The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races
Open accessAbstract
The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections, pointing out that the incumbent party is more likely to win very close elections in the United States House of Representatives in recent periods. In this article, we examine whether similar patterns occur in other electoral settings, including the U.S. House in other time periods, statewide, state legislative, and mayoral races in the U.S. and national or local elections in nine other countries. No other case exhibits this pattern. We also cast doubt on suggested explanations for incumbent success in close House races. We conclude that the assumptions behind the RD design are likely to be met in a wide variety of electoral settings and offer a set of best practices for RD researchers going forward.
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Cites
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Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test,
McCrary, J. (2008) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.005 · Cited by 3,600
Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design
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Anderson, M. L. (2008) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/016214508000000841 · Cited by 2,410
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Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U. S. House
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Cited by
Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities
Keele, L. J., & Titiunik, R. (2015) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpu014 · Cited by 391
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Baragwanath, K., & Bayi, E. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1917874117 · Cited by 230
Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform
Mummolo, J. (2018) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/694393 · Cited by 161
Causal Panel Analysis under Parallel Trends: Lessons from a Large Reanalysis Study
CHIU, A., LAN, X., LIU, Z., & XU, Y. (2026) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055425000243 · Cited by 48
Lookahead Bias in Pretrained Language Models
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Metadata
- Authors
- Eggers, A. C., Fowler, A., Hainmueller, J., Hall, A. B., & Snyder, J. M.
- Venue
- American Journal of Political Science
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-09-02
- Volume
- 59
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 259-274
- ISSN
- 0092-5853 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-5907
- OpenAlex
- W2323752438
- Cited by
- 423
- References
- 49
- FWCI
- 261.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Eggers, A. C., Fowler, A., Hainmueller, J., Hall, A. B., & Snyder, J. M. (2015). On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races. American Journal of Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12127
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