Cited by 1,369Animal Behavior and ReproductionPhysiological and biochemical adaptationsEvolution and Genetic Dynamics

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Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

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Merilä, Juha, Hendry, Andrew P.·2014·Evolutionary Applications

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Abstract

Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

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Figure 1 Examples of model species utilized in research on genetic underpinnings of climate change responses. (A) The great tit (Parus major), (B) red-billed gull (Larus novaehollandiae), (C) red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), (D) pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), (E) grove snail (Cepaea nemoralis) and (F) field mustard (Brassica rapa). Photograph credit: (A): S. Caro, (B): J. Merilä, (C): C. Kolacz, (D): A. P. Hendry, (E): M. Ozgo, (F): S. Franks.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Authors: Merilä, J., & Hendry, A. P.
Affiliations: University of Helsinki (FI)
McGill University (CA)
Corresponding author: Merilä, Juha
ORCID: Merilä, Juha
Hendry, Andrew P.
Venue: Evolutionary Applications
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2014-01
Volume: 7
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-14
ISSN: 1752-4563 (ISSN-L)
1752-4571
DOI: 10.1111/eva.12137
PMC: PMC3894893
OpenAlex: W2007545512
Cited by: 1,369
References: 119
Citations by year: 2026: 61 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 84 · 2023: 96 · 2022: 163 · 2021: 114 · 2020: 143 · 2019: 133 · 2018: 104 · 2017: 130 · 2016: 105 · 2015: 70 · 2014: 29
FWCI: 114.29
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Evolutionary Applications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
Funders: Academy of Finland (250435, 265211, 263722)
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Animal Behavior and Reproduction
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
Keywords: climate change, phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, adaptive evolution, natural selection, causal inference, alternative explanations, inference methods

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Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

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