Cited by 304Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones ResearchClimate variability and modelsGeology and Paleoclimatology Research

Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

Holland, Greg J, Webster, Peter J·2007·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Abstract

We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7°C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.

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Crossref · 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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Authors
Holland, G. J., & Webster, P. J.
Affiliations
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author
Webster, Peter J
Venue
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Published
2007-07-30
Volume
365
Issue
1860
Pages
2695-2716
ISSN
  • 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
  • 1471-2962
OpenAlex
W2153453581
Cited by
304
References
52
Citations by year
2025: 3 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 30
FWCI
22.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords
tropical cyclones, hurricanes, North Atlantic, sea surface temperature, long-period variability, tipping points, global warming, hurricane intensity

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