Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest
Abstract
Abstract Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.
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Recent warming trends have been associated with an increase in fire activity in some regions.
“Recent warming trends have been associated with an increase in fire activity in some regions (Hennessy et al., 2005; Westerling et al., 2006; Flannigan et al., 2009; Spracklen et al., 2009), but whether or not this is a manifestation of global climate change remains controversial.”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Flannigan et al., 2009
Cites
Wotton, B. M. (2009) · Environmental and Ecological Statistics · doi:10.1007/s10651-007-0084-2 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
The impact of climate change on wildfire severity: A regional forecast for Northern California
Fried, J. S., Torn, M. S., & Mills, E. (2004) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000024667.89579.ed · Cited by 250 · see citing works
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The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., D’Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., et al. (2011) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595.x · Cited by 1,230 · see citing works
“However, anthropogenic climate change may increase the number of days suitable for burning (Kasischke, 2000), with a corresponding increase in the frequency, intensity and areal extent of fires (Kurz & Apps, 1999; Kasischke & Turetsky, 2006; Flannigan et al., 2009).”
BackgroundForest health and global change
Trumbore, S., Brando, P., & Hartmann, H. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aac6759 · Cited by 1,042 · see citing works
Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate
Liu, Y., Stanturf, J., & Goodrick, S. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002 · Cited by 791 · see citing works
Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl080959 · Cited by 680 · see citing works
Managing forests and fire in changing climates
Stephens, S. L., Agee, J. K., Fulé, P. Z., North, M. P., Romme, W. H., Swetnam, T. W., & Turner, M. G. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1240294 · Cited by 464 · see citing works
The North American tree‐ring fire‐scar network
Margolis, E. Q., Guiterman, C. H., Chavardès, R. D., Coop, J. D., Copes‐Gerbitz, K., Dawe, D. A., Falk, D. A., Johnston, J. D., Larson, E., Li, H., et al. (2022) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.4159 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Can ash from smoldering fires increase peatland soil pH?
Marcotte, A. L., Limpens, J., Stoof, C. R., & Stoorvogel, J. J. (2022) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf21150 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
- Authors
- FLANNIGAN, M., STOCKS, B., TURETSKY, M., & WOTTON, M.
- Affiliations
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- Michigan State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- FLANNIGAN, MIKE
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-02-06
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 549-560
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2135072911
- Cited by
- 732
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 70 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 27 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 32
- FWCI
- 19.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- climate change, fire management, fire weather, fire suppression effectiveness, burned area
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