The lag structure between particulate air pollution and respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 10 US cities
Abstract
To assess differences in the lag structure pattern between particulate matter < 10 microns/100 microns in diameter (PM10) and cause-specific mortality, we performed a time-series analysis in 10 US cities using generalized additive Poisson regressions in each city; nonparametric smooth functions were used to control for long time trend, weather, and day of the week. The PM10 effect was estimated based on its daily mean, 2-day moving average, and the cumulative 7-day effect by means of an unconstrained distributed lag model. A 10-microgram/m3 increase in the 7-day mean of PM10 was associated with increases in deaths due to pneumonia (2.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 3.9), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.7%, 95% CI: 0.1, 3.3), and all cardiovascular diseases (1.0%, 95% CI: 0.6, 1.4). A 10-microgram/m3 increase in the 2-day mean of PM10 was associated with a 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.1) increase in deaths from myocardial infarction. When the distributed lag was assessed, two different patterns could be observed: respiratory deaths were more affected by air pollution levels on the previous days, whereas cardiovascular deaths were more affected by same-day pollution. These results contribute to the overall efforts so far in understanding how exposure to air pollution promotes adverse health effects.
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In Shanghai, PM2.5 was more strongly associated with respiratory mortality than with cardiovascular mortality.
“Consistent with several previous reports (Braga et al. 2001; Penttinen et al. 2004; Zanobetti et al. 2003), we found that the association of PM2.5 with respiratory mortality was stronger than with cardiovascular mortality.”
From Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai, China (2007) · cites this paper as Braga et al. 2001
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- Authors
- Luís Ferreira Braga, A., Zanobetti, A., & Schwartz, J.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Schwartz, Joel
- Venue
- Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
- Published
- 2001-11
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 927-933
- ISSN
- 1076-2752 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2072650322
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2025: 4 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 4.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES0002, P30ES000002)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
- Keywords
- particulate matter, PM10, air pollution, lag structure, respiratory mortality, cardiovascular mortality, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, distributed lag models, urban air quality, air pollution health effects
- MeSH terms
- Air Pollutants, Cardiovascular Diseases, Environmental Monitoring, Humans, Particle Size, Regression Analysis, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Risk Factors, Time Factors, United States, Urban Population, Weather, Poisson Distribution, Statistics, Nonparametric, Epidemiological Monitoring
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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