Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria
Open accessAbstract
Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Research indicates that Red List categories based on projected climate-change extinction risk are more reliable than earlier believed.
“Finally, studies have shown Red List categorizations reflecting projected extinction risk from climate change to be more robust than was previously thought 6 .”
From Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers (2016) · cites this paper as [6]
The Introduction (page not supplied) describes earlier doubts about whether Red List criteria can detect climate-change extinction risk. The Factors influencing performance section reports that assessments for later in the twenty-first century were robust to missing data, but the study examined one amphibian species and cautions that early detection can depend on assessing criterion E. The claim overgeneralizes that qualified finding to Red List categorizations broadly. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., & Schapire, R. E. (2005) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026 · Cited by 17,870 · see citing works
Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data
Elith*, J., H. Graham*, C., P. Anderson, R., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., J. Hijmans, R., Huettmann, F., R. Leathwick, J., Lehmann, A., et al. (2006) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x · Cited by 9,088 · see citing works
Self-citationExtinction risk from climate change
Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., Erasmus, B. F. N., de Siqueira, M. F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., et al. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02121 · Cited by 7,722 · see citing works
Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines
Butchart, S. H. M., Walpole, M., Collen, B., van Strien, A., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Almond, R. E. A., Baillie, J. E. M., Bomhard, B., Brown, C., Bruno, J., et al. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1187512 · Cited by 4,892 · see citing works
Status and Trends of Amphibian Declines and Extinctions Worldwide
Stuart, S. N., Chanson, J. S., Cox, N. A., Young, B. E., Rodrigues, A. S. L., Fischman, D. L., & Waller, R. W. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1103538 · Cited by 4,508 · see citing works
Climate change and evolutionary adaptation
Hoffmann, A. A., & Sgrò, C. M. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09670 · Cited by 3,262 · see citing works
The art of modelling range-shifting species: <i>The art of modelling range-shifting species</i>
Elith, J., Kearney, M., & Phillips, S. (2010) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.2041-210x.2010.00036.x · Cited by 2,813 · see citing works
Self-citationMechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges
Kearney, M., & Porter, W. P. (2009) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x · Cited by 2,224 · see citing works
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
Alan Pounds, J., Bustamante, M. R., Coloma, L. A., Consuegra, J. A., Fogden, M. P. L., Foster, P. N., La Marca, E., Masters, K. L., Merino-Viteri, A., Puschendorf, R., et al. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04246 · Cited by 1,960 · see citing works
Park, C. (1997) · Cited by 1,824 · see citing works
Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species
Mace, G. M., Collar, N., Gaston, K. J., Hilton‐Taylor, C., Akçakaya, H. R., Leader‐Williams, N., Milner‐Gulland, E. J., & Stuart, S. N. (2008) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01044.x · Cited by 1,403 · see citing works
Self-citationQuantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines
Houlahan, J. E., Findlay, C. S., Schmidt, B. R., Meyer, A. H., & Kuzmin, S. L. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35008052 · Cited by 1,332 · see citing works
Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges
Thuiller, W., Albert, C. H., Araújo, M. B., Berry, P. M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G. F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F. M., et al. (2007) · Perspectives in Plant Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004 · Cited by 1,263 · see citing works
Foden, W. B., Butchart, S. H. M., Stuart, S. N., Vié, J.-C., Akçakaya, H. R., Angulo, A., DeVantier, L. M., Gutsche, A., Turak, E., Cao, L., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065427 · Cited by 988 · see citing works
Self-citationThe challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Quéré, C. L., Marland, G., Raupach, M., & Wilson, C. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1783 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
Wildlife in a changing world : an analysis of the 2008 IUCN red list of threatened species
Vié, J., Hilton‐Taylor, C., & Stuart, S. N. (2009) · IUCN eBooks · Cited by 862 · see citing works
A TAXONOMY AND TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
Regan, H. M., Colyvan, M., & Burgman, M. A. (2002) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2002)012[0618:atatou]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 793 · see citing works
Keith, D. A., Akçakaya, H. R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G. F., Pearson, R. G., Phillips, S. J., Regan, H. M., Araújo, M. B., & Rebelo, T. G. (2008) · Biology Letters · doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049 · Cited by 728 · see citing works
Self-citationAdditive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity
Hof, C., Araújo, M. B., Jetz, W., & Rahbek, C. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10650 · Cited by 691 · see citing works
Biology of Australasian Frogs and Reptiles
Zweifel, R. G., Grigg, G. C., Shine, R., & Ehmann, H. F. W. (1986) · Copeia · doi:10.2307/1444976 · Cited by 534 · see citing works
Genetics of Climate Change Adaptation
Franks, S. J., & Hoffmann, A. A. (2012) · Annual Review of Genetics · doi:10.1146/annurev-genet-110711-155511 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers
Zurell, D., Berger, U., Cabral, J. S., Jeltsch, F., Meynard, C. N., Münkemüller, T., Nehrbass, N., Pagel, J., Reineking, B., Schröder, B., et al. (2010) · Oikos · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x · Cited by 365 · see citing works
Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk
Maclean, I. M. D., & Wilson, R. J. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1017352108 · Cited by 339 · see citing works
Making Consistent IUCN Classifications under Uncertainty
Akçakaya, H. R., Ferson, S., Burgman, M. A., et al. (2000) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2000.99125.x · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Self-citationEvolutionary Responses to Climate Change
Skelly, D. K., Joseph, L. N., Possingham, H. P., Freidenburg, L. K., Farrugia, T. J., Kinnison, M. T., & Hendry, A. P. (2007) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00764.x · Cited by 284 · see citing works
IUCN Species Survival Commission
Arengo, F. (2001) · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H., McInnes, K. L., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., Ricketts, J. H., & Page, C. M. (2007) · Australian meteorological magazine · doi:10.1071/es06016 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Fordham, D. A., Akçakaya, H. R., Araújo, M. B., Elith, J., Keith, D. A., Pearson, R. G., Auld, T. D., Mellin, C., Morgan, J. W., Regan, T. J., et al. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Self-citationUse and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity
Akçakaya, H. R., Butchart, S. H. M., Mace, G. M., Stuart, S. N., & Hilton‐Taylor, C. (2006) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01253.x · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Self-citationPotential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals
Levinsky, I., Skov, F., Svenning, J., & Rahbek, C. (2007) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-007-9181-7 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Bell, B. D., Carver, S., Mitchell, N. J., & Pledger, S. (2004) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2004.02.011 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Self-citationKeith, D. A., Auld, T. D., Ooi, M. K. J., et al. (2000) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/s0006-3207(99)00194-9 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationProtocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction
Keith, D. A., McCarthy, M. A., Regan, H. M., et al. (2004) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00663.x · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Self-citationUncertainty in Comparative Risk Analysis for Threatened Australian Plant Species
Burgman, M. A., Keith, D. A., & Walshe, T. V. (1999) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00430.x · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change as a threatening process
Westoby, M., & Burgman, M. A. (2006) · Austral Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1442-9993.2006.01657.x · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Relationships between geodiversity and vegetation in southeastern Australia
Keith, D. A. (2019) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.16227883 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationAre a Million Species at Risk?
Lee, H. (2012) · Island Press/Center for Resource Economics eBooks · doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-182-5_1 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Refining Risk Estimates Using Models
Cameron, A. (2012) · Island Press/Center for Resource Economics eBooks · doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-182-5_4 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- [31]31. Parry, M. L., O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- [41]41. Tyler, M.J. 1985. Reproductive modes in Australian Amphibia. Pages 265-67 in G. Grigg, R. Shine and H. Ehmann, editors. Biology of Australasian Frogs and Reptiles, Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, Sydney.
- [47]47. Keith, D. A., Mahony, M., Hines, H., Elith, J., Regan, T. J., Baumgartner, J. B., Hunter, D., Heard, G. W., Mitchell, N. J., Parris, K. M., Penman, T., Scheele, B., Simpson, C. C., Tingley, R., Tracy, C. R., West, M. & Akcakaya, H. R. (2014). Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, 28 (3), pp.810-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12234. Persistent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11343/52664
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers
Maxwell, S. L., Fuller, R. A., Brooks, T. M., & Watson, J. E. M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/536143a · Cited by 1,979 · see citing works
Brooks, T. M., Akçakaya, H. R., Burgess, N. D., Butchart, S. H. M., Hilton-Taylor, C., Hoffmann, M., Juffe-Bignoli, D., Kingston, N., MacSharry, B., Parr, M., et al. (2016) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2016.7 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationJarić, I., Lennox, R. J., Kalinkat, G., Cvijanović, G., & Radinger, J. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14518 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
- Authors
- KEITH, D. A., MAHONY, M., HINES, H., ELITH, J., REGAN, T. J., BAUMGARTNER, J. B., HUNTER, D., HEARD, G. W., MITCHELL, N. J., PARRIS, K. M., PENMAN, T., SCHEELE, B., SIMPSON, C. C., TINGLEY, R., TRACY, C. R., WEST, M., & AKÇAKAYA, H. R.
- Affiliations
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- University of Newcastle Australia (AU)
- Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service Brisbane Qld 4000 Australia
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- NSW Office of Environment & Heritage (AU)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- University of Wollongong (AU)
- Australian National University (AU)
- California State University, Fullerton (US)
- Department of Ecology and Evolution Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY 11794 U.S.A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Conservation Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-02-11
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 810-819
- ISSN
- 0888-8892 (ISSN-L)
- 1523-1739
- OpenAlex
- W2157406002
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 5
- FWCI
- 7.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Conservation Biology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- Research Online (University of Wollongong) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council (LP0989537)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Amphibian and Reptile Biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- IUCN Red List criteria, extinction risk, climate change, threatened species assessment, population decline (ecology), stochastic population models, amphibian conservation, conservation policy
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Anura, Australia, Conservation of Natural Resources, Risk Assessment, Biodiversity, Extinction, Biological, Endangered Species, Climate Change, Environmental Policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
