Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Liu, Yongqiang; Stanturf, John; Goodrick, Scott

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002

Cited by 791Fire effects on ecosystemsHydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate variability and models

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Liu, Yongqiang, Stanturf, John, Goodrick, Scott·2010·Forest Ecology and Management

DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002

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Abstract

The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070-2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and future climate conditions, respectively. It is shown that future wildfire potential increases significantly in the United States, South America, central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and Australia. Fire potential moves up by one level in these regions, from currently low to future moderate potential or from moderate to high potential. Relative changes are the largest and smallest in southern Europe and Australia, respectively. The period with the KBDI greater than 400 (a simple definition for fire season in this study) becomes a few months longer. The increased fire potential is mainly caused by warming in the U.S., South America, and Australia and by the combination of warming and drying in the other regions. Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection. The results suggest dramatic increases in wildfire potential that will require increased future resources and management efforts for disaster prevention and recovery.

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Authors: Liu, Y., Stanturf, J., & Goodrick, S.
Affiliations: US Forest Service (US)
Corresponding author: Liu, Yongqiang
ORCID: Liu, Yongqiang
Stanturf, John
Goodrick, Scott
Venue: Forest Ecology and Management
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2010-02
Volume: 259
Issue: 4
Pages: 685-697
ISSN: 0378-1127 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002
OpenAlex: W2049366165
Cited by: 791
References: 80
Citations by year: 2026: 47 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 78 · 2022: 74 · 2021: 78 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 55 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 38 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 34 · 2012: 29
FWCI: 14.32
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Forest Ecology and Management (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: climate change, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, drought, climate change projections, global climate models, emission scenarios, warming and drying, fire season length, fire management, disaster prevention

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Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

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