Modelling climate-change-induced nonlinear thresholds in cephalopod population dynamics
Open accessAbstract
Abstract A significant global challenge lies in our current inability to anticipate, and therefore prepare for, critical ecological thresholds (i.e. tipping points in ecosystems). This deficit stems largely from an inadequate understanding of the many complex interactions between species and the environment at the ecosystem level, and the paucity of mechanistic models relating environment to population dynamics at the species level. In marine ecosystems, abundant, short‐lived and fast‐growing species such as anchovies or squids, consistently function as ‘keystone’ groups whose population dynamics affect entire ecosystems. Increasing exploitation coupled with climate change impacts has the potential to affect these ecological groups and consequently, the entire marine ecosystem. There are currently very few models that predict the impact of climate change on these keystone groups. Here we use a combination of individual‐based bioenergetics and stage‐structured population models to characterize the fundamental capacity of cephalopods to respond to climate change. We demonstrate the potential for, and mechanisms behind, two unfavourable climate‐change‐induced thresholds in future population dynamics. Although one threshold was the direct consequence of a decrease in incubation time caused by ocean warming, the other threshold was linked to survivorship, implying the possibility of management through a modification of fishing mortality. Additional substantive changes in phenology were also predicted, with a possible loss in population resilience. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting complex nonlinear dynamics with a reasonably simplistic mechanistic model, and highlight the necessity of developing such approaches for other species if attempts to moderate the impact of climate change on natural resources are to be effective.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C., & Walker, B. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35098000 · Cited by 7,510 · see citing works
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J. M., Davis, G. F., de Vries, B. J. M., Fenhann, J. V., Gaffin, S. R., Gregory, K., Griibler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., et al. (2000) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 3,423 · see citing works
Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition
Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A. (2006) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x · Cited by 973 · see citing works
Tolerance of riverine plants to flooding and exposure indicated by water regime
BLANCH, S. J., Ganf, G. G., & Walker, K. F. (1999) · Regulated Rivers Research & Management · doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1646(199901/06)15:1/3 · Cited by 828 · see citing works
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J. A., Hansen, J. E., Keeling, R. F., Parker, D. E., & Somerville, R. C. J. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1136843 · Cited by 677 · see citing works
Slow Recovery from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift
van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2007) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/516845 · Cited by 557 · see citing works
Stenseth, N. C., & Mysterud, A. (2002) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.212519399 · Cited by 523 · see citing works
LONGEVITY CAN BUFFER PLANT AND ANIMAL POPULATIONS AGAINST CHANGING CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
Morris, W. F., Pfister, C. A., Tuljapurkar, S. D., Haridas, C. V., Boggs, C. L., Boyce, M. S., Bruna, E. M., Church, D. R., Coulson, T. N., Doak, D. F., et al. (2008) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/07-0774.1 · Cited by 504 · see citing works
SEA ICE RETREAT ALTERS THE BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE BERING SEA CONTINENTAL SHELF
Mueter, F. J., & Litzow, M. A. (2008) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/07-0564.1 · Cited by 488 · see citing works
Which ecological indicators can robustly detect effects of fishing?
Fulton, E. A., SMITH, A., & Punt, A. E. (2005) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.12.012 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
(2005) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9780470995310 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
Climate change and Australian marine life
Poloczanska, E., Babcock, R., Butler, A., Hobday, A., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kunz, T., Matear, R., Milton, D., Okey, T., & Richardson, A. (2007) · Oceanography and Marine Biology/Oceanography and marine biology - an annual review · doi:10.1201/9781420050943.ch8 · Cited by 374 · see citing works
Rosa, R., & Seibel, B. A. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0806886105 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Caswell, H., & Takada, T. (2004) · Theoretical Population Biology · doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2003.09.007 · Cited by 286 · see citing works
Peters, D. P. C., Bestelmeyer, B. T., & Turner, M. G. (2007) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9055-6 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Rodhouse, P. G., & Nigmatullin, C. M. (1996) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.1996.0090 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
A review of cephalopod–environment interactions in European Seas
Pierce, G. J., Valavanis, V. D., Guerra, Á., Jereb, P., Orsi-Relini, L., Bellido-Millán, J. M., Katara, I., Piatkowski, U., Pereira, J. M., Balguerías, E., et al. (2008) · Hydrobiologia · doi:10.1007/s10750-008-9489-7 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Santos, M. B., Clarke, M. R., & Pierce, G. J. (2001) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/s0165-7836(01)00236-3 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Rowell, D. P. (2005) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0068-6 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
Greene, C. H., Pershing, A. J., Cronin, T. M., et al. (2008) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/07-0550.1 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Jackson, G. D., & Domeier, M. L. (2003) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-002-1005-4 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Contamin, R., & Ellison, A. (2009) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/08-0109.1 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Bellido-Millán, J. M., Pierce, G. J., & Wang, J. (2001) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/s0165-7836(01)00228-4 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Rodriguez‐Rúa, A., Pozuelo, I., Prado, M. A., Gómez, M. J., & Bruzón, M. A. (2005) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-005-1621-x · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Rosas‐Luis, R., Salinas‐Zavala, C. A., Koch, V., del Monte‐Luna, P., & Morales‐Zárate, M. V. (2008) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.036 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long‐term change?
Wagner, C., & Adrian, R. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01833.x · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Reproductive status of Octopus pallidus, and its relationship to age and size
Leporati, S. C., Pecl, G. T., & Semmens, J. M. (2008) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-008-1033-9 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationGrowth of common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) in cages suspended from rafts
Chapela, A., González, Á. F., Dawe, E. G., Rocha, F., & Guerra, Á. (2006) · Scientia Marina · doi:10.3989/scimar.2006.70n1121 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Steer, M., Pecl, G. T., & Moltschaniwskyj, N. A. (2003) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps261175 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationThe effects of environmental factors on the embryonic survival of the Patagonian squid Loligo gahi
Cinti, A., Barón, P. J., & Rivas, A. L. (2004) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2004.05.017 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Neer, J., Rose, K., & Cortés, E. (2007) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps329211 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Tian, Y. (2009) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2009.06.005 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Xavier, J. C., Wood, A. G., Rodhouse, P. G., et al. (2007) · Marine and Freshwater Research · doi:10.1071/mf06237 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Modelling size-at-age in wild immature female octopus: a bioenergetics approach
André, J., Pecl, G. T., Grist, E., Semmens, J. M., Haddon, M., & Leporati, S. C. (2009) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08035 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationLiao, C., Chiang, K., & Tsai, J. (2006) · Environmental Toxicology · doi:10.1002/tox.20169 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Sauer, W. H. H., Gleadall, I. G., Downey-Breedt, N., Doubleday, Z., Gillespie, G., Haimovici, M., Ibáñez, C. M., Katugin, O. N., Leporati, S., Lipinski, M. R., et al. (2021) · Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture · doi:10.1080/23308249.2019.1680603 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
European Cephalopods distribution under climate-change scenarios
Schickele, A., Francour, P., & Raybaud, V. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-83457-w · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Global patterns of coastal cephalopod diversity under climate change
Boavida-Portugal, J., Guilhaumon, F., Rosa, R., & Araújo, M. B. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.740781 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Borges, F. O., Guerreiro, M., Santos, C. P., Paula, J. R., & Rosa, R. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.1018766 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“Indeed, temperature (and thermal stress) has been shown to promote a decrease in egg incubation time, hatchling size, weight at first sexual maturity, and average generation time (Andre et al., 2010).”
BackgroundLima, F., Ángeles-González, L., Leite, T., & Lima, S. (2020) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps13486 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Quetglas, A., Keller, S., & Massutí, E. (2015) · Fisheries Management and Ecology · doi:10.1111/fme.12131 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
- Authors
- ANDRÉ, J., HADDON, M., & PECL, G. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-08-19
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 2866-2875
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W1902132683
- Cited by
- 61
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 2.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Cephalopods and Marine Biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Marine animal studies overview
- Keywords
- cephalopods, climate change, ecological thresholds, tipping points, nonlinear population dynamics, stage-structured population model, ocean warming, incubation time, survivorship, fishing mortality, phenology, population resilience, keystone species, marine fisheries management
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
