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Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by inhalation of respiratory aerosol in the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreading event
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, an outbreak occurred following attendance of a symptomatic index case at a weekly rehearsal on 10 March of the Skagit Valley Chorale (SVC). After that rehearsal, 53 members of the SVC among 61 in attendance were confirmed or strongly suspected to have contracted COVID-19 and two died. Transmission by the aerosol route is likely; it appears unlikely that either fomite or ballistic droplet transmission could explain a substantial fraction of the cases. It is vital to identify features of cases such as this to better understand the factors that promote superspreading events. Based on a conditional assumption that transmission during this outbreak was dominated by inhalation of respiratory aerosol generated by one index case, we use the available evidence to infer the emission rate of aerosol infectious quanta. We explore how the risk of infection would vary with several influential factors: ventilation rate, duration of event, and deposition onto surfaces. The results indicate a best-estimate emission rate of 970 ± 390 quanta/h. Infection risk would be reduced by a factor of two by increasing the aerosol loss rate to 5 h−1 and shortening the event duration from 2.5 to 1 h.
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“Laboratory, field, modelling, and case studies have shown that airborne transmission through the inhalation of a virus-laden aerosol is important, if not dominant, for COVID-19.119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132”
From The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) · cites this paper as [125]
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Cites
Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575
Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1
van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D. H., Holbrook, M. G., Gamble, A., Williamson, B. N., Tamin, A., Harcourt, J. L., Thornburg, N. J., Gerber, S. I., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmc2004973 · Cited by 9,951
Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019
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Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
He, X., Lau, E. H. Y., Wu, P., Deng, X., Wang, J., Hao, X., Lau, Y. C., Wong, J. Y., Guan, Y., Tan, X., et al. (2020) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5 · Cited by 4,300
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Oran, D. P., & Topol, E. J. (2020) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m20-3012 · Cited by 2,348
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Read R, A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID‐19 and two are dead, Los Angeles Times
- ASHRAE, 2017, ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 52.2‐2017 Method of Testing General Ventilation Air‐Cleaning Devices for Removal Efficiency by Particle Size
- Read R, Scientists to choirs: Group singing can spread the coronavirus, despite what CDC may say, Los Angeles Times
- Peinado F, El virus se ceba con las voces del coro de la Zarzuela, El Pais
Cited by
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Airborne transmission of respiratory viruses
Wang, C. C., Prather, K. A., Sznitman, J., Jimenez, J. L., Lakdawala, S. S., Tüfekçi, Z., & Marr, L. C. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abd9149 · Cited by 1,631
Self-citationIt is time to address airborne transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Morawska, L., & Milton, D. K. (2020) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa939 · Cited by 1,189
Self-citationTransmissibility and transmission of respiratory viruses
Leung, N. H. L. (2021) · Nature Reviews Microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41579-021-00535-6 · Cited by 890
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic
Sachs, J. D., Karim, S. S. A., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Colombo, F., Barron, G. C., Espinosa, M. F., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., et al. (2022) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01585-9 · Cited by 842
Probable airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a poorly ventilated restaurant
Li, Y., Qian, H., Hang, J., Chen, X., Cheng, P., Ling, H., Wang, S., Liang, P., Li, J., Xiao, S., et al. (2021) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.107788 · Cited by 686
Metadata
- Authors
- Miller, S. L., Nazaroff, W. W., Jimenez, J. L., Boerstra, A., Buonanno, G., Dancer, S. J., Kurnitski, J., Marr, L. C., Morawska, L., & Noakes, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- REHVA (Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Associations) BBA Binnenmilieu Den Haag The Netherlands
- Università degli studi di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale (IT)
- Edinburgh Napier University (GB)
- Tallinn University of Technology (EE)
- Virginia Tech (US)
- International Laboratory for Air Quality and Heath (ILAQH) WHO Collaborating Centre for Air Quality and Health School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Queensland Australia
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Miller, Shelly L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Indoor Air
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2020-10-13
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 314-323
- ISSN
- 0905-6947 (ISSN-L)
- 1600-0668
- PMC
- PMC7537089
- OpenAlex
- W3089975294
- Cited by
- 734
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 31 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 79 · 2023: 101 · 2022: 182 · 2021: 229 · 2020: 52
- FWCI
- 79.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Indoor Air (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Edinburgh Napier Research Repository (Edinburgh Napier University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca - Università degli Studi di Cassino (submittedVersion)
- Edinburgh Napier Research Repository (Edinburgh Napier University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- VTechWorks (Virginia Tech) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Infection Control and Ventilation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, superspreading events, aerosol deposition, ventilation rate, infection risk, choral rehearsal, indoor air quality
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Time Factors, Ventilation, Washington, Fomites, Singing
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