A More General Framework for Understanding Atlantic Hurricane Variability and Trends
Open accessAbstract
Atlantic hurricane variability on decadal and interannual time scales is reconsidered in a framework based on a leading mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability known as the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). It is shown that a large part of the variability of overall “hurricane activity,” which depends on the number of storms in a season, their duration, and their intensity, can be explained by systematic shifts in the cyclogenesis regions. These shifts are strongly correlated with the AMM on interannual as well as multidecadal time scales. It is suggested that the AMM serves to unify a number of previously documented relationships between hurricanes and Atlantic regional climate variability.
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Fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic north-south SST gradient (i.e., the Meridional Mode) have been linked to hurricane activity and to changes in rainfall over Africa and South America.
“In addition, fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic north-south SST gradient (i.e., the Meridional Mode) have been linked to hurricane activity and to changes in rainfall over Africa and South America [Kossin and Vimont, 2007;Hastenrath and Heller, 1977].”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Kossin and Vimont, 2007
The ‘Atlantic Meridional Mode’ section identifies a meridional SST gradient as a feature of the mode and links it to hurricane variability and rainfall variations in the Sahel region of West Africa. The passages do not establish the claimed link to rainfall changes in South America (page numbers unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.87)
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- Authors
- Kossin, J. P., & Vimont, D. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kossin, James P.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2007-11
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1767-1782
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2034219934
- Cited by
- 277
- References
- 120
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 13.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0614812, 0435694)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Atlantic hurricanes, Atlantic Meridional Mode, decadal variability, interannual variability, multidecadal variability
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