediates, and assume that ( intellectual) property rights to each intermediate, q(i) , are held by a technology monopolist who can produce it at the marginal cost μψ in terms of the final good, where μ ∈ (0, 1) and ψ > 0 .We also assume that this technology can be copied by a fringe of competitive firms, which can Re”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Developing a new intermediate that automates or replaces an existing task is viewed as infringement; the firm must compensate the existing patent holder, with compensation via a take-it-or-leave-it offer.

    “We assume that developing a new intermediate that automates or replaces an existing task is viewed as an infringement of the patent of the technology previously used to produce that task.For that reason, a firm must compensate the technology monopolist who owns the property rights over the production of the intermediate that it is replacing.We also assume that this compensation takes place with”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There is a fixed supply of S scientists allocated to automation or creation of new tasks.

    “There is a fixed supply of S scientists, which will be allocated to automation ( S I (t) ≥ 0 ) or the creation of new tasks ( S N (t) ≥ 0 ), so that S I (t) + S N (t) ≤ S.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    When a scientist is employed in automation, she automates κ_I tasks per unit time; in creation, she creates κ_N new tasks per unit time.

    “When a scientist is employed in automation, she automates κ I tasks per unit of time and receives a wage W I S (t) .When she is employed in the creation of new tasks, she creates κ N new tasks per unit of time and receives a wage W N S (t) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Automation and creation of new tasks proceed in the order of the task index i.

    “We assume that automation and the creation of new tasks proceed in the order of the task index i .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Scientists differ in cost of effort: working in automation costs χ_I j Y(t), creation costs χ_N j Y(t); the distribution of χ_I j - χ_N j is smooth and increasing G over [-υ,υ], with υ small enough that all scientists work.

    “we assume that scientists differ in the cost of effort: when working in automation, scientist j incurs a cost of χ I j Y(t) , and when working in the creation of new tasks, she incurs a cost of χ N j Y(t) .26 Consequently, scientist j will work in automation if”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Normalization G(0)=κ_N/(κ_I+κ_N).

    “For notational convenience, we also adopt the normalization G(0) = κ N _ κ I + κ N .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In equilibrium n(t) > max{n̅(ρ), ~n(ρ)}, so that I*(t)=I(t) and newly-automated tasks start being produced with capital immediately.

    “To simplify the exposition, let us assume that in this equilibrium n(t) > max { n ̅ (ρ), ~ n (ρ)} , so that I * (t) = I(t) and newly-automated tasks start being produced with capital immediately.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    High-skill workers have a comparative advantage in new tasks.

    “The assumption that high-skill workers have a comparative advantage in new tasks receives support from the data.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There are two types of workers: low-skill workers with time-varying productivity γL(i,t) in task i, and high-skill workers with productivity γH(i).

    “we assume that there are two types of workers: low-skill workers with time-varying productivity γ L (i, t) in task i , and high-skill workers with productivity γ H (i) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 1″: productivities are given by γH(i)=e^{A_H i}, γL(i,t)=e^{ξ A_H i} Γ(t-T(i)), where Γ is increasing with lim Γ=1, ξ∈(0,1], and T(i) is the time task i was first introduced.

    “The productivities of high-skill and low-skill workers are given by γ H (i ) = e A H i , γ L (i, t ) = e ξ A H i Γ(t -T(i)), where Γ is increasing with lim x→∞ Γ(x) = 1 , ξ ∈ (0, 1] , and T(i) denotes the time when task i was first introduced.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    New technologies do not infringe the patents of the products that they replace.

    “new technologies do not infringe the patents of the products that they replace”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The function ι(n(t)) is nondecreasing.

    “the function ι(n(t )) is included and assumed to be nondecreasing”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There exists an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply schedule L_qs(ω) which constrains employment L ≤ L_qs(ω).

    “suppose that there exists an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply schedule, L qs (ω) , which constrains the level of employment, so that L ≤ L qs (ω)”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 2′: one of three conditions holds: (i) η→0; (ii) ζ=1; or (iii) |σ-ζ| < ...

    “ASSUMPTION 2′: One of the following three conditions holds:”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Labor has a comparative advantage in new tasks.

    “it is assumed that labor has a comparative advantage in these new tasks”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Automation is modeled as the endogenous expansion of the set of tasks that can be performed by capital, replacing labor in tasks that it previously produced.

    “Automation is modeled as the (endogenous) expansion of the set of tasks that can be performed by capital, replacing labor in tasks that it previously produced.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The new type of technological change complementing labor takes the form of the introduction of new, more complex versions of existing tasks.

    “this takes the form of the introduction of new, more complex versions of existing tasks”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The supply of high-skill labor is fixed at H and the supply of low-skill labor is fixed at L.

    “assume that the supply of high-skill labor is fixed at H and the supply of low-skill labor is fixed at L”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Technology evolves exogenously with Ndot=Idot=Δ and n(t)=n > max{nbar(ρ), ntilde(ρ)} and A_H(1-θ)Δ < ρ.

    “Suppose also that technology evolves exogenously with N ˙ = I ˙ = Δ and n(t) = n > max{ _ n ( ρ), ~ n ( ρ)} (and A H (1 -θ )Δ < ρ ).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    ρ > ρbar and κI/κN > κbar.

    “Suppose that ρ > _ ρ and κ I / κ N > _ κ .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumptions 1′, 2, and 4 hold, and there is creative destruction of profits.

    “Suppose that ρ > _ ρ , Assumptions 1′ , 2, and 4 hold, and there is creative destruction of profits.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The quasi-labor supply schedule L_qs(ω) is increasing in ω, has elasticity εL > 0, and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν'(L).

    “Suppose also that the quasi-labor supply schedule L qs (ω) is increasing in ω , has an elasticity ~ ε L > 0 , and is binding in the sense that W/C > ν ′ (L) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices.

    “assuming that labor market frictions also constrain the social planner's choices”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 2′ holds.

    “We prove this proposition under the more general Assumption 2′ .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 2 holds.

    “Under Assumption 2, this last expression further simplifies to A K = B as claimed in the text.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumptions 1′, 2′, and 4 hold.

    “Suppose that Assumptions 1′ , 2′ , and 4 hold.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Assumption 3 holds.

    “This is ensured by Assumption 3, and avoids the need for additional notation at this point.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    θ=0.

    “Because θ = 0 , we also have R = ρ + δ , and capital adjusts immediately and its equilibrium stock only depends on n , which becomes the unique state variable of the model.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    S < ~S.

    “Suppose that S < ~ S so that Lemma A3 applies.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    S < S˘.

    “By continuity there exists a threshold S ˘ such that, for S < S ˘ , the locus for v ̇ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point n B”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    S < ˇS.

    “Online Appendix B shows that there exists a threshold ˇ S such that the BGP in this case is locally stable for S < ˇ S”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    ρ+(θ-1)AΔ>0.

    “Finally, the transversality condition, (19), is satisfied given the condition ρ + (θ -1 ) AΔ > 0 in this part of the proposition.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    ρ+(θ-1)Δ>0.

    “Thus, to generate a constant wage, aggregate output and capital growth, we must have N ˙ (t) = Δ , with ρ + (θ -1)Δ > 0”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    g=0.

    “When g = 0 , the locus for v ˙ = 0 crosses zero from below at a unique point”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    n(t)≤_n(ρ).

    “Suppose n(t) ≤ _ n (ρ) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    n(t)>_n(ρ).

    “Suppose, instead, that n(t) > _ n ( ρ ) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    n<~n(ρ).

    “Suppose that n < ~ n ( ρ) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    n≥max{_n,~n}.

    “• If n ≥ max { _ n , ~ n } , both v N (n) and v I (n) are positive and increasing in n ;”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    n<~n(ρ) and ρ<_ρ.

    “• If n < ~ n (ρ) (and ρ < _ ρ ), we have κ I v I (n) > 0 > κ N v N (n).”
54 of 54

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Much of these algorithms' potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases, including the creation of new types of work.

    “As with other general-purpose technologies, much of these algorithms' potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases, including the creation of new types of work (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018;Autor et al., 2022a).”

    From GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models (2023) · cites this paper as Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018

    The paper’s opening discussion describes new tasks arising alongside digital technologies and AI, and the Conclusion explains how technological change can create tasks that complement labor. This supports the creation-of-new-work part of the claim, but the paper does not establish that much of these algorithms’ potential will emerge across a broad range of economically valuable use cases. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • AI can complement workers by making them more efficient, helping them to produce higher quality work, or enabling them to take on new value-adding tasks.

    “There is cause for optimism: AI can complement workers by making them more efficient, helping them to produce higher quality work, or enabling them to take on new value-adding tasks (72–74).”

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • An increase in I cannot increase n when n = N − I

    Minor

    Holding N fixed, an increase in I lowers n by definition. Proposition 5 describes an increase in n caused by an increase in I.

  • Eventual-automation BGP places the equilibrium threshold above the technology threshold

    Minor

    The paper defines the equilibrium threshold as I* = min{I, ~I}, so I* cannot exceed I. Proposition 4's eventual-automation case states the opposite.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Nelson Richard R, 1966, American Economic Review 56 (½), 69

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P.
Affiliations
  • Department of Economics, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02142 (email: )
  • Boston University (US)
Venue
American Economic Review
Published
2018-06-01
Volume
108
Issue
6
Pages
1488-1542
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W3125498346
Cited by
3,121
References
66
Citations by year
2026: 698 · 2025: 667 · 2024: 570 · 2023: 371 · 2022: 295 · 2021: 218 · 2020: 141 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
FWCI
185.65
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
Keywords
automation, task creation, labor share, employment, economic growth, capital accumulation, endogenous innovation, balanced growth path, wage effects, skill heterogeneity, income inequality, technological change

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.

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