The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink
Abstract
This article investigates whether certain factors pertaining to the process of foreign policy decision making have a measurable, qualitative effect on foreign policy outcomes. The research is grounded in the groupthink literature but incorporates different dimensions of similar underlying notions from other international relations areas as well. Three different types of process factors are investigated: situational factors, such as stress and time constraints; factors associated with the structure of the group; and information processing factors. We test the influence of these factors on two types of outcomes—a decision's effect on national interests and its effect on the level of international conflict. We investigate this link in 31 cases of decision from 1975 through 1993. Scores for the outcome variables are based on survey responses from 21 foreign policy experts. For the process variables, we develop sets of operational definitions and then code each case based on extensive reading of case-study materials. OLS regression models are used to assess the hypotheses. We find that situation variables matter very little in terms of affecting outcomes and quality of information processing. On the other hand, both group structural factors and information processing are significantly related to outcomes in terms of national interests and level of international conflict.
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Group insulation is the most predictive groupthink antecedent.
“Existing findings point out that group insulation is the most predictive groupthink antecedent [13, 30, 42].”
From Closed-mindedness and insulation in groupthink: their effects and the devil’s advocacy as a preventive measure (2021) · cites this paper as [42]
Insulation is a consistent groupthink predictor, conforming with existing findings.
“simulation results also demonstrate insulation as a consistent groupthink predictor which conforms with existing findings [13, 30, 42].”
From Closed-mindedness and insulation in groupthink: their effects and the devil’s advocacy as a preventive measure (2021) · cites this paper as [42]
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- Authors
- Schafer, M., & Crichlow, S.
- Affiliations
- Louisiana State University (US)
- West Virginia University (US)
- ORCID
- Schafer, Mark
- Venue
- International Studies Quarterly
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2002-03
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 45-68
- ISSN
- 0020-8833 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2478
- OpenAlex
- W2099504027
- Cited by
- 59
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 21.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Studies Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Civil War Book Review (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › History and International Relations
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Keywords
- foreign policy decision-making, groupthink, decision processes, decision outcomes, group structure, information processing, situational factors, time constraints, national interests, international conflict, decision quality
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