Global climate changes over time shape the environmental niche distribution of octopus insularis in the Atlantic ocean
Abstract
In the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus insularis (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) Leite and Haimovici, 2008 inhabits warm and shallow habitats, where it is one of the main targets of cephalopod fisheries. Considering the current trend of increasing seawater temperature, warm-water species are expected to expand their geographic distribution ranges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an important tool to help describe likely changes in geographic distribution patterns of a species in different climatic scenarios. To evaluate changes in the distribution of Octopus insularis over time, the maximum entropy approach was used, which estimated a suitable climatic niche for Octopus under 5 scenarios of global climate change. Four environmental variables were chosen to model the suitable climatic niche of O. insularis in the present, past, and future scenarios. The ENM in different climatic scenarios showed good validation and pointed out an increase of the suitable niche for O. insularis settlement, from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya) up to future scenarios. In the future projections, suitable niche space will potentially increase in the tropical Atlantic compared to the current distribution. Modeling pointed out the possibility of expansion from the current range of the species to the temperate northern Atlantic, temperate South America, and temperate South Africa. This may cause potential threats, such as possible extinction of endemic species, habitat displacement of native octopuses, and reorganizations in the trophic chain.
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Research employing SDM to project potential biogeographical impacts of marine climate change on octopuses remains very scarce, with few studies focusing on species of the OVSC and at this scale.
“However, research employing this modelling approach to project potential biogeographical impacts of marine climate change on octopuses remains very scarce (Hermosilla et al., 2011; Lima et al., 2020; A ́ ngeles-Gonza ́ lez et al., 2021; Schickele et al., 2021; Boavida-Portugal et al., 2022), with few studies focusing on species of the OVSC and at this scale.”
From Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of the ‘Octopus vulgaris species complex’ (2022) · cites this paper as Lima et al., 2020
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Self-citationMaloney, B., Ramos, E. A., Bennice, C. O., Young, F., & Magnasco, M. O. (2023) · Frontiers in Physiology · doi:10.3389/fphys.2023.1162807 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Côrtes, M. O., dos Santos, B. B., de Freitas, R. H. A., O’Brien, C. E., & Leite, T. (2025) · Current Zoology · doi:10.1093/cz/zoaf023 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationThreats and challenges for the conservation of marine molluscs in the southwestern Atlantic
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Self-citationCubillos, L. A., Mora, P., Olguín, A., Barahona, N., Miguel Araya, C., & Ibáñez, C. M. (2025) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2025.107578 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Octopus insularis, stout reef octopus
Leite, T., de Lima, F. D., Morillo‐Velarde, P. S., Dantas, R. J. D. S., González-Gómez, R., & Haimovici, M. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-820639-3.00016-9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationPopulation genomics of a cephalopod species reflect oceanographic barriers and inbreeding patternsPreprint
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Self-citationKore, L. G., Johnson, B. M., Winters, M., & Onthank, K. L. (2023) · Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom · doi:10.1017/s0025315423000644
Cui, Y., Gao, X., Yang, S., Li, S., & Yang, L. (2025) · Journal of Marine Science and Engineering · doi:10.3390/jmse13091806
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Self-citationModelling Palaeodistributions in Marine Environments: A Review
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Self-citationMunguía-Prieto, S., Valenzuela‐Quiñonez, F., Pliego-Cárdenas, R., & Jesús‐Bonilla, V. S. D. (2026) · Regional Studies in Marine Science · doi:10.1016/j.rsma.2026.105559
- Authors
- Lima, F., Ángeles-González, L., Leite, T., & Lima, S.
- Affiliations
- Postgraduate Program in Systematics and Evolution, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, 59978-900 Natal, RN, Brazil
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
- Department of Ecology and Zoology, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-900 Florianópolis, SC, Brazil
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (BR)
- Venue
- Marine Ecology Progress Series
- Publisher
- Inter-Research Science Center
- Published
- 2020-10-15
- Volume
- 652
- Pages
- 111-121
- ISSN
- 0171-8630 (ISSN-L)
- 1616-1599
- OpenAlex
- W3086018335
- Cited by
- 26
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 5
- FWCI
- 2.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Marine Ecology Progress Series (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Cephalopods and Marine Biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Keywords
- Octopus insularis, octopus distribution, climate change, ecological niche modeling, maximum entropy, range expansion, Last Glacial Maximum, future climate scenarios, Atlantic Ocean, cephalopod fisheries, habitat displacement, extinction risk, tropical Atlantic
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