Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
Open accessAbstract
This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partial versus economy-wide—and in how they represent technology and the behavior of supply and demand in markets. The CGE models are “deep” structural models in that they explicitly solve the maximization problem of consumers and producers, assuming utility maximization and profit maximization with production/cost functions that include all factor inputs. The PE models divide into two groups on the supply side: (1) “shallow” structural models, which essentially specify area/yield supply functions with no explicit maximization behavior, and (2) “deep” structural models that provide a detailed activity-analysis specification of technology and explicit optimizing behavior by producers. While the models vary in their specifications of technology, both within and between the PE and CGE families, we consider two stylized theoretical models to compare the behavior of crop yields and supply functions in CGE models with their behavior in shallow structural PE models. We find that the theoretical responsiveness of supply to changes in prices can be similar, depending on parameter choices that define the behavior of implicit supply functions over the domain of applicability defined by the common scenarios used in the AgMIP comparisons. In practice, however, the applied models are more complex and differ in their empirical sensitivity to variations in specification—comparability of results given parameter choices is an empirical question. To illustrate the issues, sensitivity analysis is done with one global CGE model, MAGNET, to indicate how the results vary with different specification of technical change, and how they compare with the results from PE models.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Systematic model comparisons showed that structural differences in assumptions on technological change, the way food demand is modelled, and the type of model are important factors explaining differences in projections.
“Systematic model comparisons showed that structural differences between assumptions on technological change 47 , the way food demand is modelled 48 and the type of model 45 are important factors that explain differences in projections.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [47]
Cites
Endogenous Technological Change
Romer, P. M. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261725 · Cited by 17,711 · see citing works
Endogenous Technological Change
Romer, P. (1989) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w3210 · Cited by 13,312 · see citing works
Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets
Havlík, P., Schneider, U., Schmid, E., Böttcher, H., Fritz, S., Skalský, R., Aoki, K., Cara, S. D., Kindermann, G., Kraxner, F., et al. (2011) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.030 · Cited by 875 · see citing works
Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I. D., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., Tokgöz, S., Zhu, T., Sulser, T. B., Ringler, C., et al. (2010) · International Food Policy Research Institute eBooks · doi:10.2499/9780896291867 · Cited by 578 · see citing works
The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12089 · Cited by 561 · see citing works
Self-citationRethinking international trade
Krugman, P., Smith, A., Ulph, D., et al. (1996) · Journal of Macroeconomics · doi:10.1016/s0164-0704(96)80022-x · Cited by 526 · see citing works
Rethinking International Trade
Krugman, P. (1990) · The MIT Press eBooks · doi:10.7551/mitpress/5933.001.0001 · Cited by 411 · see citing works
Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium
Uzawa, H. (1961) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.2307/2295709 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G. C., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlík, P., Heyhoe, E., Mason-D’Croz, D., Popp, A., et al. (2013) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12090 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Self-citationProductivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing
Martin, W. J., & Mitra, D. (2001) · Economic Development and Cultural Change · doi:10.1086/452509 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
von Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12086 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citationPolicy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models
Devaragan, S., Lewis, J. D., & Robinson, S. (1990) · Journal of Policy Modeling · doi:10.1016/0161-8938(90)90002-v · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Self-citationCompetitiveness, Convergence and International Specialization.
van Ark, B., Dollar, D., & Wolff, E. N. (1994) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2235470 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Covergence of Industry Labor Productivity among Advanced Economies, 1963-1982
Dollar, D., & Wolff, E. N. (1988) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/1935817 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Dietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Lotze‐Campen, H., Popp, A., & Müller, C. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Self-citationA New Proof of Uzawa's Steady-State Growth Theorem
Jones, C. I., & Scrimgeour, D. (2008) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.90.1.180 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment
van Tongeren, F., van Meijl, H., & Surry, Y. (2001) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00060.x · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Competitiveness, convergence, and international specialization
Tybout, J. R. (1994) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/0022-1996(94)90049-3 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and SupplyPreprint
Sands, R. D., Jones, C., Marshall, E., et al. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.186137 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationPolicy Lessons from Two-Sector ModelsPreprint
Devarajan, S., Lewis, J., Robinson, S., et al. (1990) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.198566 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationTrade and tradability: exports, imports, and factor markets in the Salter-Swan modelPreprint
Robinson, S., & Thierfelder, K. (2002) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationThe economics of productivityPreprint
Wolff, E. N., & Blaug, M. (1997) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 9 · see citing works
CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approachPreprint
Peter, W. H., Pavel, C., & Delincé, J. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.2791/60495 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Sectoral TFP developments in the OECDPreprint
Kets, W., & Lejour, A. (2003) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339 · see citing works
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002 · Cited by 1,070 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F. L., Lotze-Campen, H., et al. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x · Cited by 564 · see citing works
Self-citationvon Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12086 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citationContrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security
Godfray, H. C. J., & Robinson, S. (2015) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grv006 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationInvestment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways
Palazzo, A., Valin, H., Batka, M., & Havlík, P. (2019) · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8744 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Robinson, S., van Meijl, H., Willenbockel, D., Valin, H., Fujimori, S., Masui, T., Sands, R., Wise, M., Calvin, K., Havlik, P., Mason d'Croz, D., Tabeau, A., Kavallari, A., Schmitz, C., Dietrich, J. P., & von Lampe, M.
- Affiliations
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI); Wageningen University and Research Centre; 2585 DB, The Hague The Netherlands
- University of Sussex (GB)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Economic Research Service; US Department of Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave; SW, Mailstop 1800 Washington DC 20250 USA
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria
- International Food Policy Research Institute; 2033 K St., NW Washington DC 20006-1002 USA
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; 2, rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 France
- Corresponding author
- Willenbockel, Dirk
- ORCID
- Venue
- Agricultural Economics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-12-02
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 21-35
- ISSN
- 0169-5150 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2107318809
- Cited by
- 92
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 24.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- Agricultural Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Agricultural economics and policies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- partial equilibrium model, computable general equilibrium model, producer behavior, technological change, MAGNET model, model comparability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
