Cited by 259Physiological and biochemical adaptationsInsect and Arachnid Ecology and BehaviorSpecies Distribution and Climate Change

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Who likes it hot? A global analysis of the climatic, ecological, and evolutionary determinants of warming tolerance in ants

Diamond, Sarah E., Sorger, D. Magdalena, Hulcr, Jiri, Pelini, Shannon L., Toro, Israel Del, Hirsch, Christopher, Oberg, Erik, Dunn, Robert R.·2012·Global Change Biology

DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02542.x

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Abstract

Effects of climate warming on wild populations of organisms are expected to be greatest at higher latitudes, paralleling greater anticipated increases in temperature in these regions. Yet, these expectations assume that populations in different regions are equally susceptible to the effects of warming. This is unlikely to be the case. Here, we develop a series of predictive models for physiological thermal tolerances in ants based on current and future climates. We found that tropical ants have lower warming tolerances, a metric of susceptibility to climate warming, than temperate ants despite greater increases in temperature at higher latitudes. Using climatic, ecological and phylogenetic data, we refine our predictions of which ants (across all regions) were most susceptible to climate warming. We found that ants occupying warmer and more mesic forested habitats at lower elevations are the most physiologically susceptible to deleterious effects of climate warming. Phylogenetic history was also a strong indicator of physiological susceptibility. In short, we find that ants that live in the canopies of hot, tropical forest are the most at risk, globally, from climate warming. Unfortunately this is where many, perhaps most, ant and other species on Earth live.

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Background
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Thermal physiology, foraging pattern, and worker body size interact to influence coexistence in sympatric polymorphic harvester ants (Messor spp.)
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“Indeed, physiological traits tend to be phylogenetically conserved (e.g., Kellermann et al. 2012; Diamond et al. 2012; Cooper et al. 2010), which means closely related species will generally have similar physiological limits (Diamond and Chick 2018).”
Background
Too cold to handle: Climatic constraints on arboreal ants in temperate forests
Kirchner, M., Sorenson, C. E., & Youngsteadt, E. (2025) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2656.70047 · Cited by 8
Toward a global repository of insect traits ( GRIT )
Cardoso, P., Baker, N. J., Boieiro, M., Bonte, D., Borges, P. A. V., Braby, M. F., Branco, V. V., Chobanov, D., Correia, L., Dalton, D. T., et al. (2025) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.70035 · Cited by 10
“Among these, critical thermal limits (CT min and CT max ) are particularly informative, as they vary geographically (Diamond, Sorger, et al., 2012) and closely track insect responses to experimental warming (Diamond, Nichols, et al., 2012).”
Ontogenetic variation in metabolic rate–temperature relationships during larval development
Powers, S. D., Grayson, K. L., Martinez, E., & Agosta, S. J. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Biology · doi:10.1242/jeb.247912 · Cited by 8
Correlated evolution of thermal niches and functional physiology in tropical freshwater fishes
Culumber, Z. W., & Tobler, M. (2018) · Journal of Evolutionary Biology · doi:10.1111/jeb.13260 · Cited by 9
Genome-wide sequencing reveals geographical variations in the thermal adaptation of an aquaculture species with frequent seedling introductions
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Stingless bee foragers experience more thermally stressful microclimates and have wider thermal tolerance breadths than other worker subcastes
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Acclimation to moderate temperatures can have strong negative impacts on heat tolerance of arctic arthropods
Sørensen, J. G., Noer, N. K., Kristensen, T. N., & Bahrndorff, S. (2024) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14573 · Cited by 8
Are thermal constraints shaping foraging ant assemblages in tropical regions? Integrating thermal and morphological traits to understand consequences of land‐use transformation
Leong, C., Wang, R., Cheung, S., Jaitrong, W., & Guénard, B. (2022) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12619 · Cited by 6
“…200 m. Measurement of physiological response on upper thermal limit Protocol for measuring the CTmax of the different ant species was modified after Diamond et al. (2012), with CTmax values determined by the loss of muscle control which represents the most ecologically relevant endpoint (Huey et…”
A simple method to account for thermal boundary layers during the estimation of CTmax in small ectotherms
Corley, R. B., Dawson, W., & Bishop, T. R. (2023) · Journal of Thermal Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103673 · Cited by 6
“…temporal distribution of a species (Bishop et al., 2017; Boyle et al., 2021; Diamond and Chick, 2018; Sunday et al., 2014), predict potential trophic cascades (da Silva et al., 2023), and inform on where climate warming may have the most acute impacts (Deutsch et al., 2008; Diamond et al., 2012).”
Background
Social Factors in Heat Survival: Multiqueen Desert Ant Colonies Have Higher and More Uniform Heat Tolerance
Baudier, K. M., Ostwald, M. M., Haney, B. R., Calixto, J. M., Cossio, F. J., & Fewell, J. H. (2022) · Physiological and Biochemical Zoology · doi:10.1086/721251 · Cited by 6
“…are particularly tractable models for this type of work because they are highly social, globally abundant, and, as small-bodied poikilotherms, highly affected by environmental temperatures (Dunn et al. 2009; Diamond et al. 2012, 2016; Diamond and Chick 2017; Penick et al. 2017; Yilmaz et al. 2019).”
Background
Impact of global warming on insects: are tropical species more vulnerable than temperate species?Preprint
Johansson, F., Orizaola, G., & Nilsson‐Örtman, V. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/728352 · Cited by 6
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Smith, M. Q. R. P., Latkova, L., & Snook, R. R. (2025) · Behavioral Ecology · doi:10.1093/beheco/araf049 · Cited by 5
“Ectotherm thermal tolerance is typically inferred using Critical Thermal Limits (CTL: CT max /CT min ; Angilletta 2009), the temperature boundaries beyond which biological functions fail (eg Kellermann et al. 2009, 2012; Diamond et al. 2012; Hoffmann et al. 2013; Kingsolver et al. 2013).”
Review of Distribution Modeling in Ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) Biogeographic Studies
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“Of the 44 studies evaluated, 23 used only climate variables (see for example Chaladze, 2012; Diamond et al., 2012; Koch et al., 2018).”
BackgroundInfluential
Draft Aphaenogaster genomes expand our view of ant genome size variation across climate gradients
Lau, M. K., Ellison, A. M., Nguyen, A., Penick, C. A., Demarco, B., Gotelli, N. J., Sanders, N. J., Dunn, R. R., & Cahan, S. H. (2019) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.6447 · Cited by 5
“Multiple studies support the perspective that a more complete knowledge of ant genetics will increase our understanding of ant responses to environmental change (Diamond et al., 2012; Nygaard and Wurm, 2015; Stanton-Geddes et al., 2016; Boomsma et al., 2017; Penick et al., 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Functional richness shows spatial scale dependency in Pheidole ant assemblages from Neotropical savannas
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“Considering that tropical ant species are already close to their upper thermal tolerances (Diamond et al., 2012), it is likely that phys‐ iological limitations shape the outcome of the biotic interactions.”
Background
Critical thermal maxima in neotropical ants at colony, population, and community levels
Nascimento, G., Câmara, T., & Arnán, X. (2024) · Bulletin of Entomological Research · doi:10.1017/s0007485324000567 · Cited by 4
“Studies have looked at how ant CT max relates to microhabitat use (e.g. Baudier et al ., 2015, 2018; Kaspari et al ., 2015), evolutionary history (e.g. Diamond et al ., 2012; Arnan and Blüthgen, 2015), and body size (e.g. Kaspari et al ., 2015; Verble-Pearson et al ., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluential
Thermal Stress and Its Effects on the Gut Microbiome of Parthenium Beetles
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“The systematic removal of smaller-sized workers perceived as vulnerable to the critical thermal maximum (CT max ) is suggested to be preventive [59,60].”
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses of Protective Ant-Plant Mutualisms to Environmental Changes
McKey, D., & Blatrix, R. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316671825.012 · Cited by 4
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“Global analyses of thermal safety margins show that organisms in lower latitudes have narrower buffers between their upper thermal limits and ambient temperatures, making them more vulnerable to additional warming (Deutsch et al. 2008; Diamond et al. 2012; Sunday et al. 2014).”
Self-citation
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Effects of elevated CO 2 and temperature on the performance of a diet specialized neotropical herbivore and its host plant
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“Consequently, even small temperature increases can lead to declines in performance (Deutsch et al., 2008; Diamond et al., 2012), altered larval development rates (Klapwijk et al., 2010; Williams et al., 2003), and reductions in adult size that reduce fitness and survival (Berger et al., 2008).”
Seasonality, worker caste, and the interaction between island area and habitat type influence the thermal tolerance of ants on fragmented habitat islands
Zhao, Y., Wu, C., Leong, C., Li, J., Lu, W. H., Xu, Y., Si, X., & Sanders, N. J. (2025) · Marine Life Science & Technology · doi:10.1007/s42995-025-00288-8 · Cited by 3
“The CTmax assays were started at 36 °C, following the common starting temperature of other studies (Bujan et al. 2020; Diamond et al. 2012).”
Insect Communities
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Self-citation
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Self-citation

Authors: Diamond, S. E., Sorger, D. M., Hulcr, J., Pelini, S. L., Toro, I. D., Hirsch, C., Oberg, E., & Dunn, R. R.
Affiliations: North Carolina State University (US)
Department of Biology North Carolina State University Raleigh NC 27695‐7617 USA
Harvard University (US)
University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
Texas A&M University (US)
Corresponding author: Diamond, Sarah E.
ORCID: Diamond, Sarah E.
Sorger, D. Magdalena
Pelini, Shannon L.
Toro, Israel Del
Oberg, Erik
Dunn, Robert R.
Venue: Global Change Biology
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2011-10-09
Volume: 18
Issue: 2
Pages: 448-456
ISSN: 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
1365-2486
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02542.x
OpenAlex: W2141603736
Cited by: 259
References: 52
Citations by year: 2026: 24 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 22 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 8
FWCI: 11.30
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Keywords: ants, warming tolerance, heat tolerance, global warming, latitudinal gradient, tropical forest canopy, habitat moisture, altitude, phylogeny, climate change vulnerability

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Who likes it hot? A global analysis of the climatic, ecological, and evolutionary determinants of warming tolerance in ants

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