Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?
Abstract
We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7°C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.
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There is an upward trend in the total number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, but it is unclear if it is due to changes in the observational system or due to climate change.
“Thus, there is an upward trend in the total number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, but it is unclear if it is due to changes in the observational system or due to climate change.15”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [15]
Another study concluded that hurricane counts were increasing along with sea surface temperatures.
“whereas another study 15 concluded that hurricane counts were increasing along with sea surface temperatures.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [15]
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- Authors
- Holland, G. J., & Webster, P. J.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Webster, Peter J
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2007-07-30
- Volume
- 365
- Issue
- 1860
- Pages
- 2695-2716
- ISSN
- 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2962
- OpenAlex
- W2153453581
- Cited by
- 304
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2025: 3 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 22.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- tropical cyclones, hurricanes, North Atlantic, sea surface temperature, long-period variability, tipping points, global warming, hurricane intensity
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